La Vigie Nr 202: Autumn raspoutitsa | Transatlantic strategic square | Lorgnette : The Iranian street rumbles

Autumn Raspoutista

In the autumn of 2022, the season of the first cold spells and quagmires, we note the multiple strategic bogging down of France: the total and worrying deadlock of the war in Ukraine which saturates the Euro-Atlantic landscape, the swamps in which radical and sceptical intercontinental relations are bogged down, and finally the budgetary swamp of the future army model and of the security investments that need to be made for the security of France and the French. An autumn already well bogged down.

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Transatlantic strategic square

From Moscow to Washington, from Prague to Berlin, the transatlantic strategic stakes have changed over the past month. From the war in Ukraine to questions of deterrence, from an enlarged Europe beyond the EU to the importance of economic issues, everything points to a rise in tensions.

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Lorgnette: The Iranian street rumbles

Once again, Iran is experiencing massive protests, following those of 1999, 2009, 2017 and 2019. Experts tell us that this time things are different, that the new generation is connected, that no one believes in the possibility of reforming the regime anymore, that women are involved.

What hasn’t changed is the regime’s repression, which deploys its squads of Revolutionary Guards and other Basijis. The army remains in the background and could decide the fate of the country if the clashes persist.

No one believes in the legitimacy of the theocratic regime in Tehran. However, it has been able to interpret the interests of the country and to conduct an active foreign policy despite American and Saudi hostility, with real successes, especially in its immediate environment. A fall of the regime would probably not put an end to regional geopolitical rivalries.

But the observer wonders: in the 21st century, can a popular revolutionary movement, even a massive and lasting one, put down a tyranny? The Sudanese and Belarusian examples do not support this view. We shall see.

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La Vigie Nr 121 : There is no cyberwar | Equation of strategy | Lorgnette : Desescalation

La Vigie Nr 121, 3 July 2019

There is no cyberwar

The term cyberwar sounds good and is regularly used by many: Yet it is false, which does not mean that there is no latent cyberconflict marked by opposition by all against all. Moreover, war does not ignore cyberspace because there is on the contrary a lot of cyberspace in the conduct of war and military operations.

Equation of strategy

the Grand strategy is the art of combinations. The equation of the strategy of France is simple to state, mixture of defense of interests, exercise of responsibilities, values assumed, valued assets and compensated weaknesses. In the current strategic slump it is difficult to establish, especially in the presence of a deep European crisis and a breakdown of multilateralism.

Lorgnette : desescalation

Between Iran and the United States, the rag has been burning for weeks and observers are struggling to decipher threatening speeches, avenging invective and provocative statements. It should be noted that the deregulation initiative has come from Washington for the past two years, from a president who has thrown away the Paris Agreement, the Iranian JCPoA, the INF Treaty and any multilateral mechanism that would undermine the position of strength from which he wants to restore the dominance of American interests in the world. It was noted with interest that the European clan had remained united in preserving this agreement with Iran and that it had engaged in resolute resistance to the American position. The West is nothing more than a fiction, interests and methods diverge.
There remain two embarrassed countries that are trying to get in touch with each other with the assets to do so, Japan and France, whose strategic analyses are converging more and more, particularly on maritime issues. At the last G20 meeting, which was quite disappointing, they were also responsible for de-escalating the situation.
De-escalation is the great strategy of which France must be the tireless craftsman in the world (LV 89).

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JDOK

The withdrawal of the United States from the Vienna Agreement: an injustice for Iranians

Following our number 95 (read here for free), we are pleased to welcome Master Ardavan Amir-Aslani who is a business lawyer in Paris. He has published several books on Iran and the Middle East, the last of which, From Persia to Iran, 2500 years of history (L’Archipel, 2018).

On the 8th May, the United States withdrew from the Iranian nuclear agreement signed in Vienna on the 14th July 2015. This decision brought about the re-establishment of sanctions which had been lifted, as well as the implementation of new sanctions on multinationals who want to invest in Iran.

Source

This decision has been seen as an injustice in Tehran, especially when considering Iran’s full compliance with the provisions of the nuclear agreement, which was officially confirmed by the AIEA in eleven successive reports, the last of which intervened on the 9th of May by Yukiya Amano, President of the IAEA. Continue reading “The withdrawal of the United States from the Vienna Agreement: an injustice for Iranians”

La Vigie n° 95 (free) – 23 May 2018 : Trump, Iran, and impotent Europe – An impossible regulation – Lorgnette : Iraqi populism

Lettre n° 95,  La Vigie 23 May 2018

 

Photo credit: IAEA Imagebank on VisualHunt.com / CC BY-NC-ND

 

Trump, Iran, and impotent Europe

Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal only surprised the gullible. It confirms an electoral promise and implements its policy of questioning the state of the world. Of course, it has consequences in the Middle East and on the nuclear order. Above all, it has very deep economic effects that affect Europeans first and foremost. These are in the hour of truth, realizing that the rogue state is not the one they believed. Will they react firmly or will they demonstrate, once again, their helplessness?

