La Vigie nr 113 (13 MAR 19).
The taste of peace
Everyone talks about peace but many are satisfied with the disappearance of the hard war. It is not to see that this pacified world is leaving more and more free for multiple conflicts, a new “war” that goes hand in hand with liberal globalization. Peace is no longer an absolute value and surpasses all others, and therefore the taste for peace withers. Yet, in their demand for security, that is what the peoples demand.
In a non-compliant and multiple world, the global geostrategy is undergoing a new evolution that must articulate at the beginning of the 21st century heterogeneity and interdependence, the strategic virtualization that digital transformation allows and the geopolitical regionalization that rebalances globalization. To be taken into account by France to take advantage of it.
Lorgnette : Tension in Cashmere
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La Vigie Nr 112 (27 FEB 2019)
From strategic anomalies to anomy
The military word is struggling to find its place in the current strategic debate. Yet multiple anomalies in general military strategy accumulate : they announce an unacceptable strategic anomy if we are not careful. It is necessary to arouse and mobilize the military expertise to face it.
INF : Nuclear before to be European ?
The American withdrawal from the INF Treaty is a further blow to European security, while the EU is not a party to the Treaty and is very powerless. Beyond that, this decision will revive the arms race, including nuclear arms races. It finally gives the Russians some freedom of manoeuvre without binding the Chinese. Because nuclearly, we are now in a game with several actors: definitively out of the bipolar world of the Cold War.
Lorgnette : Algerian demos
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La Vigie Nr 111 (13 FEB 2019)
Venezuela, an efficacy crisis
The crisis in Venezuela is ambiguous: N. Maduro does not convince because of the country’s economic collapse, but seeing D. Trump and J. Bolton as the guarantors of democracy leaves one cautious. Venezuela is experiencing a twofold crisis of efficiency. It was a social inefficiency in the past (which led H. Chavez to power), it is an economic inefficiency today. We must therefore be careful not to adopt positions that are too clear-cut for both sides.
The energy coefficient
The energy coefficient has become a main factor in the major strategy of States and the reclassification of powers. Three rapid developments are underway, the accelerating gas revolution (LNG, shale oil, Mediterranean gas), the climatic transition that is trampling on and the digital energy that is taking off. The planet’s energy transition is a very fluid sector.
Lorgnette : Frenc-Italian crisis.
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La Vigie Nr 110 (30 JAN 2019)
The strategic impact of the demographic revolution that has seen the world’s population triple since the end of the Second World War is considerable. To go around is to evaluate the new geopolitics of the peoples, to question the African trajectory and to worry about the residual relevance of a world governance that this revolution has jostled.
NATO : friend’s discord
The Atlantic Alliance was born out of war, in the face of the Soviet threat. It had then been recycled, between European unification and an expeditionary model. But threats to the east or south were no longer enough to maintain its cohesion, while European disunity and D. Trump’s anti-atlantic instinct dissolved it deeply. The Alliance seems to be at the end of its rope.
Lorgnette : The Aachen chapel treaty
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La Vigie Nr 109 (16 JAN 2019)
A tactical reading of the Yellow vests
The movement of the yellow vests continues. Tactically, it shows the conjunction of digital mobilization and micro-local territorial rooting, moving from social networks to blocking road networks. Faced with the forces of law and order, he shows an extreme fluidity that manifests the opposition of two styles, whether facing the forces of law and order or government communication: it is gas against solid, swarm against stick, humour against austere speech. Faced with this political disruption, the government would be inspired to change its software.
A Europe torn apart
The June European elections will only be a pretext for counting. Yet the political storm has spread across the continent as the EU looks to the future of its collective governance. For lack of sufficient strategic depth, it has lost its initial centrality, its civilizational homogeneity and its utility for the European peoples. This is the next challenge after the Yellow Vests.
Lorgnette : A righteous Canada ?
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Lettre de La Vigie (2 JAN 2019)
Clarification in Syria
President Trump’s decision to withdraw French troops from Syria is a clear indication of realism. Turkish President Erdogan hoped to take advantage of this to defeat the Syrian Kurds, but they reached an agreement with the legal government in Damascus, which found a way to regain even more control over its territory. As for France, it still gives moral lessons without effect.
The strategic deregulation observed in 2018 should continue even if most of the security of France will be played first on the domestic scene with the overhaul of the current political project and the reconstitution of a common base with neighbors themselves weakened. The world march should take a more regional turn and global governance continue to deteriorate.
Lorgnette : Fraternity
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Lettre de La Vigie (19 DEC 2018).
2018 : Changing world
In 2018 we have entered a new strategic era, that of general deregulation. In an intense and disordered strategic flow, the conflictuality of the planet has evolved, the modalities of the exercise of power have been affirmed and diversified, laborious transitions and arbitrations have begun. But still no stable state on the horizon.
France : 18 month of foreign policy
President E. Macron had put two words on his foreign policy agenda: Europe and pragmatism. In the realm of pragmatism, there is a welcome discretion in the Middle East, the lack of purpose in the South, the unconvincing promotion of a major Asian strategy, a misguided American policy. For Europe, despite high ambitions based on old software, the results are very disappointing. The former probably explains the latter.
Lorgnette : Merry Christmas
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La Vigie Nr 106 (5 DEC 2018) (free reading).
French-Russian parallel: here is a analysis that examines the paradox of Franco-Russian relations, ancient relations between two countries comparable in their temperament and which have experienced a parallel history, trusting relations and the cold war opposed. With today’s Russia France maintains a critical and demanding dialogue that will lead to a European revival from the Atlantic to the Urals.
Sensitive migrations : Some believe that the migration crisis is a peak now behind us. It ignores the persistence of the economic motive for these migrations; it omits the development of a demographic gradient between the two shores of the Mediterranean, between a Europe at circa 600 Mh in 2050 and an Africa that will increase to 2.5 Mh. The security approach is now the only one proposed, without thinking about the renewal of an encalminated development policy.
Lorgnette : About “gilets“.
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La Vigie Nr 105, 21 NOV 2018
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Maybe the Brexit will take place. First of all, it shows a British representation of the common destiny, ultimately different from Churchill’s usual preference for the open sea. There is a British exceptionalism and above all a pride of English history in the 20th century that largely explains the Brexit decision. It should be noted that this decision raises complicated regional issues (Scotland, Northern Ireland) but that London should find ways to forge fluid alliances, perhaps better suited to the 21st century. The departure of the United Kingdom does not open the door to important developments in terms of European defence and Paris will have an interest in maintaining the “cordial agreement” that succeeded a century ago in bringing the two old nations together.
Here is a review of some of the recent wars waged by France, whose conclusions have left a deep mark on it or have ended badly for not having been able to establish real lasting peace: the two world wars, the Algerian war, the Cold war, Mali.
Lorgnette : Cyberpeace
Contrary to popular belief, Germany is currently in a state of profound instability. It is obviously political, but also economic, social and strategic. As a result, it follows now more than ever its sole geopolitical interests, both in the European area and in the global arena. It therefore remains very suspicious of improbable European advances that it does not consider to be the solution to its problems. France must understand the return of this German question before committing itself to a flamboyant strategy that does not meet the expectations of its partner.
Nuclear deterrence has contributed to the strategic regulation of global tensions during the Cold War and beyond. But today it is less effective and more and more often contested, diverted or even replaced by other conflicting modes that progressively invalidate its relevance. Inventory of these disputes.
Lorgnette : Civilians that have been armed
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