LV 150 : Turbulent return from hollydays | New strategic oscillation | Lornette: 5 questions to the reader

Letter from La Vigie, Nr 150, dated 16 Sept. 2020

Turbulent return from hollydays

The summer allowed the Frenchman to regain a certain normality. The world, for its part, has rather aggravated tensions: between a worrisome America, an ambiguous China, an Africa that is still going badly, a Mediterranean that is warming up, a painful European East, the return to school is turbulent and agitated. Let’s agree that our diplomacy has difficulty ordering these disorders and printing clear lines.

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New strategic oscillation

The current strategic disorder is stimulated by the double opposition between actors : the rooted and emancipated ones within the states on the one hand, and the imperial and tributary ones in international society on the other. The states are hard hit by this. But the risks of a global security crisis are framed by powerful new regulators. How can we get out of this situation?

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Lornette: 5 questions to the reader

As we entered the seventh year of publication of our bimonthly strategy letter, we wanted to know what our readers had to say about it. The following are five questions that will require two minutes of our readers’ attention and allow us to serve them well.

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LV 133 : Pespective on 2020 | On common goods of humanity | Lognette : Ottoman Libya

Letter from La Vigie of 8 January 2020

French perspective on 2020: strategic regulation in question

The strategic disruption of the planet continues. In 2020, it could become even more geo-economically unstable. For France, which needs to refocus its strategy and rethink its alliances, this is undoubtedly the time to reassess its external commitments, to exercise strategic restraint and to prioritise efforts on public security and cohesion in order to regain room for manoeuvre.

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The common goods of humanity

Beyond geopolitical or economic issues, it is at a time when multilateralism is experiencing its deepest crisis that it is most needed, particularly to guarantee the sustainable management of the common goods that the planet offers us. Whether we are talking about the environment, the sea and the oceans, exo-atmospheric and cybernetic space or the infinitely small human body, the preservation and exploitation of these goods, which are common to all humankind, require the practice of effective multilateralism so that they may benefit the human species in the long term. The different societies and human generations must also agree to listen to each other before engaging in dialogue.

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Lorgnette: Ottoman Libya

The situation in Libya is experiencing a new wave of uncertainty. While the Tripoli government was showing its limits (that of not governing anything, despite official UN recognition), while Misrata’s militias and their affiliates constituted the last square to oppose the Marshall Haftar, who had launched the final push to conquer Tripoli and reunify the country, helped in this by his Egyptian and Emirati godfathers, not to mention a number of mercenaries, President Erdogan announced that he was going to intervene.

Let us recall the long filiation between Misrata and Turkey to understand that Ankara basically wishes to defend its last point of support in the southern Mediterranean. Turkey remains a Mediterranean power and its neo-Ottomanism recalls its past domination. The fact remains that it is well established in Syria, that its supporters of Idlib are little by little driven out by the Russian-Syrian offensive and that there is a plethora of violent Islamists to be recycled. Ankara will officially send regular troops: let’s bet that the main one will be made up of jihadist séides.

Bad news for Libya and the Sahel!

JOCV

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La Vigie Nr 113 : The taste of peace | Geo XXI | Lorgnette : Tension in Cashmere

La Vigie nr 113 (13 MAR 19).

The taste of peace

Everyone talks about peace but many are satisfied with the disappearance of the hard war. It is not to see that this pacified world is leaving more and more free for multiple conflicts, a new “war” that goes hand in hand with liberal globalization. Peace is no longer an absolute value and surpasses all others, and therefore the taste for peace withers. Yet, in their demand for security, that is what the peoples demand.

Geo XXI

In a non-compliant and multiple world, the global geostrategy is undergoing a new evolution that must articulate at the beginning of the 21st century heterogeneity and interdependence, the strategic virtualization that digital transformation allows and the geopolitical regionalization that rebalances globalization. To be taken into account by France to take advantage of it.

Lorgnette : Tension in Cashmere

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JDOK

La Vigie Nr 107 (19 DEC 2018) | 2018 : Changing world | 18 month of French foreign policy | Lorgnette : Merry Christmas

Lettre de La Vigie (19 DEC 2018).


2018 :  Changing world

In 2018 we have entered a new strategic era, that of general deregulation. In an intense and disordered strategic flow, the conflictuality of the planet has evolved, the modalities of the exercise of power have been affirmed and diversified, laborious transitions and arbitrations have begun. But still no stable state on the horizon.

