La Vigie – English – Page 3 – The bimonthly geostrategic letter

LV 230: The Red Sea and its great game | Monaco perched on its rock | Lorgnette: COP 28

Posted on 29 November 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, 29 Nov 2023

The Red Sea and its great game

The Red Sea is a vital artery of international trade, particularly necessary for Europeans, and is subject to local strategic dynamics between neighbouring countries, regional dynamics with neighbouring areas, and global dynamics with the major players (United States, China, Russia) involved to a greater or lesser extent. Only Europe has little interest in the area. Did you say geopolitics?

To read the article click here

Monaco perched on its rock

Let’s continue our tour of France’s terrestrial neighbours by exploring the principality of Monaco. Gradually moving closer to France in search of a protector, it was only when it lost most of its territory that its development could really begin. Today, relations are friendly and cooperative, but France is still very much present, and Monaco’s sovereignty remains relative.

To read the article click here

Lorgnette: COP 28

The next Conference of the Parties (COP) on the environment will open in Dubai on 30 November. It is the continuation of a process launched at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio, bringing together experts and decision-makers every year under the aegis of the United Nations and with the help of experts from the IPCC. It implements the Kyoto Protocol (signed in 1995 and ratified in 2005), which commits the parties involved to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 5%. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to less than 2°C. Last year in Sharm el-Sheikh, a fund was set up to help poor countries affected by climate change.

This year’s challenge is to reduce the use of fossil fuels (coal, gas and oil). But the current strategic climate is not conducive to a binding international agreement. While the EU needs clear commitments to phase out fossil fuels, many countries in the South are still dependent on fossil fuels for their development, whether they produce them or need them.

Alongside the ongoing conflicts and underlying geopolitical struggles, the mechanics of international negotiation are struggling.

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JOVPN

LV 229: The United States and the new world | Strategic issues for the seabed | Lorgnette: Spanish turmoil

Posted on 15 November 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 15 November 2023

The United States and the new world

Faced with the upheavals underway, America is redefining its priorities. Despite its domestic political difficulties, and backed by a buoyant economy, it is returning to the Middle East, closing the Ukrainian question and renewing its ties with China. This pragmatism should come as no surprise, but we need to draw the consequences.

To read the article, click here

Strategic issues for the seabed

The seabed, whose relatively long-standing exploitation has been facilitated by the implementation of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, is becoming a major strategic territory. With the growth in economic activity and the energy and digital transitions underway, they are home to critical infrastructures that need to be able to monitor them and intervene if necessary.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: Spanish turmoil

Spanish politics never ceases to surprise us. After a party of vacuums (LV 180), the Catalan question is back (LV 94). Last May, the Left in power (LV 117) suffered a debacle in the local elections. P. Sánchez decided to dissolve the assembly and won his gamble in the July elections, where his party held its own. But to stay in power, he needed to secure a majority, which he could only find among the independentists, particularly the Catalans. This agreement was reached on 9 November in exchange for a highly controversial amnesty law, which allows Catalan leader C. Puigdemont, who has been in exile (on the run) in Brussels since 2017, to return to the country. In 2017, the country experienced one of the worst political crises in its modern history (LV 80).

However, Mr Sánchez did not come out on top, and if he is able to reach this agreement, it is because the right-wing leader, A. Feijóo, was unable to build a coalition. So here we have the PSOE, a weakened party, which only manages to find a coalition in a minority situation by reviving the question of independence.

Unsurprisingly, demonstrations organised by the right have multiplied since the announcement of the agreement. Spain is set for another troubled period.

JOVPN

LV 223 (free) : What the war in Gaza tells us | Paper from Armenia | Lorgnette: the fall of Icarus

Posted on 1 November 20231 November 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 1st November 2023

The Hamourabbi code (source)

What the war in Gaza (or Sukkot) tells us

To go beyond considerations on the ground about the war in Sukkot (Gaza), we will first try to determine the war aims of each side, before asking ourselves what this war says, a further stage in a re-primitivisation of the contemporary act of war.

To read the article, click here

Paper from Armenia

The theatres of war and the ways in which they are waged may change, but the invariants of strategy can be observed in all theatres, and there is a high price to pay for neglecting them, whatever the mode of action chosen. Armenia has bitterly rediscovered them because it did not respect them.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: the fall of Icarus

If you fly too close to the sun, you risk burning your wings and falling into the abyss…

This is what the various dignitaries of the Chinese Communist Party or officials of the State apparatus experience on a regular basis, and when they fall from grace for whatever reason – which is never made public – they are invariably accused of “acts of corruption” and stripped of their professional positions and social standing.

