La Vigie – English – The bimonthly geostrategic letter

LV 253: The turning point in the world | The strategist and his house | Lorgnette: German dominoes

Posted on 14 November 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, 13 NOV 2024

The turning point in the world

The election of Donald Trump marks the end of the pivotal period that began on 24 February 2022 with the launch of the war in Ukraine. It puts an end to the post-Cold War era and ushers in a period when the West is no more. While the first effects will be felt in Eastern Europe and perhaps the Middle East, and the Asian issue will be central, Europe will have to rise above its existential fears to confront the new world disorder.

To read the article online, click here

The strategist and his house

While all eyes are on the outside world, the strategist must not forget what is happening at home. The importance of a domestic strategy is emphasised here, involving fair laws, trained and controlled forces of law and order, a good economy and, above all, an effort to train the national and local elites in domestic strategy.

To read the article online, click here

Lorgnette: German dominoes

Even if the President of the United States remains the President of his own country and not of ours, which should make it possible to dispassionately inform ourselves about the electoral campaign on the other side of the Atlantic, the fact remains that the last election is likely to have a major domino effect.

The first domino is Germany.

German society was quite stunned by Trump’s victory, with some journalists still mistaking their desires for reality. However, the unimaginable did take shape, with a twofold observation: Germany was going to have to take matters into its own hands and provide a greater proportion of its own defence, without any automatic American guarantee, F-35 docking notwithstanding; secondly, the first observation had already been made when Trump first won the election, i.e. eight years ago. What has happened in those eight years? Not much, really, apart from much more difficult conditions (insecurity in Eastern Europe, the end of cheap energy). And as no one considers that the current Chancellor, O. Scholz, has the shoulders to firmly lead the country, the government is in the process of falling.

What will the next dominoes be?

JOVPN

Subscribers: click directly on the links to read online or download the pdf issue (here), always with your login/password. New readers: read the article by issue, by clicking on each article (€2.5), or subscribe (discovery subscription €17, annual subscription €70, orga. subscription €300 excl. tax): here, the different options.

Photo credit : IoSonoUnaFotoCamera on Visualhunt.com

LV 252 : Will the Netherlands stay ? | BRICS+ or the anti-West | Lorgnette : forgotten Sudan

Posted on 30 October 202430 October 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 30 OCT 2024

Will the Netherlands stay?

As the final stage in our tour of France’s land borders, let’s take a look at the Netherlands, which France borders in the West Indies on the island of Saint Martin. Although this old European country is naturally turned towards the overseas territories – today the United Kingdom and the United States – it is nonetheless extremely pragmatic, which opens up interesting possibilities for cooperation for France, just as the Netherlands is multiplying international cooperation in the military field.

To read the article, click here

BRICS+ or the anti-West

The BRICS+ meeting in Kazan does not simply reveal a more or less isolated Russia. This meeting of the recalcitrant bears witness to a certain disenchantment with the West, not necessarily hostility. Finally, the building blocks of a de-dollarisation movement have been put in place.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: Forgotten Sudan

Since April 2023, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary militia led by General Hemetti, have been fighting a civil war against General Abdel al-Buhran’s Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The RSF are backed by the United Arab Emirates, and Chad, while the SAF are now supported by Russia (which had once backed the RSF via Wagner), Egypt and Turkey, as well as Iran and Qatar.

While the RSF, heirs to the Janjaweed militias, had taken control of a large part of the country (west and south), in recent weeks the RSF (which holds the east, north and Port Sudan) has had some success, even though the capital Khartoum remains in rebel hands.

The human toll is catastrophic: 10 million people displaced and 150,000 civilians killed. In addition to the war (and numerous war crimes), famine and floods (a dam has burst, for example) are compounding the calamities and suffering.

These tragedies are not attracting the interest of international public opinion, which is currently focused on two subjects: the American elections and the war in the Middle East. Even Ukraine has lost its appeal. So it’s hardly surprising that Sudan has been forgotten.

JOVPN

Photo credit : https://photo-summit.brics-russia2024.ru/en/story/list_351209441/

LV 251 : What if Trump wins ? | Where has Turkey gone ? | Lorgnette : Identifying yourself

Posted on 16 October 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 16 OCT 2024

What if Trump wins ?

