Europe – La Vigie

LV 236: Italian twin | Ukrain : two years on | Lorgnette : the return of war

Posted on 23 February 202423 February 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie dated 21 FEB 2024

Italian twin

La Vigie continues its tour of France’s land borders with a look at Italy. The country has opted for multilateralism, but is currently suffering from a lack of strategic vision at a time when all landmarks are disappearing: France shares this moment of uncertainty, and our interests may well converge.

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Ukraine: two years on

The war in Ukraine began two years ago. After recalling the main phases of the conflict so far, La Vigie takes stock of the situation from the Russians, Ukrainians, Americans, Europeans and French.

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Lorgnette: The return of war

In 2023, the number of wars and casualties rose to levels not seen since the end of the Cold War. While the second half of the 20th century saw a decline in the number of wars and armed conflicts, over the last few months these have been on the rise again, both in terms of numbers and victims.

2023 has counted nine major wars around the world, taking place in the Sahel (1,418 deaths in Burkina Faso alone in 2022), Somalia, Sudan (since the start of the war in April 2023, there have been 6 million displaced persons and already 9,000 deaths), Burma, Ukraine (it is plausible that each side could exceed 100,000 deaths, mainly in the military), Gaza, Nigeria, Syria and Yemen, three wars that continue to claim large numbers of victims.

And yet these wars are attracting varied attention: while the French public is interested in Ukraine and, to a lesser extent, Gaza, no one is watching Burma, the African conflicts or Yemen. We should be wary, however, of Western centrism, despite its media power. Finally, with rare exceptions, today’s wars are long. They rarely result in clear-cut victories.

JOVPN

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LV 235 : Portugal or extreme Europe | The EU faced with its contradictions | Lorgnette: the past that won’t go away

Posted on 6 February 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie dated 7 FEB 2024

Portugal or extreme Europe

Portugal, this small cape of Europe, appears not only as its extremity but also as its extreme example. Proud of a prestigious history, having dominated large parts of the world that it had to abandon, it is rich to have been. It is a fine European symbol.

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The EU faced with its contradictions

In the run-up to the European elections, and with a change of political leadership in the offing in Brussels, the EU is facing up to the far-reaching consequences of the war in Ukraine, as well as the discontent of many Europeans. Can the word ‘sovereignty’, which has ceased to be taboo, really find a definition in the language of the EU?

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Lorgnette: the past that won’t go away

On Sunday 21 January, almost 1.4 million Germans took to the streets to protest against the rise of the AFD (Alternative für Deutschland), the far-right party that advocates the expulsion not only of immigrants but also of “recent citizens”. The AFD is climbing in the polls, both in the former GDR and in the West.

The issue is not simply the attitude towards a political line but the question of the relationship with the past. For decades, Germany has held back politically because of the guilt it carries and maintains about the Nazi past. However, some members of the AFD have no hesitation in forgetting the past and putting the guilt aside.

Basically, the question posed to Germany is a question posed to the whole of Europe: what balance should be struck between the necessary duty to remember and the equally necessary duty to forget? For while we must not forget the totalitarian excesses and the abominable horrors they directed, radical repentance also appears to be abusive in that it handicaps all action. Writing history has always been a political matter, and it is more so than ever today. Should we always put the past behind us?

JOVPN

Photo credit : hans pohl on VisualHunt

LV 221 : Germany’s new security strategy | Croatian crossroads | Lorgnette : Legitimate violence

Posted on 4 July 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 5 JULY 2023

Germany’s new security strategy

Last June, Germany published its first-ever national security strategy. Even though the document is obviously general in scope and its concept of “integrated security” is not necessarily convincing, it has the merit of seeking to instil a culture of security in all Germans and to open up a democratic debate. France also has a special place in this strategy.

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Croatian crossroads

Croatia is traditionally seen as a Balkan country, although it also sees itself as a Central European country. A good pupil of the EU and NATO, it is gradually freeing itself from the historical legacy (Austro-Hungarian and Yugoslav) that has long corseted it. The Rafale purchase should encourage France to move closer to the country.

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Lorgnette: Legitimate violence

The recent riots in France have raised the question of violence in politics. It is seen by some as an alternative route when democratic processes are blocked. Thus, many have justified the violence committed during the Gilets jaunes crisis or the pension reform by a so-called democratic deficit. At least in these two cases there was a political background. This does not seem to be the case with the riots that have been shaking the country for the past few days: the observer gets the feeling of gratuitous, anarchic and destructive violence. While there are undoubtedly social, educational, police or judicial motives behind these actions, the violence nonetheless seems crude and lacking in any political objective.

