La Vigie Nr 126 : 2 october 2016
Take stock of the situation
Taking stock of France’s strategic perspectives is a periodic necessity, especially when the scene is lively as it is now. To do this, it is necessary to step back and cross-reference the main lines of force that can be observed. We have identified six of them, which, overlapping each other, provide the framework within which France can act. But is it prepared and willing to do so?
Saudi Arabia is a new country that has long sought to control its neighbourhood, including the Arabian Peninsula. This purpose has been reinforced by the question of political Islam, which has been structural since the founding of the kingdom. A final factor, oil, is added to these determinants. This results in an attitude that is difficult to follow in a highly troubled region.
Behind this acronym in the name of petroleum is a formidable mobile war machine capable of influencing the planet’s strategic balances and controlling vast strategic areas to defend our interests and ensure that our views prevail. The PANG is the new generation aircraft carrier. It will enter service in 2040 for 40 years and will serve what is called France’s power projection in the last quarter of the 21st century.
Anticipating the renewal of the CDG AP means both measuring its contribution to the country’s current external action and projecting itself into 2060 to imagine the conflict of the time and face it. Vast challenge, necessary and realistic. No one doubts the strategic centrality of the Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean of tomorrow, and the Asia-Pacific region; economic activity will be decisive there and France and its European neighbours will be increasingly concerned. There is no doubt either that we will have to regulate this key maritime space for the development of the planet, we will have to move quickly in combat gear and be able to arbitrate tensions there. Who in Europe will be able to do it? France with its PANG! (To be continued)
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Maritime news commands and shows that the maritime fact is an important part of the equation of the strategy of a globalized economy. It is a major asset for those who know how to develop it and a lucrative predation area for those who want to criminalize it. It also carries a cooperative logic that weighs on global governance. France, although well placed, is slow to take the true measure of it.
Belgium : how many divisions ?
On 26 May last, not only European elections were held in Belgium, but also parliamentary elections. By dint of talking about Brussels to designate Europe, we forget that it has been the capital of an independent kingdom since 1830. However, these elections are worrying because they confirm that the country’s agony process is continuing, without anyone paying any attention to it. This is another symptom of the serious European political epidemic.
Lorgnette : Ormuz, June 2019
Holes in the hull, tankers on fire. The artery through which one-third of the world’s hydrocarbons and one-third of China’s oil supply exits the Arabian Gulf is threatened. Where did the blow come from? Who benefits from the case? Is it a game, a bluff? Is it serious? The equation is complex. Initially, the 2015 JCPoA agreement signed by President Obama with Iran and honestly denounced by President Trump. To negotiate better, he exerts maximum pressure on this country, which neither the Americans nor the Saudis like. Behind the curtain, Israel and its desperate Prime Minister want to create a diversion. In trading rooms, oil prices, shale gas producers.
And then there are the boutefeux, the American duettists Pompeo and Bolton who will do anything to make Iran bend and block its nuclear route, as in North Korea. boutefeux also among the Pasdarans who are losing patience. We’re shooting but blank. The amazed Europeans watch as a blockade, a real act of war, takes hold. Chinese, Japanese, Turks and Russians count the blows and rodomontades and think of a world without Americans. France is on the picket line in Abu Dhabi, powerless.
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