Ukraine – La Vigie

LV 236: Italian twin | Ukrain : two years on | Lorgnette : the return of war

Posted on 23 February 202423 February 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie dated 21 FEB 2024

Italian twin

La Vigie continues its tour of France’s land borders with a look at Italy. The country has opted for multilateralism, but is currently suffering from a lack of strategic vision at a time when all landmarks are disappearing: France shares this moment of uncertainty, and our interests may well converge.

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Ukraine: two years on

The war in Ukraine began two years ago. After recalling the main phases of the conflict so far, La Vigie takes stock of the situation from the Russians, Ukrainians, Americans, Europeans and French.

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Lorgnette: The return of war

In 2023, the number of wars and casualties rose to levels not seen since the end of the Cold War. While the second half of the 20th century saw a decline in the number of wars and armed conflicts, over the last few months these have been on the rise again, both in terms of numbers and victims.

2023 has counted nine major wars around the world, taking place in the Sahel (1,418 deaths in Burkina Faso alone in 2022), Somalia, Sudan (since the start of the war in April 2023, there have been 6 million displaced persons and already 9,000 deaths), Burma, Ukraine (it is plausible that each side could exceed 100,000 deaths, mainly in the military), Gaza, Nigeria, Syria and Yemen, three wars that continue to claim large numbers of victims.

And yet these wars are attracting varied attention: while the French public is interested in Ukraine and, to a lesser extent, Gaza, no one is watching Burma, the African conflicts or Yemen. We should be wary, however, of Western centrism, despite its media power. Finally, with rare exceptions, today’s wars are long. They rarely result in clear-cut victories.

JOVPN

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LV 218 : After Bakhmut | Switzerland reserved | World demography

Posted on 24 May 2023 by A M

After Bakhmout

The fall of Bakhmut puts an end to a strategic sequence that began this winter. This small Russian success says nothing about the future of the fighting, but wear and tear and the beginning of public fatigue suggest that discussions are beginning behind the scenes.

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Switzerland reserved

Continuing our tour of France’s land borders, we take a closer look at Switzerland in this issue. What are its founding myths and why might its original army model interest us in 2023?

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Lorgnette: world demography

Demography rarely makes the news. Yet it is one of the most measured strategic factors, heralding long and predictable trends up to 50 years ahead. Although there is much talk of the digital revolution or global warming, and although globalisation is no longer a popular concept, demography remains a forgotten science that is necessary for building strategies (LV 110).

Now, if Europe is in a phase of accelerated demographic collapse (Italy, Germany, Spain and all the countries of Central and Eastern Europe), the latest figures published show that the world’s population will soon face accelerated ageing. By 2050, there will be fewer births than deaths on the planet. In South Korea, the fertility rate has fallen to 0.8 children per woman. The French population should continue to grow until 2040, but with an increased weight of seniors (1/3 against ¼ today). Beyond social questions (pensions), other issues are looming: what share should be given to immigration, while Africa, a world exception, should see its population double in a few decades? Which soldiers for our armies, which are already struggling to recruit?

JOCVP

Photo crédit: Tobrouk on VisualHunt

LV 212: Lost illusions | Luxembourg outside the walls | Lorgnette : One year of war

Posted on 1 March 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie dated 1st March 2023

Lost illusions

France’s foreign policy is facing a field of ruins: all European ambitions are shattered by the realignment caused by the war in Ukraine, our situation in Africa is devastated, our ambitions in the wider world are confused and misunderstood. So this is the perfect time to stop talking out of turn, to reflect and to choose.

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Luxembourg outside the walls

Let’s continue the tour of the French marches by studying its land neighbours, this time the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. How is it that a country with no strategic depth has managed to have the highest gross domestic product per capita in the world and to be a key player in Europe? Thanks to an influence strategy of extraterritoriality.

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Lorgnette: One year of war

The end of February marked one year of war in Ukraine, or more precisely nine if we consider the beginning of the conflict in 2014. But the intensity, the harshness, the length of the fighting and the breadth of the front make it an exceptional war and a mostly industrial war, both classic and contemporary. We have described it at length on our site, whether in our articles or in the weekly situation reports, but also in the book War in Ukraine published in November (here).

