International system – La Vigie

LV219 (free): An acceptable programming law, in the end | Strategic illusion | Lorgnette : BRICS and NBD

Posted on 8 June 2023 by La Vigie

Letter from La Vigie, dated 7 June 2023

An acceptable Programming law, in the end

Hastily decided and prepared, preceded by a mediocre Strategic Review, the Military Planning Law is nevertheless ambitious, although it is still a catch-up law. The €413 billion will enable us to continue to increase the density of our armed forces without falling into the trap of high intensity, which would be the ultimate goal of any strategy. Measured and balanced, it maintains a prudent coherence.

To read the article, click here

Strategic illusion

Any inherited power creates a bubble of illusion into which only its friends and allies, or those it considers to be such, can enter. There is no room for conflict, which leads to the denial of the other as a potential opponent and to the watering down of the vocabulary. The common good no longer exists because only one voice is allowed, and neither does strategy, which is designed to defend it. Is the strategist an endangered species?

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: RBICS and NBD

The recent meeting of BRICS foreign ministers in Cape Town can be read in different ways. The Western media focused on whether V. Putin would be granted diplomatic immunity for this summer’s summit, given that he is the subject of an ICC arrest warrant. Officially, the BRICS have made no secret of their annoyance at the way international society currently operates, and especially at the priority given to the war in Ukraine, while “the plight of the poor is forgotten“.

However, that was not the most important issue: the ministers discussed above all the introduction of a common currency “including how it could protect other member countries from the repercussions of sanctions such as those imposed on Russia” (link). To achieve this, the BRICS will use the New Development Bank (NBD), which will be able to grant loans in local currency. This is clearly a sign of defiance towards the United States and the dollar. Finally, Saudi Arabia was invited to the summit, and some twenty countries want to join the circle. A political convergence is in the process of being built: this is new (see dossier n°9).

JOCVP

Subscribers: click directly on the links to read online or download the pdf issue (here), always with your login/password. New readers: read the article by issue, by clicking on each article (€2.5), or subscribe (discovery subscription €17, annual subscription €70, orga. subscription €300 excl. tax): here, the different options.

LV 208: The second 21st century | The words that trap | Lorgnette: Benedict XVI, the last modern

Posted on 4 January 20234 January 2023 by La Vigie

Letter from La Vigie, dated 4 Jan 2023

Happy new year 2023 !

The second 21^st century

The conjunction of the global pandemic and the war in Ukraine has tipped the world into a second 21st century with confusing contours. The unleashed conflictuality is now self-sustaining and the planet of 8 billion inhabitants no longer benefits from the regulators inherited from the 20th century which had allowed us to approach the end of the Cold War in relative safety. This dangerous shift into the strategic jungle seems irreversible. France must take this new strategic reality into account.

To read the article, click here

The words that trap

In strategy and international relations, words count. However, contemporary discourse constantly uses words that are based on past conceptions and that do not help to understand, and therefore to resolve, the conflicts of the moment: war, peace, the law of war, victory, territory, negotiation are the most striking examples.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: Benedict XVI, the last modern

The death of Joseph Ratzinger marks the end of an era. Here is a pope who will have been the last modern.

The progressive intellectual of the post-war period, an influential player in the Second Vatican Council, was gradually transformed into the rigorous guardian of a firm Catholic tradition. Elected Pope without having wanted to be, uncomfortable with the media, he chose the name Benedict in reference to Benedict XV and his attempts at peace during the First World War and to Saint Benedict, patron saint of Europe: a very European Pope, in the end, not very much in tune with the planetary world around him.

He is basically the last modern: he lent his pen to John Paul II for the 1988 encyclical Fides et ratio, which perfectly reflected his rational spirit. He was destabilised by the contemporary, post-modern world, where emotion and media hype predominate over the search for truth. This is why we will remember above all his “renunciation” of the papal state in 2013, leaving the chair of Peter to a successor more at ease with the new conditions of the moment. This intellectual was neither a full-fledged pastor nor a true man of power. A rare example of a man who reached the top without having sought it.

