LV 217: Peaceful moods in the Arabian Peninsula | Japan’s strategic assertion | Coronation

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 10 May 2023

Peaceful moods in the Arabian Peninsula

The strategic posture of Saudi Arabia has recently evolved a lot, with many factors: personal evolution of MBS, redimensioning of the politico-religious issue, war in Yemen, Iranian rivalry, Middle Eastern environment, oil issue, role attributed to the United States.

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Japan’s strategic assertion

Japan continues the normalisation of its strategic posture started in 2015 and amplified by the war in Ukraine and the prospects of tension around Taiwan. It is preparing to become a true regional security contractor.

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Lorgnette: Coronation

The strong-minded who don’t mind were therefore quick to explain how the coronation of Charles III was an outdated legacy of the past, anachronistic, necessarily out of date. The ‘serious’ newspapers, The Guardian and The Times, found the King sullen, stilted, anxious.

And yet, after the death of Elizabeth II, who had led a transition to modernity and whose death marked the end of a certain twentieth century (LV 200), this coronation marks something both new and very old.

The novelty lies in the modernising touches the king brought to the ceremony. It is better to speak of an update, since the present pomp and circumstance is ultimately a recent invention (see here).

But it is especially important to note the respect of another dimension, going back further, that of the coronation. By definition, it is a unique event, a sacredness of the royal person. Charles III was aware of this and had a hieratic face. This word must mean nothing to strong minds. Yet this dimension was clearly perceptible during the ceremony, a mass in which the king, dressed in liturgical vestments, acquired another state. For from now on, his status precedes the state…

JOCVP

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Photo crédit : U.S. Department of State

LV 145 : Japan and France: maritime strategies | Army’s strategic vision | Lorgnette: Sino-Indian tensions

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Letter from La Vigie Nr 145, dated 24th June 2020

Japan and France: maritime strategies

France and Japan, comparable G7 countries, linked by an exceptional partnership, are similarly confronted with the economic consequences of the coronavirus crisis. In search of new levers to revive their economies, they are among the world’s leading oceanic powers and can count on their national maritime strategies to make the most of their assets. The global, bilateral and inter-ministerial maritime dialogue, which opened in Noumea in September 2019, is a pioneering tool enabling them to launch open projects at the scale of the maritime spaces of Europe and the Indo-Pacific, in the service of the reasoned development and preservation of the world ocean.

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Army’s Strategic Vision

The central argument of this reflection is the return to high intensity. It goes without saying that after thirty years of land-based operations of all kinds (peacekeeping, counter-insurgency, etc.) we are seeing a hardening of land-based armed conflicts outside. In order to cope with this, the army will have to be toughened up. It should be noted that this global vision does not cover the national territory.

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Lorgnette: Sino-Indian tensions

China and India clashed on 15 June in a high valley in Ladakh, on the Himalayan borders of the two countries, on the shores of Kashmir, itself the object of friction between India and Pakistan (LV 113). In a valley at more than 4000 m., unarmed border guards clashed with stones and sticks, causing the deaths of about twenty Indians and perhaps forty Chinese. It is believed that the Chinese set up tents in a disputed area. Both countries have since increased their appeasement measures.

Yet the affair is worrying: firstly, because Kashmir is the other explosive region in Central Asia (apart from Afghanistan) that involves three nuclear powers, in a context of state claims (which we note in this issue). But also because China seems to want to apply on the banks of the Galwan River the fait accompli policy it has practised in the South China Sea. The only difference is that here it is challenging not middle powers but India, itself a nationalist, which can use this as a pretext to make up for poor economic results.

This is worrying.

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Photo credit: French Army

La Vigie Nr 119 : Innovation and prospective | A European army ? | Lorgnette : changing era in Japan

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La Vigie, Strategic Letter, Nr 119, 5 June 2019

Innovation and prospective

Innovation and prospective studies are two methods to understand the future. They contribute to the strategy in a different way. They are not exclusively technological, contrary to a common perception. Useful, they must also give way to a change in approach to strategic thinking: an innovation, in essence.

A European army ?

The European army generates interest again even if it remains a tight conjecture between NATO and EU. Despite multiple attempts, it will probably emerge only from a deep reflection on the European geostrategic space. But it could already begin with a local security neighborhood coordination within the flexible framework of a European guard.

Lorgnette : changing era in Japan

A calendar is also a representation of the world. Muslims date their years from the Hegira, the Japanese speak in eras… Thus, Japan has just changed imperial era on the occasion of the advent of the new emperor, Naruhito, who succeeded his father Akihito. The land of the rising sun thus passes from the Heisei era to the Reiwa era, which can be translated as “beautiful harmony”, which is intended to herald a new spring.

However, this change is still a challenge, given Japan’s seemingly unchanging nature. Having become the bridge between the Far East and the West, anchored in the Western camp, downgraded to 3rd world economic power (thanks to China’s rise and 30 years of unfavourable economic conditions), the leading conservatism keeps Japanese society very far from Western standards.

Paradoxically, it is in tune with the new international mood, which is undoubtedly very attentive to the roots to be preserved in the face of the standardization of globalization. This permanence goes hand in hand with advanced technology and a certain market economy. A formula to be observed because it may herald spring.

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