La Vigie Nr 111 : Venezuela, an efficacy crisis | The energy coefficient | Lorgnette : French-Italien Crisis

Posted on by A M

La Vigie Nr 111 (13 FEB 2019)

Venezuela, an efficacy crisis

The crisis in Venezuela is ambiguous: N. Maduro does not convince because of the country’s economic collapse, but seeing D. Trump and J. Bolton as the guarantors of democracy leaves one cautious. Venezuela is experiencing a twofold crisis of efficiency. It was a social inefficiency in the past (which led H. Chavez to power), it is an economic inefficiency today. We must therefore be careful not to adopt positions that are too clear-cut for both sides.

The energy coefficient

The energy coefficient has become a main factor in the major strategy of States and the reclassification of powers. Three rapid developments are underway, the accelerating gas revolution (LNG, shale oil, Mediterranean gas), the climatic transition that is trampling on and the digital energy that is taking off. The planet’s energy transition is a very fluid sector.

Lorgnette : Frenc-Italian crisis.

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JDOK

La Vigie Nr 110 : Demographic impact | NATO : friend’s discord | Lorgnette : The Aachen chapel treaty

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La Vigie Nr 110 (30 JAN 2019)

Demographic impact

The strategic impact of the demographic revolution that has seen the world’s population triple since the end of the Second World War is considerable. To go around is to evaluate the new geopolitics of the peoples, to question the African trajectory and to worry about the residual relevance of a world governance that this revolution has jostled.

NATO : friend’s discord

The Atlantic Alliance was born out of war, in the face of the Soviet threat. It had then been recycled, between European unification and an expeditionary model. But threats to the east or south were no longer enough to maintain its cohesion, while European disunity and D. Trump’s anti-atlantic instinct dissolved it deeply. The Alliance seems to be at the end of its rope.

Lorgnette : The Aachen chapel treaty

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JDOK

La Vigie Nr 109 : A tactical reading of the Yellow vests – A Europe torn apart – Lorgnette : Righteous Canada ?

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La Vigie Nr 109 (16 JAN 2019)

A tactical reading of the Yellow vests

The movement of the yellow vests continues. Tactically, it shows the conjunction of digital mobilization and micro-local territorial rooting, moving from social networks to blocking road networks. Faced with the forces of law and order, he shows an extreme fluidity that manifests the opposition of two styles, whether facing the forces of law and order or government communication: it is gas against solid, swarm against stick, humour against austere speech. Faced with this political disruption, the government would be inspired to change its software.

A Europe torn apart

The June European elections will only be a pretext for counting. Yet the political storm has spread across the continent as the EU looks to the future of its collective governance. For lack of sufficient strategic depth, it has lost its initial centrality, its civilizational homogeneity and its utility for the European peoples. This is the next challenge after the Yellow Vests.

Lorgnette : A righteous Canada ?

 

Click here to access the French website and read the articles

JDOK

La Vigie Nr 108 (2 JAN 2019) : Clarification in Syria | Perspective 2019 | Lorgnette : Fraternity

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Lettre de La Vigie (2 JAN 2019)

Clarification in Syria 

President Trump’s decision to withdraw French troops from Syria is a clear indication of realism. Turkish President Erdogan hoped to take advantage of this to defeat the Syrian Kurds, but they reached an agreement with the legal government in Damascus, which found a way to regain even more control over its territory. As for France, it still gives moral lessons without effect.

Perspective 2019

The strategic deregulation observed in 2018 should continue even if most of the security of France will be played first on the domestic scene with the overhaul of the current political project and the reconstitution of a common base with neighbors themselves weakened. The world march should take a more regional turn and global governance continue to deteriorate.

Lorgnette : Fraternity

Click here to access the French website and read the articles

JDOK

La Vigie Nr 107 (19 DEC 2018) | 2018 : Changing world | 18 month of French foreign policy | Lorgnette : Merry Christmas

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Lettre de La Vigie (19 DEC 2018).


