LV 252 : Will the Netherlands stay ? | BRICS+ or the anti-West | Lorgnette : forgotten Sudan

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 30 OCT 2024

Will the Netherlands stay?

As the final stage in our tour of France’s land borders, let’s take a look at the Netherlands, which France borders in the West Indies on the island of Saint Martin. Although this old European country is naturally turned towards the overseas territories – today the United Kingdom and the United States – it is nonetheless extremely pragmatic, which opens up interesting possibilities for cooperation for France, just as the Netherlands is multiplying international cooperation in the military field.

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BRICS+ or the anti-West

The BRICS+ meeting in Kazan does not simply reveal a more or less isolated Russia. This meeting of the recalcitrant bears witness to a certain disenchantment with the West, not necessarily hostility. Finally, the building blocks of a de-dollarisation movement have been put in place.

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Lorgnette: Forgotten Sudan

Since April 2023, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary militia led by General Hemetti, have been fighting a civil war against General Abdel al-Buhran’s Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The RSF are backed by the United Arab Emirates, and Chad, while the SAF are now supported by Russia (which had once backed the RSF via Wagner), Egypt and Turkey, as well as Iran and Qatar.

While the RSF, heirs to the Janjaweed militias, had taken control of a large part of the country (west and south), in recent weeks the RSF (which holds the east, north and Port Sudan) has had some success, even though the capital Khartoum remains in rebel hands.

The human toll is catastrophic: 10 million people displaced and 150,000 civilians killed. In addition to the war (and numerous war crimes), famine and floods (a dam has burst, for example) are compounding the calamities and suffering.

These tragedies are not attracting the interest of international public opinion, which is currently focused on two subjects: the American elections and the war in the Middle East. Even Ukraine has lost its appeal. So it’s hardly surprising that Sudan has been forgotten.

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LV 251 : What if Trump wins ? | Where has Turkey gone ? | Lorgnette : Identifying yourself

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 16 OCT 2024

What if Trump wins ?

The presidential campaign is perfectly undecided because the arrival of K. Harris has rebalanced the poll. With only three weeks to go before the election, no one can seriously predict who will win. We must also look at the parliamentary elections, which will take place on the same day and will give – or not – some room for manoeuvre to the winner. Similarly, what reaction will the losing camp have? So many uncertainties for a crucial election.

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Whzere has Turkey gone ?

Turkey, which may have emerged as one of the major players in the war in Ukraine in 2022, has gradually seen its international position weaken. Several factors may explain this relative diplomatic weakness in 2024: an overly opportunistic multi-alignment on Ukrainian affairs, a maximalist position on the Middle East that provoked Washington’s mistrust and, above all, a nagging economic crisis that forced Ankara to adopt austerity measures.

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Lorgnette: Identifying yourself

Hard wars have been returning for three years now. In 2023, there were nine: Burma, Gaza, Nigeria, DRC, Sahel, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine and Yemen. In 2024, Ethiopia is likely to join this fateful procession once again. While French and European public opinion may be interested in Ukraine or the Middle East, it is completely unaware of Sudan or Burma. Why this difference?

Because in the first cases there is a phenomenon of identification, not in the others. In some ways, Ukrainians or Israelis (or Palestinians) are seen as others of ourselves, as well as being geographically close. War, often seen as the violent matrix of national identities, puts our own identity under strain. It is because we are worried internally that we project ourselves onto what is happening externally.

The victim mechanism adds to this phenomenon. We are always on the side of the victim. But just as the victim is easy to identify in the case of Ukraine, so there is competition for victims in the Middle East, between the victims of 7 October and the victims of Tsahal. The subject is all the more thorny because France has the largest Jewish population and the largest Arab-Muslim population in Europe.

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LV 250 (free): Enchanted interlude and strategic disenchantment | Should we win the war or prevent it? | Lorgnette: Iran’s dilemma

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Lettre de La Vigie, dated 2 October 2024

Enchanted interlude and strategic disenchantment

During the Olympic and Paralympic Games, France showed the world that it knew how to organise major international and popular events in a sumptuous setting, without any security hiccups. However, the term ‘enchanted interlude’ is surprising: why should day-to-day security be an interlude rather than a permanent feature? How can we ensure safety for all?

