LV 233 : Outlook for 2024 | A single objective : Victory ! | Lorgnette : 2023, a hot year

Letter from La Vigie, dated 10 January 2024

Outlook for 2024

On the whole, 2023 was a gloomy year, with wars in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, Burma, the Sahel and Yemen, Burma, and the crises in the Sahel and Yemen), but there were a few  some positive flashes. 2024 offers an uncertain EU, a weakened United States  United States, a Middle East under great strain, Asia following its own course, Africa in turmoil and France undecided.

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A single objective: victory!

The funds allocated to the armed forces are increasing sharply all over the world. Conversely, many operations and wars, especially in the West, have become bogged down or have ultimately failed, in recent years. The questions that arise are: what is the purpose of the army? and how to achieve victory? A re-reading of Clausewitz  would seem a wise way of answering these highly topical questions.

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Lorgnette: 2023, a hot year

Météo-France made this clear in a note published last month:  2023 is the hottest year since the beginning of the pre-industrial era  (1850-1900). It overtakes 2016 and 2020, 2nd and 3rd. The global temperature is 1.4°C above the “normal” average.

Although some regions experienced temperatures below these long-term averages below these long-term averages (for a short time), the global consequences are clear: sea ice has retreated, many regions have experienced record-breaking heat, fires and floods have increased, and species extinction has developed. 2023 will also be one of the warmest years in years to come. We’ll remember it as an almost normal year, compared with the excessive temperature extremes that await us tomorrow.

There are two options for reducing greenhouse gases, the main cause of global warming. responsible for global warming: reduce our production (and therefore consumption of fossil fuels) or to bet on technological solutions that are slow in coming on the scale we need. But we’ll need both if we want to be able to say: “we’ve been hot! “.

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LV 136 : Nuclear deterrence : the satus quo | Ecology and strategy | Mali : speaking the truth

Letter from La Vigie, 19 FEB 2020

Nuclear deterrence: the status quo

An analysis of the nuclear deterrence discourse of the current legislature shows an assumed continuity and a fairly theoretical openness to a European strategic nuclear perspective. One will readily subscribe to this agreed caution. The reactions recorded reveal a rhetoric whose meaning is fading and priority is fading despite the current disorder.

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Ecology and strategy

The preservation of the environment is a global priority, yet it is rarely mentioned by strategists. However, when it comes to managing scarce resources, there is an opposition between a political vision (ecology) and an economic vision (economy), despite the ideological excesses of some. A response to this global problem should logically be multilateral: the American withdrawal from the Paris agreements hinders this approach. Something else must be imagined, all the more so as the strategic factor will weigh more and more heavily in tomorrow’s conflicts, a prospective that must be examined today.

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Lorgnette: Mali: speaking the truth, the end of denial?

By confirming the offer of direct contacts with Iyad Ag Ghali and Amadou Koufa, two emblematic jihadist leaders, IBK, the Malian Head of State transcends the inclusive national dialogue. What does he have to offer?

Probably little, if not a real sharing of political and social views and even local responsibilities. In fact, the military framework has been well renewed: French reinforcement (600 men for Barkhane and G5 Sahel) after the Pau Summit (LV 134), the symbolic and negotiated return to Kidal of an element of the reconstituted Malian army (based on 2/3 of local paramilitaries) on 16 February, the integration into the FAMA of 500 men from the MSA for Menaka and the launch of Maliko, a vast autonomous Malian military operation to reconquer the territory whose eastern theatre covers Gao, Menaka and Kidal.

At the same time, General (ex-captain putschist) Sanogo was released without trial. It is an attempt to bring together all the Malian actors in a Malian military coalition against AW. Al Saharoui (EIGS) designated to all as the terrorist intruder to be eradicated. Then we’ll talk about everything (political, social, religious) But we’re speaking French too. To be seen, up close


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