2018 :  Changing world

In 2018 we have entered a new strategic era, that of general deregulation. In an intense and disordered strategic flow, the conflictuality of the planet has evolved, the modalities of the exercise of power have been affirmed and diversified, laborious transitions and arbitrations have begun. But still no stable state on the horizon.

France : 18 month of foreign policy

President E. Macron had put two words on his foreign policy agenda: Europe and pragmatism. In the realm of pragmatism, there is a welcome discretion in the Middle East, the lack of purpose in the South, the unconvincing promotion of a major Asian strategy, a misguided American policy. For Europe, despite high ambitions based on old software, the results are very disappointing. The former probably explains the latter.

Lorgnette : Merry Christmas

Click here to access the French website and purchase the articles

JDOK

La Vigie Nr 106 (5 DEC 2018) : French-Russian parallel | Sensitive migrations | Lorgnette : Gilets (Free reading)

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La Vigie Nr 106 (5 DEC 2018) (free reading).

French-Russian parallel: here is a  analysis that examines the paradox of Franco-Russian relations, ancient relations between two countries comparable in their temperament and which have experienced a parallel history, trusting relations and the cold war opposed. With today’s Russia France maintains a critical and demanding dialogue that will lead to a European revival from the Atlantic to the Urals.

Sensitive migrations : Some believe that the migration crisis is a peak now behind us. It ignores the persistence of the economic motive for these migrations; it omits the development of a demographic gradient between the two shores of the Mediterranean, between a Europe at circa 600 Mh in 2050 and an Africa that will increase to 2.5 Mh. The security approach is now the only one proposed, without thinking about the renewal of an encalminated development policy.

Lorgnette : About “gilets“.

To read Nr 106, click here to reach the French version.

JDOK

La Vigie Nr 105 : British isolate | Finishing wars | Lorgnette : Cyberpeace

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La Vigie Nr 105, 21 NOV 2018

To read the French version, click here.

British isolate

Maybe the Brexit will take place. First of all, it shows a British representation of the common destiny, ultimately different from Churchill’s usual preference for the open sea. There is a British exceptionalism and above all a pride of English history in the 20th century that largely explains the Brexit decision. It should be noted that this decision raises complicated regional issues (Scotland, Northern Ireland) but that London should find ways to forge fluid alliances, perhaps better suited to the 21st century. The departure of the United Kingdom does not open the door to important developments in terms of European defence and Paris will have an interest in maintaining the “cordial agreement” that succeeded a century ago in bringing the two old nations together.

Finishing wars

Here is a review of some of the recent wars waged by France, whose conclusions have left a deep mark on it or have ended badly for not having been able to establish real lasting peace: the two world wars, the Algerian war, the Cold war, Mali.

Lorgnette : Cyberpeace

 

JDOK

La Vigie Nr 103 (24 OCT 2018) : Unstable Germany – Contested Deterrence – Lorgnette : Civilians that have been armed

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Unstable Germany

Contrary to popular belief, Germany is currently in a state of profound instability. It is obviously political, but also economic, social and strategic. As a result, it follows now more than ever its sole geopolitical interests, both in the European area and in the global arena. It therefore remains very suspicious of improbable European advances that it does not consider to be the solution to its problems. France must understand the return of this German question before committing itself to a flamboyant strategy that does not meet the expectations of its partner.

Contested Deterrence

Nuclear deterrence has contributed to the strategic regulation of global tensions during the Cold War and beyond. But today it is less effective and more and more often contested, diverted or even replaced by other conflicting modes that progressively invalidate its relevance. Inventory of these disputes.

Lorgnette : Civilians that have been armed

JDOK

To read it, click here to get the French issue.

La Vigie Nr 102 (10 OCT 2018) : Universal service takes it time – Uzbekistan and the Great game –

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The Universal national service (UNS) takes its time

The UNS takes its time. The development of the SNU is laborious, it is that the stake is of importance since it aims at a resocialization of France to reinforce the national cohesion. To achieve this essential objective, which must take its place in the training of young people, it is necessary to develop an entire system based on a broad preparation process leading to a call for civic responsibility by the civilian majority. Developing and implementing it will take time.