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Should we win the war or prevent it?

The war is back: everyone can see it, and the Vigie is constantly analysing it. In recent months, while high-intensity words have taken centre stage, the issue of deterrence has also come back with a vengeance. But is current nuclear regulation enough?

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Lorgnette: Iran’s dilemma

Iran has been accumulating setbacks for some time. Until now, it had managed to operate in the Near and Middle East thanks to a network of allies that enabled it to balance the Saudi opposition on the one hand and the Israeli challenge on the other. The Shiite networks in Iraq, the Syrian support point, the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthis were all effective relays for an influential policy in the region. Despite everything, things were changing. The Abraham Accords had launched an Israeli-Arab reconciliation (LV 217). Teheran responded by reconciling with Riyadh (LV 226).

The attack on 7 October turned the situation upside down by forcing Israel to react and re-establish its conventional deterrent, both in Gaza and against Hezbollah (note). Iran, which was challenged this summer (assassination of the head of Hamas in Teheran), must react but not too forcefully, as it is prey to a domestic fragility that must not be overlooked. On the other hand, it cannot allow the blows dealt by Israel (assassination in Teheran, attack by Hezbollah) to go unanswered. This is the reason for today’s missile strike.

The escalation continues and no one knows where it will lead. The fact remains that Iran is on its own in the region.

To read the appendix to this issue, LV 250 bis, Ten years of La Vigie, click here

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LB 250 bis (free) 10 years of La Vigie

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With this issue 250, which marks the start of its eleventh year of publication, La Vigie reaches the magic number of 500 published posts. In their own way, they describe the stages and hazards of the decade of strategic transition that France has just undergone in Europe and Europe in the world.

So this is an opportunity to take stock of the decade. This annex to the regular issue will therefore take a different form: Each contributor will give his or her assessment, even those who have joined along the way: for once, the signatures will be individualised instead of the collective signature we are used to.

How short a decade is!

Launched in autumn 2014, La Vigie is primarily a fortnightly online publication. It certainly conducts other activities (studies, seminars, training, etc.) which are aimed at its clients and therefore remain discreet. But the point of reference remains the newsletter, whose format is now well established: two articles barely three pages long and a free-form spyglass, more open to the mood of the moment, when the articles want to get to the heart of the matter. So we rarely react to immediate news. As a matter of policy, we prefer to wait for the dust to settle, for events to become clear and finally known, so that we can concentrate on the essence of our work: strategic synthesis. Not analysis, but synthesis.

Continue reading “LB 250 bis (free) 10 years of La Vigie” →

LV 249 : Global turmoil | Dividing up the world | Lorgnette : Trouble at the commission

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 18 September 2024

 

Global turmoil

After an overview of the summer’s turbulent international scene (despite the Olympic truce), the conclusion is clear: the world is facing global turmoil, which reflects both the disarray of Westerners who see their domination crumbling and the blurred situation from which no clear perspective has yet emerged.

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Dividing up the world

The world was first divided in 1494 with the Treaty of Tordesillas. Since then, globalization has taken place one after the other, mainly by sea, as the planet has been slowly reorganized. The Portuguese example is still alive today: let’s emulate the ten qualities that enabled it to develop a clear strategic intent.

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Lorgnette : Trouble at the commission

The recent European elections provided an opportunity to renew the Commission. Bargaining was going well. But whereas they are usually discreet, this time they are making a lot of noise. Already in the first half of the year, many people were speaking out against the reappointment of Ursula von Der Leyen. They criticized her for often interfering in matters that were none of her business, and for living in an ivory tower without giving anything away or even listening to dissenting voices. Unfortunately, coming from the EPP, the conservative political group that had maintained its positions in the European Parliament, and being German with a weakened France, she was chosen. The final negotiation remained: the Commissioners.

She refused to reappoint Thierry Breton. Admittedly, the Frenchman was able to provoke, but relations were at their worst: an eternal dispute between the German and French characters. The Élysée immediately appointed Stéphane Séjourné, the very unconvincing Minister of Foreign Affairs, apparently in exchange for a higher post.