 

An impossible regulation

Control and regulate the strategic nuclear system has been a long process slow to establish itself in the bipolar world of the cold war. Deregulation began at the end of this one with multipolarity, tolerances, exceptions and manipulations. It is growing with the US withdrawal of the 2015′ Iranian agreement that threatens the exit of the Korean stalemate, ignores the need for nuclear power, sends countries to reassure towards a creeping military nuclear proliferation. Nuclear disarmament is not for tomorrow.

Lorgnette :  Iraqi populism

JDOK

Photo credit: IAEA Imagebank on Visualhunt / CC BY-SA

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N° 86 : Strategic dead angles and French vulnerabilities – Revolts: season 2? – Lorgnette: Missile manouver

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Strategic dead angles and French vulnerabilities

What are the blind spots of our national defense and our national security? Certainly, our defense of the national territory, although imperfect, is always up to France. But our position of internal security remains weakened by the conceptual deficiencies of a national strategy whose coherence is insufficient. It is necessary to put in capacity not only social, political and judicial but also military to ensure the necessary public order guarantee of the rule of law.

Revolts: season 2?

In early 2018, two popular movements affect Iran and Tunisia. If they refer apparently to the previous troubles (respectively in 2009 and 2011), they are distinguished by their mainly social nature. Above all, this means that if political systems are not challenged, internal balances are a problem, whether complicated alliances in Tehran or the coalition in place in Tunis. The hypothesis of a regime change is unlikely, but the absence of an internal political alternative is likely to provoke other similar crises.

Lorgnette: Missile manouver

The « Decertification » by Mr. Trump (TFN)

Certification of the Iranian nuclear deal, beyond political communication

1 – The Iranian nuclear question, central in political communication is not the heart of the Iranian problem. If Iran is confined, from an economic point of view, it is for a very different reason : the country is the laboratory for counter-globalization. If it bothers us, it’s because it has put in place an extremely elaborate ideological system extolling the re-establishment of border control, the perpetuation of identities and having globalism and its motor as a designated enemy.

Iran: Trump garde l'accord sur le nucléaire mais va imposer d'autres sanctionsSource

2 –  Since the beginning of his electoral campaign, President Trump has advocated an isolationist line for the United States, therefore opposing the warmongering neo-conservatism of Hilllary Clinton. But this opposition belies on one issue : Iran. On this particular issue, there is a switch in the position of the two former candidates :Trump wanting to dismantle the agreement wanted by Obama with Iran. The american president is therefore only faithful to the neoconservative line with regards to the Iranian question, that is no doubt non-negotiable for him. He cannot publicly support the driving force of counter-globalization.

3 – In the battle of power that is being waged in Washington, the isolationist positions of Mr Trump have been methodically undermined. His close advisors have been systematically pushed aside. The President is, for all intents and purposes, the next on the list. Incidentally, the question of impeachment is openly brought up with the republicans today. In this context, the non-certification of the Iranian nuclear deal is a token given to the neo-conservatives by Trump, allowing him some respite.

4 –  In Iran, President Rohani, who governs subtly in the center, being mindful to give his opposition some free space (thus how  Ahamadinejad came back onto the political scene), is the man who managed to negociate the nuclear deal. If this deal becomes null and void, the conservative opposition – who already consider him to be a traitor to Iran because of his ability to negotiate with his opponents – will take advantage of the situation to marginalize him. A  hardening of the Iranian State Apparatus would then follow. It is the reason why Israel doesn’t necessarily want to disturb the existing status quo, the geo-economic confinement of Iran, using the nuclear pretense.

5 – If the deals is not certified, we must see that the interpretation that Iran will have will be nothing like we imagined. Shaped by our Roman judicial culture, we would imagine a unilateral end and failure. Nothing of the sort in Iran where every deal is renegotiated infinitely until its death. The history of the oil contracts between Persia and Great Britain is proof of that to us. In any case the Iranians view Trump as an american version of Ahmadinejad. A man who makes a lot of noise but has trouble making any progress on foreign policy issues. They don’t expect anything of him. As a matter o fact, it is likely that certification or not, the impact on Iranian economy will be non-existent. Indeed, the previous agreement did not reopen Iran up to investments.

 

Thomas Flichy de La Neuville