Uzbekistan and the great game

Central Asia is undergoing rapid changes, marked in particular by the ongoing change in Uzbekistan. By reconciling with Tajikistan, organizing a regional forum, proposing a common approach on Afghanistan in the face of the emergence of Islamic state affiliates, Tashkent shows an interesting dynamism. But undoubtedly, even if political control remains strong, Uzbekistan is seeking to revive its economy and above all to take advantage of the Chinese project of new silk routes: for Tashkent, this means reconnecting with a glorious past that has ensured the region’s prosperity for over a millennium.

Lorgnette’s view : Reflux

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La Vigie Nr 101, (26 SEP 2018) : The return of military services – Strategic genetic coding – Lorgnette’s view: CHOD’s strategic vision

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La Vigie, Nr 101, 26 Sept 2018

The return of military services

The universal national service (SNU) which is established in France will have very little military character: military service is often considered obsolete. However, several countries are in the process of resettling it, in Europe and Africa. The reasons are diverse: strategic, military, social or political, often with a mixture of all these reasons. Is this movement a mere coincidence or does it reflect something more significant? What is its strategic significance? Can we draw ideas for the French SNU, for example, the initiation of a cybersecurity module for all the young people who will be passing through it?

Strategic genetic coding 

European countries with their business cards marked by strong national strategic experiences are struggling to find themselves in a European project that tends to converge with a globalization that is drying up. This is because the people of the old world have their own strategic code that states can not free themselves from and that the economic genetics of the EU can hardly take into account either. Elsewhere, however, American, Russian, Chinese or Turkish power affirmations are shaking up the rules of the game of power. France does not find it easily.

 

Lorgnette’s view: CHOD’s strategic vision

To read the full issue (6 pages), clic here.

JD & OK

La Vigie Nr 100 (12 SEP 2018) : A vicious strategic circle – The end of atlanticism – Lorgnette : conference of ambassadors – Fall readings

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La Vigie n° 99, a strategic letter by Jean Dufourcq et Olivier Kempf

A vicious strategic circle

Disqualifying the classic war has facilitated strategic terrorism; by declassifying nations and states, the governance of the world has been delegated to transversal forces. These two vicious circles by combining creates a general confusion against which we must fight, particularly in France by a large strategy articulated on the return to civil peace in the interior and a new ambition of regional neighborhood abroad. Such is the thesis of this issue number 100.

The end of atlanticism

We must note the end of Atlanticism, visible as well at the last summit of the G7 as at that of NATO. This project, born during the Second World War, closer to what some call “the West”, brings together both banks of the Atlantic on an economic, military and moral domination. Now, these three factors disappear simultaneously, and D. Trump is more of a revelator than a trigger for this movement that comes from far away. The decline seems irreversible, but many conservatives believe they can thwart it rather than build new strategic forms.

Lorgnette : conference of ambassadors

Fall readings

JDOK

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La Vigie n° 99 (1st AUG 2018) : Mali, in-between – Russia reinvests Egypt – Lorgnette : Deadlines planet

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La Vigie n° 99, a strategic letter by Jean Dufourcq et Olivier Kempf

Mali, in-between

Seen from France, Mali first poses a security question. Unfortunately, this perception prevents more complex geographical and political realities than the “fight against terrorism”, an awkward slogan that justifies our action. Because the Malian question (and beyond, regional, in the Sahara as in the Sahel which obey to different logics) is first that of the state organization. However, there are some optimistic factors that need to be strengthened so that military success “en premier” is pursued by a political and economic action “en second”.

Russia reinvests Egypt

Russia, which is prospecting for former Soviet positions, is gradually re-establishing itself along the great maritime artery that connects the North Sea with the Indian Ocean. In doing so, she finds in President Sissi’s Egypt a central partner sensitive to her leadership and her strategic, security and economic arguments. Her ability to mediate and her regional ability make her the player in the strategic reconstruction of the Levant, an interlocutor with whom France must now compose to find a place in the game.

Lorgnette : Deadlines planet

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