The incident may seem insignificant, but it is indicative of France’s loss of influence: as well as being an inconvenient character, it is also indicative of a real weakening. This is all the more worrying at a time when Europe seems disarmed in the face of the world.

JOVPN

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LV 248: Olympic truce | Fragile Suriname | Lorgnette: Vice and Afghanistan

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Letter from La Vigie, 4 Sept. 2024

 

Olympic truce

The Paris Olympics were a welcome truce, providing the positive emotions that are so rare these days. For all that, politics did not disappear, but they did take a back seat.

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Fragile Suriname

Suriname is France’s last overseas border country. It’s a peaceful country, but the rule of law is relatively weak, yet it’s key to improving security in French Guyana. It would be very useful to redirect our development aid towards this country in order to strengthen police and military cooperation.

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Lorgnette: Vice and Afghanistan

Who cares about Afghanistan any more? Not a soul. Do a search on the Internet and you won’t find any recent articles, apart from those on the recent decision by the Taliban, in the name of ‘preventing vice and promoting virtue’, to impose new restrictions on women: they will have to cover their faces and will no longer be able to make their voices heard in public. This obsession with silencing women reflects a general problem with Islam. International condemnations have had no effect.

The fact remains that three years after the departure of the Americans, the country is a black hole. Some countries maintain diplomatic relations with the country (China, Russia) while many look the other way. For many, the Taliban regime guarantees a certain stability. Similarly, the fight against opium is producing results (95% reduction in production). But the Emirate has not obtained the international recognition it had hoped for in the first year. But it has not managed to fight terrorist groups and the Islamic State in Khorassan continues to strike (attack in Moscow in March). The economic situation is catastrophic. Unfortunately, no pressure seems to be working. It’s a real vicious circle.

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LV 247: The risks of nuclear counter-shouldering | European disarray | Summer readings

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Letter from La Vigie dated 24th July 2024

The risks of nuclear counter-shouldering

The concept of a shoulder-to-shoulder link between conventional forces and nuclear deterrence has been part of the French strategic debate since 2020. However, in order to be relevant, a strict separation between nuclear and conventional forces must be maintained on both sides. The development by the main competitors of low-power nuclear weapons that can be carried by cruise missiles or anti-ship missiles is leading to a progressive blurring of the distinction between these categories, rendering the shoulder shield as hitherto conceived ineffective.

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European disarray

The recent elections to the European Parliament and in the United Kingdom have not led to a profound reconsideration of the dynamics, despite the growing political fragmentation. Basically, this democratic exercise conceals neither Europe’s powerlessness nor the disarray that is emerging. The European Union is being ‘continued’ despiteof anything better, unable to adapt to the geopolitical whirlwind.

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Summer reading

A number of reading notes for this summer. See Main article here.

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LV 246 : The dilaborescence of organisations | Scotland, reunited or disunited? | Lorgnette : 75 years

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 10th July 2024

The dilaborescence of organisations

Talking about organisation can be ambiguous, because it suggests that the organisation is itself organised. Recent French examples (Atos, dissolution) show that this is not always the case. Organisations, like civilisations, are mortal (and isn’t a civilisation also a form of organisation?). Some, however, adopt an astonishing behaviour, that of dilaborescence, which is decomposition in small steps.

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Scotland, reunited or disunited?

The British elections on 4 July saw a radical change in Scottish representation, with the pro-independence party giving way to Labour. This is an opportunity to take a closer look at the region and the lessons to be learned from this vote.

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Lorgnette: 75 years

The Atlantic Alliance summit which opens this Wednesday in Washington will, as usual, be presented as a success. Such is the law of the genre, for a NATO summit is a rite whose liturgy serves first and foremost to celebrate an act of faith: that of Article 5 and therefore of collective defence, of “one for all and all for one”, of transatlantic solidarity.