But this war can still last. We do not believe in the victory of one of the two, so much so that this term is a misleading word (LV 208). Given the progress made here and there and the tenacity of the parties, this is a war that is not frozen, the outcome of which is still undetermined. The longer the conflict goes on, the less possible it seems that negotiations on an equal footing are possible, as neither of the two belligerents is willing to settle their losses with a bad compromise. The consequences of the war would be long-lasting: a thorn in Europe’s side for decades to come. In addition to the losses, the wounded and the injured, in addition to the massive destruction, it is a European balance that must be rebuilt as quickly as possible.

JOCVP

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LV 211 : South Korea: the nuclear temptation | Europe’s Ukrainian spiral | Lorgnette : balloon hunting

Posted on 14 February 202314 February 2023 by A M

Letetr from La Vigie dated 15 FEB 2023

South Korea: the nuclear temptation

South Korea is the tenth largest economy in the world but strategically it is heavily dependent on the United States. However, if Europe is interested in Ukraine and Washington is interested in China, the Korean question is becoming more sensitive, with 90 missile tests carried out by Pyongyang. So much so that Seoul is talking very strongly about nuclear capabilities again.

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Europe’s Ukrainian spiral

One year after the Russian aggression in Ukraine, this article answers the following three questions: How did it come to this? How will it finish? How can we avoid a repeat? It advocates an immediate Russian-Ukrainian strategic pat.

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Lorgnette: balloon hunting

The earthquake in Turkey and Syria has claimed 40,000 lives, but the death toll is expected to double or even triple. The disaster took place in the area bordering the two countries, where the last Syrian opponents, many of them jihadists, have taken refuge under Turkish control. International aid is arriving, but the observer senses a kind of embarrassment, both towards the devious Erdogan and towards the banished Assad. As a result, humanitarian emotion seems to be stifled.

Meanwhile, America is dealing with air balloons and sending its best jets to shoot them down, issuing flight bans, suggesting UFOs… The incredulous observer thinks he is dreaming in front of both amateurism and over-reaction. He has the impression that the American government is reacting like in Hollywood superhero movies, when Mars attacks and you have to do everything to defend yourself. The show is shown to the willing public and the message is simple: the alien is China, the alien to be wary of.

At the same time, articles are multiplying to predict that Ukraine will lose.

As if the media washer were saying: Let’s move on…

JOCVP

Photo credit: U.S. Indo-Pacific Command on VisualHunt

LV 210: There is no magic weapon | Will the rear end hold ? | Lorgnette : Israeli-Palestinian peace process

Posted on 2 February 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 1st FEB 2023

There is no magic weapon

The recent decision by the Europeans and Americans to supply tanks to Ukraine was intended as a show of unity in favour of Kiev. The difficulties in achieving this, and the relief that resulted, show that the issue remains fragile. Above all, it is based on an illusion: that arms alone can change the course of the war, whether by their quality or their quantity. Beyond that, a concern is surreptitiously emerging: is it still about winning or is it now about not losing?

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Will the rear end hold?

If the fortunes of the weapons mainly decide the fate of a war, it is essential to also worry about the rear: if the combatants develop a certain and indispensable self-sufficiency, this is the result of the efforts made by the rear. The war in Ukraine shows us, however, that the notion of the rear is not as simple as one might think, and that the rear can also have a certain geographical depth.

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Lorgnette: Israeli-Palestinian peace process

Recent events in Palestine have once again put the Palestinian question at the heart of the news. While it is likely that everyone will do their best to ignore it, it is important to note that it is still there because no solution has been found. The Abraham Accords promoted by D. Trump explicitly ignored it, organising a peace between Israel and certain Arab countries while agreeing to ignore the Palestinian question. Without going back to the triggering element of this week’s incidents, let us observe that the lukewarmness of international reactions is justified by the assumption that there is a peace process that is taking its course. This is obviously false.

