LV 262: Transition in Syria | Training in strategy | Lorgnette : Thinking defeat through

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Letter from La Vigie, 19 March 2025

Transition in Syria

In four months, Syria’s new leader, A. al Chara, has shown great political skill. He has promulgated a constitution that is fairly far removed from its Islamist origins, which has aroused the ire of the radicals. He has negotiated with the Kurds (with Turkey and the United States) and is starting to negotiate with the Druze (with Israel). The security and economic challenges remain immense, but for the time being, the transition is proceeding smoothly.

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Training in strategy

The low profile of military and security strategies, whether French or European, begs the question as to why. If Alexander was partly trained by Aristotle, how are strategists trained today? Nowhere. The lack of training in strategy explains the current deficiency. Nobody wants to take on the task of designing such training. Who is? Yes, the Vigie.

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Lorgnette: Thinking defeat through

For a long time now, La Vigie has been raising the question of victory, a concept that is so poorly understood. In LV 238, for example, we noted the inability to think about victory. Yet the current negotiations, following three years of classic conflict, are based on a nineteenth-century strategic grammar. According to this grammar, the parties go to war, entrusting to the fortune of arms the task of deciding the quarrel. The result is usually a winner and a loser. The two parties then negotiate, with the victor imposing conditions commensurate with his victory. The defeated party accepts them and tries to soften them, even if it means preparing for revenge at a later date.

Europeans have completely forgotten this simple, immemorial grammar. It is at work in Ukraine, and both Russia and the United States are putting it into practice. This discrepancy explains why Europeans have little say in these negotiations, in which they cannot take part because they do not understand the logic. We must not only think in terms of victory, but also in terms of defeat, which is the end of any armed confrontation. The B-A-BA

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LV 261 : German elections | Transatlantic rift | Rearmament: at what price?

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Letter from La Vigie, 5 March 2025

German elections

Although the SPD lost the elections, it should find itself in government in a coalition led by the CDU in the person of F. Merz. However, conditions are not at all the same as they were under A. Merkel, and there is no shortage of challenges. Germany’s back is against the wall and it is seeking to draw closer to France, which is not in a good financial position, but which has a better energy mix, a good multi-purpose defence tool, as well as a strategic one, and thus retains a certain amount of power. Let’s see this as an opportunity where we can both win, rather than a risk where we will both surely lose.

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Transatlantic rift

The meeting between D. Trump and V. Zelensky in the Oval Office marks a turning point that goes beyond Ukraine: that of a transatlantic rift. Europeans are caught off guard and do not know how to respond. Rearmament is not a policy, and Europeans remain divided on the question of their own security. This puts an end to the fantasy of Europe as a power. We need both realism and imagination.

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Lorgnette: Rearmament: at what price?

European leaders all agree on the need to rearm. This is true of K. Starmer, of E. Macron who talks of 3 to 3.5% of GDP, of the CDU and the SPD who would agree to go into debt for this purpose. But all this raises the question of financing.

This week, Ms von Der Leyen proposed a plan that could raise up to €800 billion. 150 of this would come from unused Covid debt (a truly European resource), with the remainder coming from the debt of the Member States, which would be allowed to deduct up to 1.5% of GDP from the Maastricht 3%. Disadvantage: it is the markets that judge the credibility of a debt, not the European Commission.

This effort will therefore have to be financed. For France, an increase of one percentage point of GDP (assuming we have the underlying strategy, because hardware is nothing without doctrine) means finding an additional €25 billion: a tall order given the state of our public finances. Unless we call into question many of our sacred cows. If the current crisis prompts us to make this effort of truth and rethinking, it will have had a great merit.

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LV 260 : After the Paris Naval Conference | Europe knocked out | Lorgnette : Clouded intelligence

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Letter from La Vigie, 19 February 2025

After the Paris Naval Conference

The Paris Naval Conference 2025, whose theme was the relationship between the naval and the maritime, provided an opportunity to explore the links between state navies and private players in the blue economy. In this particular context, we need to consider the sometimes contradictory dynamics that underpin the maritime world, with at the heart of these the question of the return of security as a parameter of international trade. This is a cost that companies need to reintegrate.

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Europe knocked out

Last week’s US statements have knocked Europe out. They are a reminder of what America has been saying for 25 years, ignored by Europe, and mark the end of a double illusion on this side of the Atlantic: that of the transatlantic link and that of a globalised and regulated order.