The presidential campaign is perfectly undecided because the arrival of K. Harris has rebalanced the poll. With only three weeks to go before the election, no one can seriously predict who will win. We must also look at the parliamentary elections, which will take place on the same day and will give – or not – some room for manoeuvre to the winner. Similarly, what reaction will the losing camp have? So many uncertainties for a crucial election.

To read the article, click here

Whzere has Turkey gone ?

Turkey, which may have emerged as one of the major players in the war in Ukraine in 2022, has gradually seen its international position weaken. Several factors may explain this relative diplomatic weakness in 2024: an overly opportunistic multi-alignment on Ukrainian affairs, a maximalist position on the Middle East that provoked Washington’s mistrust and, above all, a nagging economic crisis that forced Ankara to adopt austerity measures.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: Identifying yourself

Hard wars have been returning for three years now. In 2023, there were nine: Burma, Gaza, Nigeria, DRC, Sahel, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine and Yemen. In 2024, Ethiopia is likely to join this fateful procession once again. While French and European public opinion may be interested in Ukraine or the Middle East, it is completely unaware of Sudan or Burma. Why this difference?

Because in the first cases there is a phenomenon of identification, not in the others. In some ways, Ukrainians or Israelis (or Palestinians) are seen as others of ourselves, as well as being geographically close. War, often seen as the violent matrix of national identities, puts our own identity under strain. It is because we are worried internally that we project ourselves onto what is happening externally.

The victim mechanism adds to this phenomenon. We are always on the side of the victim. But just as the victim is easy to identify in the case of Ukraine, so there is competition for victims in the Middle East, between the victims of 7 October and the victims of Tsahal. The subject is all the more thorny because France has the largest Jewish population and the largest Arab-Muslim population in Europe.

JOVPN

Photo credit : cornstalker on VisualHunt.com

LV 250 (free): Enchanted interlude and strategic disenchantment | Should we win the war or prevent it? | Lorgnette: Iran’s dilemma

Posted on 1 October 20241 October 2024 by A M

Lettre de La Vigie, dated 2 October 2024

Enchanted interlude and strategic disenchantment

During the Olympic and Paralympic Games, France showed the world that it knew how to organise major international and popular events in a sumptuous setting, without any security hiccups. However, the term ‘enchanted interlude’ is surprising: why should day-to-day security be an interlude rather than a permanent feature? How can we ensure safety for all?

To read the article, click here

Should we win the war or prevent it?

The war is back: everyone can see it, and the Vigie is constantly analysing it. In recent months, while high-intensity words have taken centre stage, the issue of deterrence has also come back with a vengeance. But is current nuclear regulation enough?

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: Iran’s dilemma

Iran has been accumulating setbacks for some time. Until now, it had managed to operate in the Near and Middle East thanks to a network of allies that enabled it to balance the Saudi opposition on the one hand and the Israeli challenge on the other. The Shiite networks in Iraq, the Syrian support point, the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthis were all effective relays for an influential policy in the region. Despite everything, things were changing. The Abraham Accords had launched an Israeli-Arab reconciliation (LV 217). Teheran responded by reconciling with Riyadh (LV 226).

The attack on 7 October turned the situation upside down by forcing Israel to react and re-establish its conventional deterrent, both in Gaza and against Hezbollah (note). Iran, which was challenged this summer (assassination of the head of Hamas in Teheran), must react but not too forcefully, as it is prey to a domestic fragility that must not be overlooked. On the other hand, it cannot allow the blows dealt by Israel (assassination in Teheran, attack by Hezbollah) to go unanswered. This is the reason for today’s missile strike.

The escalation continues and no one knows where it will lead. The fact remains that Iran is on its own in the region.

To read the appendix to this issue, LV 250 bis, Ten years of La Vigie, click here

JOVPN

Photo credit : Clemens Vasters on Visualhunt

LB 250 bis (free) 10 years of La Vigie

Posted on 1 October 20241 October 2024 by A M

With this issue 250, which marks the start of its eleventh year of publication, La Vigie reaches the magic number of 500 published posts. In their own way, they describe the stages and hazards of the decade of strategic transition that France has just undergone in Europe and Europe in the world.

So this is an opportunity to take stock of the decade. This annex to the regular issue will therefore take a different form: Each contributor will give his or her assessment, even those who have joined along the way: for once, the signatures will be individualised instead of the collective signature we are used to.

How short a decade is!