As usual, the declaration will be read carefully by the experts, who will be examining two issues: firstly, the Ukrainian question: Kiev must join the Alliance, of course, but by a bridge (the long view of the Americans or the Germans) or a road (the short view of many Europeans, including France)? Given the political weight of each, it will be a “bridge”.

Secondly, the American question. The Alliance only makes sense if Washington plays ball. Celebrating the 75th anniversary of the treaty in Washington is also part of a staged event, this time a domestic political one: J. Biden is in difficulty in his election campaign and all the allies fear the return of D. Trump, who would block the Alliance even more than he did. In the birthday photos, the smiles will be tense.

JOVPN

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LV 245: Hungary: a European laboratory | Brazil, the future belongs to it | Lorgnette: The Channel that unites

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 26 June 2024

 

Hungary: a European laboratory

Hungary was for a long time disputed by the Austrians and the Ottomans. Barely independent, the Treaty of Trianon cut off two-thirds of its territory. Thirty years later, it came under Soviet control. These historical vicissitudes largely explain V. Orbán’s domestic success. Access to freedom since 1989, through the EU and NATO, must not contradict the need to regain sovereignty. This is the main reason for the Hungarian leader’s illiberalism.

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Brazil, the future belongs to it

The tour of France’s neighbours on land continues overseas, this time looking at the country with which we share the longest border: Brazil. This gigantic country with so many resources remains internally fractured, which is hampering its development. Its military resources are not yet equal to its global standing, but Brazil’s non-Western approach to international relations probably represents the future.

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Lorgnette: The Channel that unites

France and the United Kingdom share similar destinies. Both countries are due to elect their National Assemblies in a few days’ time (July 5 in London, July 7 in Paris) following sudden and surprising dissolutions. In both cases, the incumbent majority is expected to give way to the opposition. Labour is favoured in the United Kingdom, while uncertainty remains in the Republic, where the choice is between a more or less clear majority and an ungovernable chamber.

In the case of the United Kingdom, the changeover comes at the end of a fairly long sequence: that of a Conservative government under Mr Cameron with fairly tough reforms, culminating in an unexpected Brexit (2016), the results of which, eight years on, are pitiful. The country has stagnated, while the provinces have sunk into poverty and inequality.

In the case of France, there has been one crisis after another since 2015: jihadist attacks, yellow jackets, Covid, pension reforms, revolt in the suburbs, riots in New Caledonia. Despite economic indicators that aren’t so bad, the feeling of a fractured and disintegrating society explains the recent vote of rejection.

Here, democratic breathing space is needed to catch our breath. The two sides of the Channel are thus coming together.

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LV 244 (free): Extended Mediterranean: Italy’s ambitions beyond Europe | Grand strategy in disarray | Lorgnette: Indian elections

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 12th June 2024

 

Extended Mediterranean: Italy’s ambitions beyond Europe (LV 244) (free)

Since 2022, Italy has decided to adopt a new strategic positioning in an area stretching from the Gulf of Guinea to the north-western Indian Ocean, which it calls the “extended Mediterranean”. This cross-cutting vision, which includes diplomatic and economic as well as military and security aspects, underlines Rome’s ambitions for a southern flank of NATO and the EU that has too often been neglected. In support of this strategy, Italy is also developing a strong naval base, centred on a major upgrade of capabilities and spectacular growth in volumes, making it an essential partner for France, particularly in the Indo-Pacific.

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Grand strategy in disarray (LV 244) (free)

Grand strategy remains a demanding discipline, combining diagnosis and decision, thought and action. Since its inception, La Vigie has tirelessly explored this method. We note its structural weakening, which reflects the deterioration of political debate. Yet other countries have succeeded in implementing major strategies. If we leave it to the course of events, we will encounter tragedy. Then perhaps grand strategy will be reborn.

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Lorgnette : Indian elections

The elections that have just taken place in India are full of lessons. Narendra Modi did not achieve the triumph he had hoped for, even though his coalition managed to secure a third term in office. Domestic factors played their part: doubts about the Prime Minister’s ultra-Hindu political project, the tarnished aura of a man from the bottom, economic successes (7% growth) that do not redistribute enough (unemployment remains high), and persistent regional disparities.