The strategic options that remain are heartbreaking.

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Lorgnette: Clouded Intelligence

The recent AI summit held in Paris was the occasion for a series of statements, each more famous than the last: here, the prowess of new software (Chinese Deep Seek, French Mistral) that is far more economical than the Americans in terms of computing power; there, investments to the tune of €109 billion when, the previous week, Trump had announced $500 billion. In both cases, the aim is to build ‘data farms’.

But despite the headlines about artificial intelligence that have been repeated over and over again for the past ten years, the key issue is data. To process it, you first need to gather it together, and the question of where it is stored is becoming crucial: the physical layer provides sovereignty where immateriality used to reign. Localising data at home means avoiding the continental migration of data made possible by the cloud. With D. Trump reaffirming his desire to regain control, in particular by bypassing the confidentiality agreements signed with the EU, localising data becomes the means of guaranteeing our sovereignty in this new field of economic and technological warfare.

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LV 259: Rethinking le pré carré | Trump upsets everything | Lorgnette : Predation in Goma

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Rethinking the pré carré

The notion of the ‘pré carré’, which smacks of the 17th century and reminds us of Vauban fortresses, is back! The expansionist ambitions of the new President of the United States have put it back in the spotlight. If the American square is set to grow, then others will follow suit. But what about France? Does it include its overseas territories? Faced with a threat from an ally, we urgently need to get back to strategic work!

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Trump upsets everything

The Trump presidency marks a further stage in the political crisis that has gripped the United States for the last ten years. But the new president has a vision and a programme. He is imposing a new Monroe Doctrine centred on an enlarged America and setting up a new predatory imperialism, hard on allies and soft on adversaries. The allies will have to relearn the grammar of the balance of power with this frenemy.

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Lorgnette: predation in Goma

In Africa, wars come and go, amid general indifference. In addition to the civil war in Sudan, there are some striking developments in eastern DR Congo: the M23 movement, supported and equipped by neighbouring Rwanda, has taken the large city of Goma (800,000 people) in the east of the DRC, despite the Congolese army, armed militias and the UN force MONUSCO.

Eastern DR Congo experienced two ‘Congo wars’ in the 1990s. The protagonists in the current crisis are the same: in addition to Kinshasa, the neighbouring countries (Rwanda and Uganda) are pushing their pawns to take control of the territory.

Two things seem to have changed: firstly, the desire to annex Rwanda is barely concealed and is in line with the predatory movements we are seeing around the world (Crimea, Donbass, Nagorno-Karabakh, Trump’s claims). Secondly, the indulgence enjoyed by P. Kagamé, the Rwandan leader, is reaching its limits: even Great Britain is calling for a reconsideration of its relations with the controversial leader.

Has he gone too far? That would be a first.

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LV258: Complaint against X | The coveted Far North | Lorgnette: truce in Gaza

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Letter from La Vigie dated 22 January 2025

Complaint against X

Some people are now advocating leaving X, formerly Twitter, the social network run by E. Musk. Over and above all the arguments, this project raises the question of the forum in which public and democratic debate should take place. We don’t always choose it. In the belief that they are resisting, some people are simply deserting it.

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The coveted Far North

D. Trump has caused a stir with his jokes about the Panama Canal, Canada and Greenland. Even if the form is not very diplomatic, the substance is very interesting because it reaffirms the old Monroe doctrine and reminds Europeans that the Arctic zone needs their attention, at the risk of losing even more importance. It’s up to us to rise to the challenge!

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Lorgnette: truce in Gaza

A ceasefire has finally been signed in Gaza, after months of negotiations. The bases were known and Tel Aviv only signed to please the new American president, D. Trump. The agreement provides for the exchange of hostages held by Hamas for the release of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.

The Israeli government has already hinted that it will not respect the agreement for long. The government coalition is already on the rocks and it seems unlikely that the agreement will be respected to the end (33 hostages against 737 prisoners).

Above all, the agreement demonstrates Tel Aviv’s impasse, locked in a deadly conflict with no political prospects: no state in the region wants to take the Gaza Strip under its control, a reoccupation seems highly unlikely and Hamas remains in control. Tactical success has rarely led to strategic victory, especially when there is no political solution to offer. Unfortunately, the Gaza conflict is not over. The open-air prison will remain in place.