It should be remembered that this is not (despite the use by some of the word terrorism equated with jihadism) a religious issue but a question of national liberation – and therefore of the freedom of peoples to self-determination – and of the political control of a population and of territories by an occupier. This is the original objective of the peace process. That it is obviously not working means that there is no peace. But who draws the conclusions? The EU looks the other way, as it is so quick to agitate for values. It is a sign of its hypocrisy and thus loses its credit.

JOCVP

Photo credit: UNDP Ukraine on Visualhunt

LV 207: 2022: strategic review | Ukraine war: perspectives | Lorgnette: World cup

Posted on 21 December 2022 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 21st December

Merry Christmas ! See you in 2023…

2022: strategic review

The past year has seen the collapse of many strategies that lacked depth and were developed at a time when the return of war was not seriously considered. The conflict in Eastern Europe reminds us that strategy is a dialectic of wills using force to resolve their conflict. A revision of strategic thinking is necessary for those who want to remain free.

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Ukraine war: perspectives

The war in Ukraine shows a stabilisation of the fronts, which may not only be due to bad winter weather but also to the exhaustion of the belligerents. Both sides are trying to build up their strength, both in men and in equipment. But despite their declarations, neither can seriously envisage victory. The time for negotiations has come, without promising anything other than a cease-fire.

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Lorgnette: World Cup

The recent World Cup is full of lessons. Let’s start by welcoming Argentina’s victory and France’s improbable but ultimately close-to-success journey. The competition was held in a good atmosphere and the grumblers on both sides were silenced: both the moral teachers who called for a boycott and those who predicted internal dissension after the high-stakes matches, especially against Morocco. Common sense triumphed and a quiet patriotism prevailed.

These sports competitions have a huge virtue: they turn the confrontation and rivalry between nations into a game that is enough to ease most tensions, especially since the opponents are random. A match between the United States and Iran gets attention, but despite the geopolitical background, the confrontation remains benign. Sport makes it possible at little cost (whatever one says about the expenses of the World Cup or the players’ salaries) both to unite nations without pushing them into chauvinistic excesses, and to organise adversities whose outcome is resolved by a simple score.

The pacifying virtue of sport, which distributes happiness and simple emotions.

JOCVP

Photo credit : Fred Ortlip on Visualhunt.com

La Vigie Nr 188 : A difficult awakening | Attrition in Ukraine | Lorgnette : Economic backlash

Posted on 16 March 2022 by A M

Letter from La Vigie dated 16 March 2022

Difficult awakening from a long strategic sleep

Ukraine is the revelation of the strategic sleep of the Euro-Atlantic world seeing a threat suddenly appearing on its doorstep. The outsourcing of defence, the primacy of economic factors, the prevalence of national interest: these are all reasons for this abstention. Does the EU still have a heart for strategy after years of lethargy?

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Attrition in Ukraine

The armed conflict in Ukraine is in its third week of fighting. The strategist observes it from multiple angles: first of all, from a military strategy point of view, with several focuses: the course of operations on the ground, aspects of information warfare, the fate of populations or vital infrastructures. He also broadens his view to other aspects, diplomatic or geopolitical, whether they concern Russia, Europe, America or the rest of the world.

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Lorgnette: economic backlash

The economic sanctions are already causing a chain reaction that we do not yet fully understand. They are occurring in an economic context that was already convalescing from the pandemic from which we had not yet fully recovered. Now, the sanctions against Russia are hitting us and many countries around the world as a backlash.

First and foremost, the hydrocarbon market (oil and gas) is permanently affected. No supplier can replace Russia in the short or medium term, contrary to what some hope. The decisions taken in favour of electricity and against nuclear power are a clear obstacle here. In addition to this rise in costs, the fall in the euro is aggravating inflation.

The situation for cereals (wheat, maize, sunflower, nitrogen fertilisers) is even more worrying, as the sanctions affect Russia, while Ukraine can no longer export (and will soon be unable to sow). Many countries in Africa and Asia are likely to experience a violent food crisis, not to mention our farmers. It is not only Russia that will be affected by the sanctions.

JOCVP

photo credit : snamess on VisualHunt.com