Faced with this, the State must react and ensure public order. This is why lawyers explain that it has a monopoly on legitimate violence. Legitimacy comes from the sovereign people, who delegate to the State the task of organising life in society. The whole issue is that of the violence to be used in response to raw violence. Measuring violence is the way to confirm this legitimacy.

This is certainly a difficult task.

JOCVP

Photo crédit : archer10 (Dennis) on Visualhunt

LV 220: The current strategic project | Aviation news | Lorgnette : Italian genrations

Posted on 21 June 202321 June 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 21 June 2023

Source : https://www.turgisetgaillard.fr/

The current strategic project

On the eve of summer, there are numerous meetings and consultations in a variety of formats between operators around the world who are repositioning themselves. They are all looking ahead to the new strategic era ushered in last year by the war in Ukraine. The result is a major strategic project on multiple fronts, paving the way for a multi-faceted international society with new dividing lines.

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Aviation news

In the wake of the war in Ukraine, the Paris Air Show provides an opportunity to take a look at some of the latest developments in the air: the tactical and strategic lessons to be learned, as well as the technical dimensions and the programmatic and industrial challenges.

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Lorgnette: Italian generations

Silvio Berlusconi is dead: his death has given rise to a great deal of media coverage tinged with a kind of nostalgia. The man with the permanent smile transformed politics, turning it into a communications tool. While many saw him as a predecessor to Trump, we should note that he ushered in a devitalisation of political debate in Europe, with the standardisation of ideas and a passion for the ephemeral quip. Is this the end of an era?

Perhaps, if we look at the career of Georgia Meloni, Italy’s current Prime Minister, who hails from the neo-fascist right. She managed not only to get into power but also to stay there. So here we have a politician from the sovereign right who has managed to come to terms with the EU while developing a series of moves, particularly towards the Maghreb: signing a gas contract with Algeria, supporting Tunisia for an IMF loan, insisting on the issue of migration in the Mediterranean. This is something new that we need to pay attention to, especially if we look at the establishment of sovereign parties in Europe (Finland) or their electoral success (Spain). Does Italy herald a lasting trend?

JOCVP

LV 218 : After Bakhmut | Switzerland reserved | World demography

Posted on 24 May 2023 by A M

After Bakhmout

The fall of Bakhmut puts an end to a strategic sequence that began this winter. This small Russian success says nothing about the future of the fighting, but wear and tear and the beginning of public fatigue suggest that discussions are beginning behind the scenes.

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Switzerland reserved

Continuing our tour of France’s land borders, we take a closer look at Switzerland in this issue. What are its founding myths and why might its original army model interest us in 2023?

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Lorgnette: world demography

Demography rarely makes the news. Yet it is one of the most measured strategic factors, heralding long and predictable trends up to 50 years ahead. Although there is much talk of the digital revolution or global warming, and although globalisation is no longer a popular concept, demography remains a forgotten science that is necessary for building strategies (LV 110).

Now, if Europe is in a phase of accelerated demographic collapse (Italy, Germany, Spain and all the countries of Central and Eastern Europe), the latest figures published show that the world’s population will soon face accelerated ageing. By 2050, there will be fewer births than deaths on the planet. In South Korea, the fertility rate has fallen to 0.8 children per woman. The French population should continue to grow until 2040, but with an increased weight of seniors (1/3 against ¼ today). Beyond social questions (pensions), other issues are looming: what share should be given to immigration, while Africa, a world exception, should see its population double in a few decades? Which soldiers for our armies, which are already struggling to recruit?

JOCVP

Photo crédit: Tobrouk on VisualHunt

LV 215: Germany in disarray | The European issue | Lorgnette : Ill Tunisia

Posted on 12 April 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 12 April 2023

Germany in disarray

Year after year, La Vigie studies the evolution of the German question. Chancellor O. Scholz promised a “Zeitenwende” in February 2022, nothing would be the same as before, and behind this catch-all concept, everyone hoped that the situation would improve. What has happened after one year? Let us note that if some profound changes are taking place, notably in the area of defence, German foreign policy has never been so unreadable, apart from being docile to the Americans.