JOCVP

Photo credit : Thomas Hawk on Visualhunt

LV 204 : A new strategic world is emerging | Corruption and strategy | Lorgnette : in two voices

Posted on 9 November 2022 by La Vigie

Lettre from La Vigie Nr 204 dated 9 novemrbe 2022

A new strategic world is emerging

The war in Ukraine seems to be stabilising the fronts, which is a setback for Russia and a Ukrainian success. The strategic consequences will be long-lasting, notably by entrenching the West’s opposition to its Moscow neighbour. For all that, this war is not in itself a turning point but the ultimate revelation of a multiform crisis that has shaken up our strategic world for ten years.

To read the article, click here

Corruption and strategy

Corruption, which is not generally included in the fundamentals of strategy, nevertheless invites itself into the debates as soon as it is implemented: the corrupter encourages those he corrupts to model their strategy on his own, or at least to make them compatible. Strategists are also affected, as their assessments of the situation may be biased or corrupted, making them less relevant.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: in two voices

Ah, dear novlangue… that which offers simultaneous and contradictory points of view. A delight in two recent examples.

COP27 is currently taking place in Sharm-el-Sheikh and developed countries would like emerging economies to finally stop their frenetic consumption of hydrocarbon energy – while the West reopens coal-fired power stations, Europe builds LNG terminals and buys shale gas from the US.

German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD) criticised Qatar and its protection of human rights two weeks before the start of the World Cup.

The Qatari Foreign Minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, reacted in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung: he feels irritated by the German double standard, which has nothing against Qatar when it comes to evacuating nationals from Afghanistan or buying Qatari gas or oil, but which gets on its high horse when it comes to sports…

Let us not mock too much: let he who has never sinned cast the first stone.

JOCVP

photo credit: Damian Gadal on Visualhunt.com

La Vigie Nr 201: Wild geese | What to think of the SCO ? | Lorgnette : Tigray, a forgotten war

Posted on 29 September 202229 September 2022 by La Vigie

Letter from La Vigie dated 28 September 2022

The wild geese

After having had the wind in their sails at the articulation of the XX° and XXI° centuries, private military companies are being singled out because of Wagner’s actions. The latter is however not a singularity but an illustration of what such a company can be. Its use, which reveals the weaknesses of the Russian army, should also raise questions for those who claim to be strategists. Is the development of such companies compatible with a national strategy?

To read more, click here

What about the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation?

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has just held its annual summit in Samarkand, and it has received exceptional attention from the Western media, which is on the lookout for the slightest dissension between Russia, China and India in support of Moscow. But the important thing is not there but in the enlargement of the organisation to include Iran and the acceptance of a dozen countries, notably from the Middle East, as observers.

To read more, click here

Lorgnette: Tigray, the forgotten war

Here is a war that has been going on for two years, between a federal state that wants to bring a federated state of 6 million people to heel. There have already been 500,000 victims, aerial bombardments of civilian refuges, countless war crimes (including the use of starvation), drones, clashes between army groups of more than 20 divisions each, a 5-month truce suddenly broken, a backhanded attack by a neighbouring country, the regular use of armed drones.

It’s all happening in September 2022 and no, this is not Ukraine, but the conflict between Tigray and the Ethiopian federal government. So war is not back, it has never left our world, but who cares what happens in the Middle East, Yemen, Afghanistan or the Horn of Africa?

Yet the modalities of these wars are not so far removed from what we observe in Ukraine, despite the supposed evidence of “high intensity”, in fact common to all wars. The difference lies not in the armoured-mechanised dimension of one war compared to the other, but in its ultra media coverage.

The emotion in the face of the misfortunes of our fellow human beings should be the same. This is not the case. Wealth is not just about money.

JOCVP

Crédit photo : odi.org

La Vigie Nr 183 : From 2021 to 2022: Still uncertain! | Cordial disagreement | Lorgnette : South-African Nobels

Posted on 4 January 2022 by La Vigie

Leter from La Vigie, dated 5 Jan 2022

From 2021 to 2022: Still uncertain!

The year 2022 still looks very uncertain: a banal America, a declining Russia, a tense China, a hesitant Middle East, a stalled Africa and an undecided Europe do not favour major strategic upheavals. The Sino-American rivalry remains the main structuring factor. As for France, we will have to wait for the presidential election to see clearly.