France : 18 month of foreign policy

President E. Macron had put two words on his foreign policy agenda: Europe and pragmatism. In the realm of pragmatism, there is a welcome discretion in the Middle East, the lack of purpose in the South, the unconvincing promotion of a major Asian strategy, a misguided American policy. For Europe, despite high ambitions based on old software, the results are very disappointing. The former probably explains the latter.

Lorgnette : Merry Christmas

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JDOK

La Vigie nr 98 bis (18 JUL 2018) : Mixed war | Alliance : vacancy or emptyness ? | from Lorgnette : foot and strategy

Lettre La Vigie n°98 bis – 18 July 2018

Mixed war

War is no longer effective! it remains, however, but the representation that we have deceives us, from Napoleon to the Hairy and the parade of July 14 to Operations in Africa. We seek to respond to an outdated form of war, knowing that it has taken many other forms (economic, cyber, monetary, media …): as many theaters of operation where take place the real strategies of power. To fail to understand this is necessarily to mislead the commitment of the combat forces that remains necessary, but on the condition of being subordinated to a complete strategy.

Alliance: vacancy or emptiness?

An EU full of false pretenses, a helpless Alliance, a possible Russo-American arrangement on the European back, the strategic failure is confirmed. France should seize it to promote a median position placing Europe to the Urals in a stable equilibrium between America and China, the two commercial competitors who decided to go to a long war. Lorgnette : Foot and strategy JDOK

La Vigie n° 96 – 6 June 2018 : The revenge of the depth – Italian divorce – Lorgnette : Master Hassner

 

Letter n° 96,  La Vigie, 6th  June 2018 (to read this issue in French, clic here)



 

The revenge of the depths

In crises, the bottom of things is shown. So today the fragile world governance is affected by the return of the collective identities and deep-seated forces of peoples who are taking over illegitimate states, confiscated democracies or systems that neglect their interests or their real weight. So it goes in Europe, the United States, Russia and China. What lessons for France?

 

Italian divorce

The Italian elections are not a populist threat, as some people like to reduce them. They are a democratic alternation that breaks with seven years of “technical” governments, inspired by the rules of the EU, and have not given satisfactory results, either economically or on the issue of migrants . By dint of claiming that there is no other policy, to say that politics is useless in the face of economic and technocratic reason, democracy is weakened. People have their say, whether we like it or not.

 

 

Lorgnette :  Le Maître Hassner

JDOK

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n° 91 – 28 mars 2018 : Seen from Sirius – Mayotte, island of Comoros – A hero

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Lettre n° 91, La Vigie du  28 mars 2018

Seen from Sirius

A Cold War climate is spreading in Europe and forces us to once again take the height to make an overview seen from Sirius. We can only see the feverishness of a Eurotlanic community blinded by a media, ecological and cultural overexposure that frightens our public opinion. Balances are changing and the old governance is getting out of date because of Russia and China, who are mainly challenging it, and are starting to develop a credible alternative for stability. We lose our sang-froid. It’s a great opportunity for France to start moving to the center of the game

Mayotte, island of Comoros

The island of Mayotte returns to the top of the news. The situation of this new department, poor and victim of illegal immigration, shows that the 2009 departmentalization did not produce the expected benefits. The case of Mayotte is not simply an internal matter of management of an overseas collectivity, it is also a problem of foreign policy and relations with the Comoros. Beyond this, it should encourage reflection on the French policy of DOM-COM, source of a gigantic maritime territory but also a mirror of all the difficulties of the current globalization.

RIP

Source

Lorgnette :   A hero (LTC Beltrame) Un héros

JDOK

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N°85 : Greetings for France 2018 – Cleavages that evolve

To read the French version of issue n° 85, click here

Greetings for France 2018What can France wish for its security in 2018? That the glimpse of reprieve spreads and that it can be sheltered from the destabilizing effects of the active scars of the empires of yesterday in Europe (Ukraine), the Levant (Arabo-Persian Gulf), in North Africa (Egypt, Libya, Sahel) but also technological and financial raids, all belligerents. Let it avoid the multiple strategic poachings that currently divide the planet and prohibit any form of global regulation. Let her remember by celebrating the bad peaces of 1918, to support a more pragmatic strategic way towards European integration and global governance.

Cleavages that evolveThe world faces a deep contradiction between its accelerated motion, for economic and technological reasons, and a deep desire for stability from the people across the world. This new division is altering and complicating the old political cleavage between right and left, which has long served to explain the course of the world. The clash between internal dynamics and external upheavals will explain many future events

Lorgnette : La Vigie is renewed

Photo crédit : Min Api Emke dessin

We wwish you a merry Christmas

JD and OK