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The European issue

Paradoxically, Europe has emerged from the war in Ukraine little strengthened, despite last year’s thunderous declarations. It seems to be lined up behind a more fragile and febrile America than before, with the prospect of at least three decades of tensions with its eastern neighbour. At the same time, internal tensions are rising while its external image is deteriorating sharply and it is losing interest in the rest of the world. What was a model in the aftermath of the Cold War now seems to have been singularly depreciated.

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Lorgnette: Tunisia ill

Tunisia is sinking into crisis. The hope of the Arab revolts of ten years ago is fading and not reassuring. Ten years of deleterious interplay between political forces and economic decline, not to mention jihadist episodes that have undermined confidence. The election in 2019 of Kaïs Saïed, an inexperienced nationalist, is gradually moving towards an authoritarian system, both to overcome traditional blockages and to serve an obscure policy. The dissolution of the parliament in 2022 followed by the adoption of a new constitution despite a very low turnout was only one step in the political deterioration.

Today, the country is on the verge of insolvency with a huge debt. Spirits are gradually dying down, the president remains inflexible, playing on the support of his Algerian neighbour and advocating economic sovereignty, the reasons for which are hard to see. Wanting to disconnect himself from the West and especially from Europe, he hopes to find external support in China or Russia. But without natural resources, heavily dependent on European tourism and with a long history of European integration, this strategy seems very risky. A worrying stiffening.

JOCVP

Photo crédit : Deutsche Bundesbank

LV 212: Lost illusions | Luxembourg outside the walls | Lorgnette : One year of war

Posted on 1 March 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie dated 1st March 2023

Lost illusions

France’s foreign policy is facing a field of ruins: all European ambitions are shattered by the realignment caused by the war in Ukraine, our situation in Africa is devastated, our ambitions in the wider world are confused and misunderstood. So this is the perfect time to stop talking out of turn, to reflect and to choose.

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Luxembourg outside the walls

Let’s continue the tour of the French marches by studying its land neighbours, this time the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. How is it that a country with no strategic depth has managed to have the highest gross domestic product per capita in the world and to be a key player in Europe? Thanks to an influence strategy of extraterritoriality.

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Lorgnette: One year of war

The end of February marked one year of war in Ukraine, or more precisely nine if we consider the beginning of the conflict in 2014. But the intensity, the harshness, the length of the fighting and the breadth of the front make it an exceptional war and a mostly industrial war, both classic and contemporary. We have described it at length on our site, whether in our articles or in the weekly situation reports, but also in the book War in Ukraine published in November (here).

But this war can still last. We do not believe in the victory of one of the two, so much so that this term is a misleading word (LV 208). Given the progress made here and there and the tenacity of the parties, this is a war that is not frozen, the outcome of which is still undetermined. The longer the conflict goes on, the less possible it seems that negotiations on an equal footing are possible, as neither of the two belligerents is willing to settle their losses with a bad compromise. The consequences of the war would be long-lasting: a thorn in Europe’s side for decades to come. In addition to the losses, the wounded and the injured, in addition to the massive destruction, it is a European balance that must be rebuilt as quickly as possible.

JOCVP

Photo credit: *rboed* on Visualhunt

LV 211 : South Korea: the nuclear temptation | Europe’s Ukrainian spiral | Lorgnette : balloon hunting

Posted on 14 February 202314 February 2023 by A M

Letetr from La Vigie dated 15 FEB 2023

South Korea: the nuclear temptation

South Korea is the tenth largest economy in the world but strategically it is heavily dependent on the United States. However, if Europe is interested in Ukraine and Washington is interested in China, the Korean question is becoming more sensitive, with 90 missile tests carried out by Pyongyang. So much so that Seoul is talking very strongly about nuclear capabilities again.

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Europe’s Ukrainian spiral

One year after the Russian aggression in Ukraine, this article answers the following three questions: How did it come to this? How will it finish? How can we avoid a repeat? It advocates an immediate Russian-Ukrainian strategic pat.

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Lorgnette: balloon hunting

The earthquake in Turkey and Syria has claimed 40,000 lives, but the death toll is expected to double or even triple. The disaster took place in the area bordering the two countries, where the last Syrian opponents, many of them jihadists, have taken refuge under Turkish control. International aid is arriving, but the observer senses a kind of embarrassment, both towards the devious Erdogan and towards the banished Assad. As a result, humanitarian emotion seems to be stifled.