To read the article, click here

Cordial disagreement

The year 2021 marked the end of what was intended to be a year of renewed leadership for the UK in world affairs. As 1 January 2022 marked the first anniversary of the effective entry into force of the Brexit, what can we learn from these twelve months? What does this mean for the future of the Franco-British relationship and the normalisation of the relationship between the EU and the UK?

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: South African Nobels

Two South African Nobel Prize winners have just passed away within a month of each other.

Frederik de Klerk, the last white president of South Africa, ended apartheid and organised a peaceful transition to a democratic regime that allowed blacks to take power. He won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1993 with Nelson Mandela. It was he who changed the doctrine of the National Party from 1989 onwards, legalised the black parties and freed Mandela in 1990. The official abolition of apartheid took place in 1991. He died on 11 November 2021.

Desmond Tutu is a black Anglican bishop who, coming from a modest background, preaches reconciliation between peoples. His fight for non-violence earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 1983. He presided over the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, which shed light on many crimes and avoided the confrontation that everyone predicted would follow the change of regime. He did not hesitate to denounce the excesses of Mandela’s successors, notably J. Zuma. He died on 26 December 2021.

Two good men who will be missed by South Africa, which is currently experiencing a lot of turmoil. May their successors be up to the task.

JOCV

Photo credit : gr37 on VisualHunt.com

LV 150 : Turbulent return from hollydays | New strategic oscillation | Lornette: 5 questions to the reader

Posted on 15 September 2020 by La Vigie

Letter from La Vigie, Nr 150, dated 16 Sept. 2020

Turbulent return from hollydays

The summer allowed the Frenchman to regain a certain normality. The world, for its part, has rather aggravated tensions: between a worrisome America, an ambiguous China, an Africa that is still going badly, a Mediterranean that is warming up, a painful European East, the return to school is turbulent and agitated. Let’s agree that our diplomacy has difficulty ordering these disorders and printing clear lines.

To read the article, click here

New strategic oscillation

The current strategic disorder is stimulated by the double opposition between actors : the rooted and emancipated ones within the states on the one hand, and the imperial and tributary ones in international society on the other. The states are hard hit by this. But the risks of a global security crisis are framed by powerful new regulators. How can we get out of this situation?

To read the article, click here

Lornette: 5 questions to the reader

As we entered the seventh year of publication of our bimonthly strategy letter, we wanted to know what our readers had to say about it. The following are five questions that will require two minutes of our readers’ attention and allow us to serve them well.

When you receive the announcement we send out (10,000 of you receive it twice a month), all you have to do is to reply (by email) with five numbers that will show your appreciation. We are counting on you.

Question n°1: Is the format of 6 pages and 2 articles suitable for you? Yes= 1; increase = 2; decrease = 3, indifferent = 4
Question n°2 : Is the periodicity of publication convenient for you ? Yes = 1; increase = 2; decrease = 3.
Question n°3 : is the subscription cost convenient for you ? Yes = 1; No : 2; indifferent = 3
Question n°4: thematic, indicate 2 preferences among 6; geopolitics = 1, geostrategy = 2, geo-economics = 3, general strategy = 4, national security = 5, crises = 6.
Question n°5: products, do you want other paying productions? confidential studies = 1, targeted advice = 2, training = 3, closed debates = 4.

JOCV

Subscribers: click directly on the links to read online or download the pdf number (here), always with your login/password. New reader: read the article in the issue, by clicking on each article (2,5 €), or by subscribing (abo discovery 17 €, annual abo. orga 70 €, abo. orga 300 € HT): here, the different formulas.

LV 146 : Maverick states | There is no more West | Lorgnette : Hong-Kong mastered

Posted on 8 July 2020 by La Vigie

Letter from La Vigie dated 8 July 2020

Maverick states

The Westphalian international order, which was intended to be egalitarian, has ended up degenerating into the law of the strongest: some States, using leverage, will try to compensate for their weakness by adopting an original model that should guarantee their survival. We shall call them the mavericks’ and here we propose a typology of their strategies.

To read the article, click here

There is no more West.