Launched in autumn 2014, La Vigie is primarily a fortnightly online publication. It certainly conducts other activities (studies, seminars, training, etc.) which are aimed at its clients and therefore remain discreet. But the point of reference remains the newsletter, whose format is now well established: two articles barely three pages long and a free-form spyglass, more open to the mood of the moment, when the articles want to get to the heart of the matter. So we rarely react to immediate news. As a matter of policy, we prefer to wait for the dust to settle, for events to become clear and finally known, so that we can concentrate on the essence of our work: strategic synthesis. Not analysis, but synthesis.

Continue reading “LB 250 bis (free) 10 years of La Vigie” →

LV 249 : Global turmoil | Dividing up the world | Lorgnette : Trouble at the commission

Posted on 18 September 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 18 September 2024

Global turmoil

After an overview of the summer’s turbulent international scene (despite the Olympic truce), the conclusion is clear: the world is facing global turmoil, which reflects both the disarray of Westerners who see their domination crumbling and the blurred situation from which no clear perspective has yet emerged.

To read the article, click here

Dividing up the world

The world was first divided in 1494 with the Treaty of Tordesillas. Since then, globalization has taken place one after the other, mainly by sea, as the planet has been slowly reorganized. The Portuguese example is still alive today: let’s emulate the ten qualities that enabled it to develop a clear strategic intent.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette : Trouble at the commission

The recent European elections provided an opportunity to renew the Commission. Bargaining was going well. But whereas they are usually discreet, this time they are making a lot of noise. Already in the first half of the year, many people were speaking out against the reappointment of Ursula von Der Leyen. They criticized her for often interfering in matters that were none of her business, and for living in an ivory tower without giving anything away or even listening to dissenting voices. Unfortunately, coming from the EPP, the conservative political group that had maintained its positions in the European Parliament, and being German with a weakened France, she was chosen. The final negotiation remained: the Commissioners.

She refused to reappoint Thierry Breton. Admittedly, the Frenchman was able to provoke, but relations were at their worst: an eternal dispute between the German and French characters. The Élysée immediately appointed Stéphane Séjourné, the very unconvincing Minister of Foreign Affairs, apparently in exchange for a higher post.

The incident may seem insignificant, but it is indicative of France’s loss of influence: as well as being an inconvenient character, it is also indicative of a real weakening. This is all the more worrying at a time when Europe seems disarmed in the face of the world.

JOVPN

Photo credit: Just call me Jac on Visualhunt

LV 248: Olympic truce | Fragile Suriname | Lorgnette: Vice and Afghanistan

Posted on 4 September 20244 September 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, 4 Sept. 2024

Olympic truce

The Paris Olympics were a welcome truce, providing the positive emotions that are so rare these days. For all that, politics did not disappear, but they did take a back seat.

To read the article, click here

Fragile Suriname

Suriname is France’s last overseas border country. It’s a peaceful country, but the rule of law is relatively weak, yet it’s key to improving security in French Guyana. It would be very useful to redirect our development aid towards this country in order to strengthen police and military cooperation.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: Vice and Afghanistan

Who cares about Afghanistan any more? Not a soul. Do a search on the Internet and you won’t find any recent articles, apart from those on the recent decision by the Taliban, in the name of ‘preventing vice and promoting virtue’, to impose new restrictions on women: they will have to cover their faces and will no longer be able to make their voices heard in public. This obsession with silencing women reflects a general problem with Islam. International condemnations have had no effect.

The fact remains that three years after the departure of the Americans, the country is a black hole. Some countries maintain diplomatic relations with the country (China, Russia) while many look the other way. For many, the Taliban regime guarantees a certain stability. Similarly, the fight against opium is producing results (95% reduction in production). But the Emirate has not obtained the international recognition it had hoped for in the first year. But it has not managed to fight terrorist groups and the Islamic State in Khorassan continues to strike (attack in Moscow in March). The economic situation is catastrophic. Unfortunately, no pressure seems to be working. It’s a real vicious circle.

JOVPN

Photo credit: nix|photo on Visualhunt.com

LV 247: The risks of nuclear counter-shouldering | European disarray | Summer readings

Posted on 24 July 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie dated 24th July 2024

The risks of nuclear counter-shouldering

The concept of a shoulder-to-shoulder link between conventional forces and nuclear deterrence has been part of the French strategic debate since 2020. However, in order to be relevant, a strict separation between nuclear and conventional forces must be maintained on both sides. The development by the main competitors of low-power nuclear weapons that can be carried by cruise missiles or anti-ship missiles is leading to a progressive blurring of the distinction between these categories, rendering the shoulder shield as hitherto conceived ineffective.