Meanwhile, America is dealing with air balloons and sending its best jets to shoot them down, issuing flight bans, suggesting UFOs… The incredulous observer thinks he is dreaming in front of both amateurism and over-reaction. He has the impression that the American government is reacting like in Hollywood superhero movies, when Mars attacks and you have to do everything to defend yourself. The show is shown to the willing public and the message is simple: the alien is China, the alien to be wary of.

At the same time, articles are multiplying to predict that Ukraine will lose.

As if the media washer were saying: Let’s move on…

JOCVP

Photo credit: U.S. Indo-Pacific Command on VisualHunt

LV 205: The Polish question | Strategic manoeuvres underway | Lorgnette : An insignificant RNS

Posted on 22 November 202222 November 2022 by A M

Letter from La Vigie dated 23 November 2022

The Polish question

The war in Ukraine validated Poland’s strategic priorities, which for three decades had been warning of the Russian threat. Paradoxically, the war in Ukraine shows the Russian weakness and the solidity of the Alliance: Poland’s strategic situation is reinforced. Is this why one can sense acrimony rising in Warsaw towards Berlin?

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Strategic manoeuvres underway

An update on Russia’s campaign in Ukraine is useful at the start of winter, when some are tempted to make a strategic move to revive the ailing global economy. Firmly supported by the EU, Ukraine is fiercely opposed to it. Already the geostrategic and geo-economic manoeuvres underway prefigure the strategic framework of a “second 21st century”. For France, a healthy wait-and-see attitude would be in order.

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Lorgnette: An insignificant RNS

Since 2012, La Vigie has been sceptical of the White Paper process, often finding it disappointing and wordy. Despite this, it has always welcomed the intellectual effort made to produce an overall strategic analysis, even if the procedure adopted more often than not condemned these works to fail to meet the need, assuming that it is a question of defining a grand strategy and not simply of communicating it. The 2008 review was too long, the 2012 review was repetitive and the 2017 review was incomplete.

The deterioration of the formula continued with this RNS (Revue nationale stratégique: National Strategic Review), prepared in secret, unveiled at the last moment, brief and agreed, the result of administrative work with little scope and above all without any debate. At the very least, the previous exercises gave rise to discussions and if the result was disappointing, everyone had at least reflected and debated.

Here, one wonders whether the exercise was not quickly dismissed. Everyone would have understood a document of expectation that set the limits of the moment, specified its uncertainties, stated its will, and gave guidelines for the present time. The reader finds none of this in the published document.

JOCVP

photo credit: NATO on Visualhunt

La Vigie Nr 202: Autumn raspoutitsa | Transatlantic strategic square | Lorgnette : The Iranian street rumbles

Posted on 12 October 202212 October 2022 by A M

Autumn Raspoutista

In the autumn of 2022, the season of the first cold spells and quagmires, we note the multiple strategic bogging down of France: the total and worrying deadlock of the war in Ukraine which saturates the Euro-Atlantic landscape, the swamps in which radical and sceptical intercontinental relations are bogged down, and finally the budgetary swamp of the future army model and of the security investments that need to be made for the security of France and the French. An autumn already well bogged down.

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Transatlantic strategic square

From Moscow to Washington, from Prague to Berlin, the transatlantic strategic stakes have changed over the past month. From the war in Ukraine to questions of deterrence, from an enlarged Europe beyond the EU to the importance of economic issues, everything points to a rise in tensions.

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Lorgnette: The Iranian street rumbles

Once again, Iran is experiencing massive protests, following those of 1999, 2009, 2017 and 2019. Experts tell us that this time things are different, that the new generation is connected, that no one believes in the possibility of reforming the regime anymore, that women are involved.

What hasn’t changed is the regime’s repression, which deploys its squads of Revolutionary Guards and other Basijis. The army remains in the background and could decide the fate of the country if the clashes persist.

No one believes in the legitimacy of the theocratic regime in Tehran. However, it has been able to interpret the interests of the country and to conduct an active foreign policy despite American and Saudi hostility, with real successes, especially in its immediate environment. A fall of the regime would probably not put an end to regional geopolitical rivalries.

But the observer wonders: in the 21st century, can a popular revolutionary movement, even a massive and lasting one, put down a tyranny? The Sudanese and Belarusian examples do not support this view. We shall see.

JOCVP

Crédit photo : awestomestories