The West was at the same time a civilization, a way of thinking marked by doubt and science, a world domination and a geopolitical device focused on the alliance between Europe and America. But both America and Europe are in deep disarray as the link between the two sides of the Atlantic inexorably unravels. The West is no longer, if not as a remnant of an ancient but already extinct world. Let us become aware of this in order to build a new system.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: Hong Kong mastered

China finally decided to take over the Hong Kong enclave, despite a special status negotiated in 1997 that was to last fifty years. The “one country, two systems” theory has just been shattered a quarter of a century ahead of schedule.

This decision does not really surprise even if Beijing takes a risk, that of seeing the financial and commercial place that HK was and of tarnishing its image. But the ceaseless demonstrations, at a time when the Chinese power has been stiffening for several years in the face of difficulties, constituted an internal challenge that could not last any longer. Indeed, China is first of all obsessed with maintaining its unity, guaranteed by sustained growth rates that were fading away, a trend that accelerated with the pandemic. The Chinese decision must first be understood along that way. Yet Beijing felt strong enough to challenge the international community, especially the United States.

Beyond that, it reinforces the bad image given by China that has spread throughout the world over the last six months. It seems to ignore it, confident of its power and negligent towards the rest of the world, in line with its ancestral attitude.

Taiwan now remains to be watched.

JOCV

Subscribers: click directly on the links to read online or download the pdf number (here), always with your login/password. New reader: read the article in the issue, by clicking on each article (2.5 €), or by subscribing (discovery abo 17 €, annual abo 70 €, orga abo 300 € HT): here, the different formulas.

Photo credit :jean louis mazieres on Visual Hunt / CC BY-NC-SA

Friedrich Nerly. 1807-1878. The Piazzetta in the moonlight. The Piazzetta in the moonlight. Cologne. Wallraf Richartz Museum

LV 142 : Europe and Covid | Otherness at its peak | Lorgnette : German Primacy

Posted on 13 May 2020 by La Vigie

Letter from La Vigie n° 142 of 13 May 2020

Europe and Covid

Europe is the continent most affected by the pandemic. However, there are many disparities and these are not mainly due to different responses by the authorities. The unanimous trend towards national retrenchment, the weakness of the EU’s response and the unlikely budgetary solidarity can be observed. In fact, the crisis is the end of a long process of division that requires strategic aggiornamento.

To read the article, click here

Otherness at its peak

The global health crisis is causing multiple tensions, both strategic distancing and tactical barrier gestures. The disruption is becoming more pronounced. What could be at stake in this brutal stiffening is the massive rejection of Western hard ways and the expiry of a Euro-Atlantic societal model whose fragility has been shown by the coronacrise. An antagonistic otherness defies the universal claim that governs the world. France must concern itself with a revival of the state of organization of the world to preserve its place in it.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: German primacy

The recent decision of the German Constitutional Court surprised only the idealists. Indeed, by recalling that the ECB had to explain its quantitative easing programme and by considering that it is acting beyond its mandate, the Karlsruhe court reaffirms in law its constant doctrine: in 2009, it had explained (with regard to the Lisbon Treaty) that “The peoples of the European Union, which are constituted in their (respective) Member States, remain the holders of public authority, including the authority of the Union“. In other words, it affirmed the primacy of the German Constitution, including over the European treaties.

This contradicts a common opinion in France, that of the supposed primacy of the European treaties over the French Constitution. Of course, the latter has been extensively modified since its inception and even more so in the last two decades. No “shaking hand” to change it, then. But this French neglect of the law is not “the rule” in Germany, where the rule is held in high esteem.

This is not national egoism: just law. Whose source comes from the sovereign people.

JOCV

Subscribers: click directly on the links to read online or download the pdf number (here), always with your login/password. New reader: read the article in the issue, by clicking on each article (2.5 €), or by subscribing (discovery abo 17 €, annual abo 70 €, orga abo 300 € HT): here, the different formulas.

Photo credit: European Commission, here

LV 138 : Virus and strategy | Europe and its West | War to virus ?