To read the article, click here

European disarray

The recent elections to the European Parliament and in the United Kingdom have not led to a profound reconsideration of the dynamics, despite the growing political fragmentation. Basically, this democratic exercise conceals neither Europe’s powerlessness nor the disarray that is emerging. The European Union is being ‘continued’ despiteof anything better, unable to adapt to the geopolitical whirlwind.

To read the article, click here

Summer reading

A number of reading notes for this summer. See Main article here.

JOVPN

Photo credit: https://lefrenchdebat.fr/lunion-europeenne-et-ses-institutions/

LV 246 : The dilaborescence of organisations | Scotland, reunited or disunited? | Lorgnette : 75 years

Posted on 10 July 202410 July 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 10th July 2024

The dilaborescence of organisations

Talking about organisation can be ambiguous, because it suggests that the organisation is itself organised. Recent French examples (Atos, dissolution) show that this is not always the case. Organisations, like civilisations, are mortal (and isn’t a civilisation also a form of organisation?). Some, however, adopt an astonishing behaviour, that of dilaborescence, which is decomposition in small steps.

To read the article, click here

Scotland, reunited or disunited?

The British elections on 4 July saw a radical change in Scottish representation, with the pro-independence party giving way to Labour. This is an opportunity to take a closer look at the region and the lessons to be learned from this vote.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: 75 years

The Atlantic Alliance summit which opens this Wednesday in Washington will, as usual, be presented as a success. Such is the law of the genre, for a NATO summit is a rite whose liturgy serves first and foremost to celebrate an act of faith: that of Article 5 and therefore of collective defence, of “one for all and all for one”, of transatlantic solidarity.

As usual, the declaration will be read carefully by the experts, who will be examining two issues: firstly, the Ukrainian question: Kiev must join the Alliance, of course, but by a bridge (the long view of the Americans or the Germans) or a road (the short view of many Europeans, including France)? Given the political weight of each, it will be a “bridge”.

Secondly, the American question. The Alliance only makes sense if Washington plays ball. Celebrating the 75th anniversary of the treaty in Washington is also part of a staged event, this time a domestic political one: J. Biden is in difficulty in his election campaign and all the allies fear the return of D. Trump, who would block the Alliance even more than he did. In the birthday photos, the smiles will be tense.

JOVPN

Photo credit: Jeff-Photo on VisualHunt.com

LV 245: Hungary: a European laboratory | Brazil, the future belongs to it | Lorgnette: The Channel that unites

Posted on 25 June 202425 June 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 26 June 2024

Hungary: a European laboratory

Hungary was for a long time disputed by the Austrians and the Ottomans. Barely independent, the Treaty of Trianon cut off two-thirds of its territory. Thirty years later, it came under Soviet control. These historical vicissitudes largely explain V. Orbán’s domestic success. Access to freedom since 1989, through the EU and NATO, must not contradict the need to regain sovereignty. This is the main reason for the Hungarian leader’s illiberalism.

To read the article, click here

Brazil, the future belongs to it

The tour of France’s neighbours on land continues overseas, this time looking at the country with which we share the longest border: Brazil. This gigantic country with so many resources remains internally fractured, which is hampering its development. Its military resources are not yet equal to its global standing, but Brazil’s non-Western approach to international relations probably represents the future.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: The Channel that unites

France and the United Kingdom share similar destinies. Both countries are due to elect their National Assemblies in a few days’ time (July 5 in London, July 7 in Paris) following sudden and surprising dissolutions. In both cases, the incumbent majority is expected to give way to the opposition. Labour is favoured in the United Kingdom, while uncertainty remains in the Republic, where the choice is between a more or less clear majority and an ungovernable chamber.

In the case of the United Kingdom, the changeover comes at the end of a fairly long sequence: that of a Conservative government under Mr Cameron with fairly tough reforms, culminating in an unexpected Brexit (2016), the results of which, eight years on, are pitiful. The country has stagnated, while the provinces have sunk into poverty and inequality.

In the case of France, there has been one crisis after another since 2015: jihadist attacks, yellow jackets, Covid, pension reforms, revolt in the suburbs, riots in New Caledonia. Despite economic indicators that aren’t so bad, the feeling of a fractured and disintegrating society explains the recent vote of rejection.

