LV 251 : What if Trump wins ? | Where has Turkey gone ? | Lorgnette : Identifying yourself

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 16 OCT 2024

What if Trump wins ?

The presidential campaign is perfectly undecided because the arrival of K. Harris has rebalanced the poll. With only three weeks to go before the election, no one can seriously predict who will win. We must also look at the parliamentary elections, which will take place on the same day and will give – or not – some room for manoeuvre to the winner. Similarly, what reaction will the losing camp have? So many uncertainties for a crucial election.

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Whzere has Turkey gone ?

Turkey, which may have emerged as one of the major players in the war in Ukraine in 2022, has gradually seen its international position weaken. Several factors may explain this relative diplomatic weakness in 2024: an overly opportunistic multi-alignment on Ukrainian affairs, a maximalist position on the Middle East that provoked Washington’s mistrust and, above all, a nagging economic crisis that forced Ankara to adopt austerity measures.

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Lorgnette: Identifying yourself

Hard wars have been returning for three years now. In 2023, there were nine: Burma, Gaza, Nigeria, DRC, Sahel, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine and Yemen. In 2024, Ethiopia is likely to join this fateful procession once again. While French and European public opinion may be interested in Ukraine or the Middle East, it is completely unaware of Sudan or Burma. Why this difference?

Because in the first cases there is a phenomenon of identification, not in the others. In some ways, Ukrainians or Israelis (or Palestinians) are seen as others of ourselves, as well as being geographically close. War, often seen as the violent matrix of national identities, puts our own identity under strain. It is because we are worried internally that we project ourselves onto what is happening externally.

The victim mechanism adds to this phenomenon. We are always on the side of the victim. But just as the victim is easy to identify in the case of Ukraine, so there is competition for victims in the Middle East, between the victims of 7 October and the victims of Tsahal. The subject is all the more thorny because France has the largest Jewish population and the largest Arab-Muslim population in Europe.

JOVPN

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La Vigie Nr 192 : Intensity, symmetry, threshold, model | Turkish balancing act | Lorgnette: United Ireland ?

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Letter from La Vigie dated 11 May 2022

Intensity, symmetry, threshold, model

From a theoretical point of view, what does the war in Ukraine tell us? Many talk about high intensity. It is more a question of symmetry, which leads to threshold effects but also to technological mixes of old weapons and new objects. A fine diagnosis must be made that questions our armed forces model.

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Turkish balancing act

The Turkish regime is trying by all means to stay in power, but the economy has been cruelly hurting the man in the street for the past year, and the Ukrainian crisis has only reduced the margins of manoeuvre, making the diplomatic position vis-à-vis Russia delicate. As Erdogan strives to improve foreign relations, the only way out should be an increased presence in Libya, where hydrocarbons represent a lifeline for Turkey, away from Russia and Iran.

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Lorgnette: United Ireland?

The Brexit (LV 135) has raised the question of the future of the United Kingdom (LV 105) since its adoption. If many thought that the disintegration of the kingdom would come from Scotland (LV 71), the recent elections in Northern Ireland indicate a second possible cause. Indeed, the nationalist party Sinn fein (in favour of reunification with Ireland) won (27 seats out of 90) while its unionist opponent, the DUP, obtained only 25 seats. Sinn fein will therefore form the government, with the DUP appointing a deputy prime minister according to the Good Friday Agreement (1988). Negotiations were going to be tough.

The result of the elections is primarily due to social causes, inflation and the division of the DUP following the Brexit agreements which ratified a complicated agreement for Northern Ireland, a “protocol” governing customs provisions (it provides for free movement with the Republic of Ireland but controls with Great Britain). So it is the European question that is posed to London, once again. The fact remains that this vote opens the way, if things continue, to a referendum for unification in a few years’ time.

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JOCVP

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La Vigie n° 156: Dying for Warsaw or for Brussels? What does Erdogan tell us? Lorgnette : presidential race 2022

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Letter n° 156 from La Vigie dated 9 December 2020

Dying for Warsaw or for Brussels?

Polish politics are often pointed at and the news about the blocking of the European budget is clearly a crisis. But before judging, wouldn’t it be on our side a lack of understanding of a Poland that is more rational than it seems?

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What does Erdoğan tell us?

R. Erdoğan is today portrayed by some as France’s main adversary. Provocation is an art that must be decoded in order not to fall into its trap. The Turkish leader is a skilful politician who has been in power for more than fifteen years and is now changing his internal base. This motivates a large part of his current foreign policy, whose major point of friction is in the Eastern Mediterranean. A good diagnosis of the situation makes it possible to envisage the strategic direction to be taken.

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Lorgnette: Presidential 2022

Of course, as with every such deadline, the elections of 2022 will not affect our diplomatic activity and our external military actions. Obviously, health, social and economic issues on the one hand, and public order, internal security and domestic terrorism on the other, will be the core of the electoral reactor of 2022. For all that, should we consider that everything has already been said by what has been done and that there will be no external issues to consider for the coming election?

Certainly not. The world is changing so fast today, from Washington to Beijing, from Moscow to Tehran and Ankara (see above), from London to Berlin, from Algiers to Bamako…

La Vigie is preparing to take stock in 2021 of the major issues of France’s security and defence, both internally and externally.

It will examine its diplomatic posture in Europe, the Mediterranean and the world, its military capabilities and operational activities, and its general strategy of presence in the world. This work will provide input for future political projects and will help inform the voters’ judgement in 2022.

JOCV

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Photo crédit : US Dpt of State