Lettre de La Vigie (2 JAN 2019)
Clarification in Syria
President Trump’s decision to withdraw French troops from Syria is a clear indication of realism. Turkish President Erdogan hoped to take advantage of this to defeat the Syrian Kurds, but they reached an agreement with the legal government in Damascus, which found a way to regain even more control over its territory. As for France, it still gives moral lessons without effect.
The strategic deregulation observed in 2018 should continue even if most of the security of France will be played first on the domestic scene with the overhaul of the current political project and the reconstitution of a common base with neighbors themselves weakened. The world march should take a more regional turn and global governance continue to deteriorate.
Lorgnette : Fraternity
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De-escalation as a grand strategy
The time has come for France to adopt a grand strategy that characterizes it for the beginning of the twenty-first century. At a time when a Cold War episode is looming and the Euro-Atlantic world seems to be losing its composure and cohesion, France could promote widespread de-escalation and a return to the security fundamentals of the European continent. To regain the advantageous position of equilibrium power between America, Europe, Africa and Asia, it will have to some extent to misalign and detox from militant support to the structures and practices of the world of yesterday.
In Syria, the civil war has always seen outsiders intervene. As the IS vanished, we are now witnessing a rise in auctions that sees two axes confront almost directly: the United States, Israel and Arabia on one side; Syria, Russia, Iran and Turkey on the other. If all the leaders had shown stability in the past, it would not worry too much. Unfortunately, it is not the case. The risk of escalation is worrying.
La Lorgnette : A French narrative
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