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LV257: France bankrupt | Race war 2.0 in the Baltic | Lorgnette : Introspective wishes

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 8 JAN 2025

2025: France bankrupt

The fire is smouldering in France after a dreadful year, despite the success of the Olympics and Notre-Dame: domestically, economically, internationally and in the French overseas departments and territories, the country’s situation is bad. So much so that the usual resignation is giving way to a diffuse and
and dangerous anger. We need to pull ourselves together.

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Race war 2.0 in the Baltic

The breakage of an electricity cable in the Baltic Sea between Finland and Estonia on Estonia on Christmas Day marks a new stage in the escalation between Russia and NATO. If it is confirmed that it was indeed ordered by Moscow, this aggression would be the first draft of a race war 2.0, adapted to the realities of the 21st century in terms of the law of armed conflict or the vulnerabilities of a globalised economy.

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Lorgnette: Introspective wishes

What can we wish for at the start of 2025 in terms of strategy?

Given France’s retreat within its borders and its shaky position position abroad, it seems appropriate to wish that the year 2025 to be used as an opportunity for national strategic introspection.

This forced withdrawal could be an opportunity for intense reflection that would evaluate the country’s strengths and weaknesses and, as a novelty, use this to clarify France’s ambitions. Only the superpowers can be influential in all regions of the world at the same time, but France is not one of them. It must therefore chose and know how and what to give up.

There is no shortage of resources for reflection, thanks to the many think-tanks and strategic cabinets capable of putting forward coherent options for restoring the country to its rightful place.

Then the task becomes more arduous: once the options have been chosen, they need to be implemented over the long term. Perhaps these are the most useful wishes of 2025: to find people who are ready to implement a national strategy.

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LV 256 : 2024, shocks and chaos | EMbarrassments of the law | Lorgnette : Notre-Dame once again

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Letter from LV dated 25th DEC 2024

2024, shocks and chaos

2024 shows a troubled Asia, a troubled Middle East, a confused Africa, a tormented Slavic area, a reshaping America and a chaotic Europe. Looking at elections around the world around the world, LV can see a growing divide between disillusioned voters and increasingly authoritarian systems of government, including in post-democratic countries.

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Embarrassments of the law

While the rule of law is one of the foundations of democracy, the embarrassments into which the law, its interpretation and application plunge leaders into, raises questions about their knowledge and even understanding. Since the purpose of the law is to regulate interactions between people and between institutions, ignorance of it can only can only lead to instability and, a fortiori, disappointment.

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Lorgnette: Notre-Dame once again

Five years ago, the fire at Notre-Dame caused a stir. While it is difficult to speak of the ‘resurrection’ of a building, its ‘recovery’ is good news. This is good news: France is still capable of carrying out major projects (in addition to organising the Olympic Games), thanks in particular to the decisiveness of a leader (General Georgelin) who who knew how to override bureaucratic rigidity.

Lasting and discreet emotion, familiarity, cultural value, architectural prowess, beauty and heritage, but also an emblem of the nation: ‘Notre-Dame ticks almost all the boxes that make a building an emotional heritage’ we wrote (LV 116). The symbol was shared by the powerful people of the world, including D. Trump and E. Musk. Does this mean that France convincing? The same as always, no doubt. Probably less so the management of the moment, despite its willingness to put on a show.

As was the case five years ago, the public rejected the government’s supposed desire to ‘seize the opportunity’ to show off. And we concluded: ‘May the restoration of Notre-Dame put France back on the road to confidence, serenity and the common good’.

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LV 255: The air-ballistic sphere | Victorious defeats | Lorgnette: What kind of Syria tomorrow?

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Letter from La Vigie, 11 December 2024

The air-ballistic sphere

The third dimension is now very well furnished, according to observations of the most recent wars: shells, rockets, reconnaissance or strike drones, short or long range, missiles of all types in the atmosphere or ballistic missiles, manoeuvring or not… And of course, aircraft which are losing their primacy as a result. How are the Air Force and the Army jointly having to transform to deal with this new air-ballistic operational sphere?

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Victorious defeats

The French military did not take kindly to the news that Chad and Senegal no longer wanted a French military presence in their country. At a time when the French were trying to do a good job on the ground at a tactical level, this is yet another political and strategic setback. This discrepancy is becoming unbearable, but it’s nothing new: history repeats itself. We urgently need to avoid this for our future commitments.

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Lorgnette: What kind of Syria tomorrow?