Here, democratic breathing space is needed to catch our breath. The two sides of the Channel are thus coming together.

JOVPN

Photo credit: connect@epp.eu on Visualhunt.com

LV 244 (free): Extended Mediterranean: Italy’s ambitions beyond Europe | Grand strategy in disarray | Lorgnette: Indian elections

Posted on 12 June 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 12th June 2024

Extended Mediterranean: Italy’s ambitions beyond Europe (LV 244) (free)

Since 2022, Italy has decided to adopt a new strategic positioning in an area stretching from the Gulf of Guinea to the north-western Indian Ocean, which it calls the “extended Mediterranean”. This cross-cutting vision, which includes diplomatic and economic as well as military and security aspects, underlines Rome’s ambitions for a southern flank of NATO and the EU that has too often been neglected. In support of this strategy, Italy is also developing a strong naval base, centred on a major upgrade of capabilities and spectacular growth in volumes, making it an essential partner for France, particularly in the Indo-Pacific.

To read the article, click here

Grand strategy in disarray (LV 244) (free)

Grand strategy remains a demanding discipline, combining diagnosis and decision, thought and action. Since its inception, La Vigie has tirelessly explored this method. We note its structural weakening, which reflects the deterioration of political debate. Yet other countries have succeeded in implementing major strategies. If we leave it to the course of events, we will encounter tragedy. Then perhaps grand strategy will be reborn.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette : Indian elections

The elections that have just taken place in India are full of lessons. Narendra Modi did not achieve the triumph he had hoped for, even though his coalition managed to secure a third term in office. Domestic factors played their part: doubts about the Prime Minister’s ultra-Hindu political project, the tarnished aura of a man from the bottom, economic successes (7% growth) that do not redistribute enough (unemployment remains high), and persistent regional disparities.

However, this will give him a free hand internationally to continue his balancing act (LV 240). It will continue to combine its grand strategy: cooperation with the West, notably within the framework of the Quad (United States, Australia, Japan), while benefiting from the indulgence of the Europeans; cooperation with the BRICS and notably Russia, whose oil feeds its economy; pursuit of economic development in support of a globalisation that brings prosperity; attachment to its neighbours in the Indian Ocean; a marked effort towards Africa; maintenance of a degree of tension with China and Pakistan.

What is most remarkable is the decorrelation between domestic political life and foreign policy.

JOVPN

Photo credit: Maria Ripoll Cera on Visualhunt

LV 243: Paris-Warsaw: Prelude or waltz? | A funeral dirge for international law | Lorgnette: the meaning of war

Posted on 29 May 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 29 May 2024

Paris-Warsaw: Prelude or waltz?

Poland has traditionally had difficulties with its two neighbours, Russia and Germany. The war in Ukraine is reshuffling the cards in its strategic equation and prompting it to take an interest in the new French discourse: is this the prelude to a lasting understanding or just a waltz?

To read the article, click here

A funeral dirge for international law

The decision by Karim Khan, the ICC prosecutor, to ask for arrest warrants to be issued for Netanyahu and his defence minister has provoked strong reactions in the United States. Based on morality rather than law, they threaten one of the foundations of the international order, justifying in hindsight all the criticism of a law that would only target countries that are not aligned with the United States. If the threats against the ICC materialise, it could be the death knell of international law.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: the meaning of war

Soldiers are starting to write: what was still the exception twenty years ago is now becoming commonplace. But let’s take a look at the themes covered in these works: history, ethics or personal accounts, in most cases. In the latter case, the war is described as an experience. The authors show its violence, its injustice and the trauma it caused. France, for example, has been at war for thirty years without realising it, because its soldiers have been under fire (here).

Of course, the reader is left in awe of the examples given, the underlying heroism, and the moral and psychological dimension of war. But they are also bothered by a major omission, that of the political dimension of war. War is not only the work of those who wage it. War has a cause before it has a meaning. It is the work of a society before it is the work of the men who lead it. War is not war because it is an experience, it is war because it is first and foremost a political object. France was not at war because it did not think of itself as being at war. This is, moreover, the criticism we have regularly levelled at recent external operations in which the enemy was not identified.

This confusion remains embarrassing.

JOVPN

Photo credit: europeancouncilpresident on VisualHunt.com