However, this will give him a free hand internationally to continue his balancing act (LV 240). It will continue to combine its grand strategy: cooperation with the West, notably within the framework of the Quad (United States, Australia, Japan), while benefiting from the indulgence of the Europeans; cooperation with the BRICS and notably Russia, whose oil feeds its economy; pursuit of economic development in support of a globalisation that brings prosperity; attachment to its neighbours in the Indian Ocean; a marked effort towards Africa; maintenance of a degree of tension with China and Pakistan.

What is most remarkable is the decorrelation between domestic political life and foreign policy.

JOVPN

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LV 243: Paris-Warsaw: Prelude or waltz? | A funeral dirge for international law | Lorgnette: the meaning of war

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 29 May 2024

Paris-Warsaw: Prelude or waltz?

Poland has traditionally had difficulties with its two neighbours, Russia and Germany. The war in Ukraine is reshuffling the cards in its strategic equation and prompting it to take an interest in the new French discourse: is this the prelude to a lasting understanding or just a waltz?

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A funeral dirge for international law

The decision by Karim Khan, the ICC prosecutor, to ask for arrest warrants to be issued for Netanyahu and his defence minister has provoked strong reactions in the United States. Based on morality rather than law, they threaten one of the foundations of the international order, justifying in hindsight all the criticism of a law that would only target countries that are not aligned with the United States. If the threats against the ICC materialise, it could be the death knell of international law.

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Lorgnette: the meaning of war

Soldiers are starting to write: what was still the exception twenty years ago is now becoming commonplace. But let’s take a look at the themes covered in these works: history, ethics or personal accounts, in most cases. In the latter case, the war is described as an experience. The authors show its violence, its injustice and the trauma it caused. France, for example, has been at war for thirty years without realising it, because its soldiers have been under fire (here).

Of course, the reader is left in awe of the examples given, the underlying heroism, and the moral and psychological dimension of war. But they are also bothered by a major omission, that of the political dimension of war. War is not only the work of those who wage it. War has a cause before it has a meaning. It is the work of a society before it is the work of the men who lead it. War is not war because it is an experience, it is war because it is first and foremost a political object. France was not at war because it did not think of itself as being at war. This is, moreover, the criticism we have regularly levelled at recent external operations in which the enemy was not identified.

This confusion remains embarrassing.

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LV 242 : Decentralised Spain | Tenacious internal fragility | Lorgnette: The Ukrainian turn

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Letter frm La Vigie, dated 15th May 2024

Decentralised Spain

A new stage in the rediscovery of France’s neighbours on land: Spain. It is a textbook example of a state where the tension between central government and the regions is critical. This political focus explains its strategic ambition, which bears no comparison with the empire it once was.

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Tenacious internal fragility

After leading to conflicts far away, the attacks of the 2010s brought attention back to the domestic front. But the return of war, particularly in Ukraine, is prompting people to look outside again. Yet the situation at home seems more fragile than ever, as many signs show. We must not forget the home front.

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Lorgnette: The Ukrainian turn

After the failure of the Ukrainian offensive in the summer of 2023, the fighting continued throughout the autumn and winter, with slow Russian pressure which, thanks to a very favourable fire ratio, gradually nibbled away at a few positions and crushed the Ukrainian forces. The symbol was the capture of Avdivka in February 2024 (LV 236), a large suburb of Donetsk where the Ukrainians had been fortifying themselves since 2014.

But after a pause in March, the Russians resumed their push more vigorously from April onwards, whether in Chasiv Yar (a suburb of Bakhmut) or to the west of Avdivka, managing to make clearer progress at a rate of 25km² per week. Since last Friday, in addition to recurring fighting along the entire front, they have launched a major push north of Kharkiv, pushing aside the Ukrainian forces and taking several dozen square kilometres. Ukraine is short of weapons, ammunition and manpower. Western aid remains at a low level and the military situation seems very compromised.

It seems that we are witnessing a military turning point on the ground, even though Moscow has not yet launched all its forces. A turning point is taking place and the words ‘collapse’ are being uttered more and more. Are we close to the end?

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