The fall of Bashar al-Assad (see post) raises many questions about both its causes and its future consequences. While some see it as the consequence of the 7 October attacks and the Israeli reaction, others point to the fragility of the regime itself, which has never been able to take the initiative and has always withdrawn behind its sponsors, without really helping them. Have Iran and Russia given up on the dictator? Israel and Turkey obviously have an immediate interest in this, even if developments in the country are still very opaque.

This raises another question: is Abu Joulani, the leader of the HTS who has just taken Damascus, sincere? As a former jihadist who has become simply an ‘Islamist’, he has become acceptable. His management of the Idlib pocket has certainly enabled communities to coexist. Similarly, there have been no acts of violence since he took control of the country. But difficulties lie ahead: minorities are likely to clash in a country in ruins where resentments can quickly turn sour. In addition to the internal difficulties, can Joulani accept the de facto dismemberment of Syria between Kurdish isolation and Turkish and Israeli occupation, not to mention the jihadists? Will he have to impose his authority, at the risk of brutality?

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LV 254: Initiative, escalation and threshold | Is influence really a strategic function? | Lorgnette: The Court and its warrants

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Letter from La Vigie, 27 November 2024

Initiative, escalation and threshold

The use by Ukrainian forces of strike capabilities in the Russian depth on 19 November was almost immediately followed by a Russian response using a ballistic missile system. This sequence demonstrates Moscow’s determination to retain the initiative in the field of escalation and to always be in a position to dictate where the threshold for the use of weapons lies, albeit with ever-diminishing options.

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Is influence really a strategic function?

The last Strategic Review of 2022 elevated influence to the rank of ‘strategic functions’. The concept is not new, and a number of measures had already been put in place. However, the promotion of this function seems to have been the result of the zeitgeist rather than in-depth strategic thinking. Many questions need to be asked if we are to go beyond the mere declaratory effect, which is struggling to convince.

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Lorgnette: The Court and its warrants

On 21 November 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister B. Netanyahu. This is an historic decision, because it undermines the accusation of double standards (LV 232) that had been levelled against the Court and, beyond that, against a justice system that punishes the defeated and the enemies of the West. For a long time, these were African leaders. The indictment of V. Putin in March 2023 showed that a change was possible: but once again, it was an enemy of the Americans and Europeans who was targeted. From this point of view, the indictment of B. Netanyahu constitutes a revolution and gives credibility to the Court, thus rejecting the accusation of two-tier justice.

However, several countries are already opposing this decision, including the United States and Israel, as well as Hungary and Austria. They say that ‘you don’t indict the leaders of a democracy’, but this immediately reintroduces the accusation of double standards, which is becoming increasingly difficult to accept throughout the world.

The French and British leaders reacted with embarrassment, between support for Israel and support for international justice. However, the rule of law and the independence of the judiciary should prevail.

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LV 253: The turning point in the world | The strategist and his house | Lorgnette: German dominoes

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Letter from La Vigie, 13 NOV 2024

The turning point in the world

The election of Donald Trump marks the end of the pivotal period that began on 24 February 2022 with the launch of the war in Ukraine. It puts an end to the post-Cold War era and ushers in a period when the West is no more. While the first effects will be felt in Eastern Europe and perhaps the Middle East, and the Asian issue will be central, Europe will have to rise above its existential fears to confront the new world disorder.

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The strategist and his house

While all eyes are on the outside world, the strategist must not forget what is happening at home. The importance of a domestic strategy is emphasised here, involving fair laws, trained and controlled forces of law and order, a good economy and, above all, an effort to train the national and local elites in domestic strategy.

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Lorgnette: German dominoes

Even if the President of the United States remains the President of his own country and not of ours, which should make it possible to dispassionately inform ourselves about the electoral campaign on the other side of the Atlantic, the fact remains that the last election is likely to have a major domino effect.

The first domino is Germany.

German society was quite stunned by Trump’s victory, with some journalists still mistaking their desires for reality. However, the unimaginable did take shape, with a twofold observation: Germany was going to have to take matters into its own hands and provide a greater proportion of its own defence, without any automatic American guarantee, F-35 docking notwithstanding; secondly, the first observation had already been made when Trump first won the election, i.e. eight years ago. What has happened in those eight years? Not much, really, apart from much more difficult conditions (insecurity in Eastern Europe, the end of cheap energy). And as no one considers that the current Chancellor, O. Scholz, has the shoulders to firmly lead the country, the government is in the process of falling.

What will the next dominoes be?

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