Posted on 18 March 2020 by La Vigie

Letter from La Vigie Nr 138, dated 18 March 2020

Viruses and strategy

Covid-19 reminds us of forgotten notions, such as the “Bacteriological” of the CBRN. Various response strategies have been implemented (fixing, blocking, slowing down) that put in tension the normality of systems in the face of chaos. The crisis is accelerating the current turning point of globalization because, beyond the harsh economic crisis that is coming, new frameworks for a different regulation will have to be installed. The crisis is not only a health crisis, it brings us back to the essential.

To read the article, click here

Europe and its West

Europe’s relationship with the West does not only concern the people living along the Atlantic seaboard, all European countries face the West with different strategies. The main issue in transatlantic relations is the relationship with Washington, beyond the Atlantic Alliance.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: War on the virus?

During his televised speech on 16 March, the President of the Republic called for national mobilisation in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic. It is not a question here of criticizing the exceptional measures that have been taken and which correspond to an extraordinary situation. On the other hand, the RP has declared on six occasions that “we are at war“, specifying only once that it was a health war. The search for a theatrical effect to mobilize the population can be irritating. It shows a lack of reflection on war.

At La Vigie, we regularly speak out against the abusive expression “war on terrorism“, imported without reflection from across the Atlantic and constantly used, because it fails to designate an enemy that is primarily political. In this case, the enemy is a virus! If we are at war, will the RP therefore call Parliament to implement Article 35 of the Constitution (The declaration of war is authorized by Parliament)? This is only emphasis, we will be told: a figure of speech. But war is neither a figure of speech nor an artifice of communication. Communication does not take the place of strategy.

JOCV

Subscribers: click directly on the links to read online or download the pdf number (here), always with your login/password. New reader: read the article in the issue, by clicking on each article (2,5 €), or by subscribing (abo discovery 17 €, abo annual 70 €, abo. orga 300 € HT): here, the different formulas.

Photo credit: https://visualhunt.com/re6/2a93cd15

LV 132 : AMR 2019 : Taking stock of the world to come | Europe and the East | Lorgnette: Christmas dream

Posted on 26 December 201926 December 2019 by La Vigie

Letter from La Vigie, dated 25 December 2019

AMR 2019 : Taking stock of the world to come

Our annual aide-memoire to the king takes up the year again : a neighbourhood in crisis, especially in the south, a belt of conflicts beyond, the end of the West and thus of the notion of world order, a pervasive rivalry between the United States and China, the maintenance of cross-cutting issues (nuclear, terrorism, armed crime) and the birth of new ones (awakening peoples), a passive Europe stuck between the EU and NATO, and a France on the verge of the clarifications that we must now pursue and ambition to achieve.

To read the article, click here

Europe and the East

The relationship between Europe and the East is largely determined by the relationship between Europe and Russia. While the spectres of the 20th century still poison this relationship today, a reversal of perspectives may lead to a constructive win-win relationship.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: Christmas dream

The Christmas period is often the occasion of a truce of the confectioners (trêve des confiseurs). This year, the truce will give way to a strike. Let’s make a dream come true: that of a country that would enforce its motto (Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité). Freedom in every sense of the word (freedom to move as freedom to strike or to demonstrate, the two having to be reconciled); equality (but, if we have understood correctly, this is the subject of the debate underlying the pension reform); and above all fraternity, which we vowed last January (LV 108). Now, the peoples who are waking up are all calling for fraternity, under their calls for justice and equity. It is fraternity that binds the community together, makes the other one a fellow human being despite his differences, the equal of a brother with whom we share the desire to live together, in an organized society, to live a community of destiny. This stranger that I meet in the street, beggar or beggar, is also this brother.

Basically, fraternity is a vision, not a demand; a prerequisite, not an objective. In this Christmas season, whether you are with your family or on mission, at home or abroad, we wish you a beautiful and soothing fraternity.

JOCV

Subscribers: click directly on the links to read online or download the pdf number (here), always with your login/password. New reader: read the article in the issue, by clicking on each article (2,5 €), or by subscribing (abo discovery 17 €, abo annual 70 €, abo. orga 300 € HT): here, the different formulas.

Photo Crédit : Can Pac Swire on VisualHunt / CC BY-NC