However, the Chinese regime has done particularly well this year, dismissing its foreign affairs and defence ministers one after the other and making them disappear both literally and figuratively (damnatio memoriae by removing all references to them from government websites). The first, Qin Gang, has been missing since 25 June, the second, Li Shangfu, since 29 August. They had been sworn in in March of the same year.

These ruthless purges, while reminiscent of Mao, have rarely been so close to Xi Jingping’s entourage, and are both Stalinist in their implacability and Orwellian in their radicalism.

Still, it’s good to live in the West.

JOVPN

LV 227 : AI and cyber attacks (2/2) | Vertical crises in the levant | Lorgnette: Free trade… or not

Posted on 19 October 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 18 October 2023

AI and cyber attacks (2/2)

This is the second part of the article dedicated to the interaction between artificial intelligence and operations in cyberspace. We draw up a typology of possible modes of action, both offensive and defensive (link to 1st article).

To read the article, click here

Vertical crises in the levant

The Sekkot war between Hamas and Israel reopens the Palestinian question. In addition to the feared conflagration in the Middle East, there is a risk that the crises in Syria, the Caucasus and Ukraine will combine to form a refusal front.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: Free trade… or not

The fabulous 1990s are long gone… the almost dreamlike interlude when the West had succeeded and won everything, defeated the USSR, imposed liberal capitalism at world level (think of the WTO), the world was at peace (forget Yugoslavia), the ‘good’ war between the good guys and the bad guys (1st Gulf War) had gone off like clockwork, the ‘developing’ countries supplied us with resources and cheap goods… ah…

Sic transit gloria mundi.

It’s no longer a time for free trade, and we’re in for a rude awakening. The coronacrisis has only accelerated the inward-looking trend that must have Pareto turning in his grave. The neoliberal monetary systems of the twentieth century, based on complacent credit and infinite speculation, will not last forever and the awakening will be painful. So we’re looking for our roots in the truest sense of the word, slowly returning to the Earth, like mining resources (for energy and industry). Extraction of rare earths in Sweden around 2035. Lithium as early as 2027 in Allier, 2028 in Cornwall. The old tin mines will also reopen there… History, an eternal restart!

JOVPN

Photo credit: Ars Electronica on VisualHunt

LV 226: Near and Middle East: stabilisation or future crises in sight? | Prudence and strategy | Lorgnette: Elections in Moldova

Posted on 4 October 20234 October 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 4 October 2023

Near and Middle East: stabilisation or future crises in sight?

The recompositions underway in the Middle East, between Syria’s normalisation of its international position, the safeguarding of Turkish influence in the Caucasus and the re-establishment of Saudi Arabia-Iran relations under the auspices of Beijing, are tending to safeguard the strategic triangle of Russia, Turkey and Iran to the detriment of American and European influence.

To read the article, click here

Prudence and strategy

Prudence has a bad reputation, yet it is a necessary quality for a strategist: discerning, forward-looking and informed by experience, it supports the two strategic principles of freedom of action and adaptation. Is there any need to stress that France should adopt a more cautious strategy than it does today?

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: Elections in Moldova

Last Saturday, Slovaks went to the polls and Robert Fico’s party came out on top with 23% of the vote. It should not be too difficult for him to form a coalition and run the country for the legislature. A populist accused of corruption, he managed to convince voters with a surprising foreign policy line: while Slovakia had consistently supported Ukraine, the new prime minister explained that peace negotiations with Moscow were necessary.

In so doing, he joins Hungary’s Victor Orban, who is also paying lip service to Kiev. It should be noted that these two countries, along with Poland, are at the forefront of the controversy with Kiev over cereals, which led to a row between Warsaw and Kiev a fortnight ago. The Visegrad group (which also includes the Czech Republic, which remains a loyal supporter of Ukraine) brings together Central European countries that exemplify what some observers describe as illiberalism.

Yet the question they raise is not simply that of Ukraine and its relationship with Moscow, but also that of European balances. While some were congratulating themselves on European solidarity 18 months ago, it is about to be sorely tested.

JONVP

LV 225: Ambiant disaster | If there’s only one left, it’s IndoPac | From Korea to Armenia

Posted on 21 September 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 20 Sept. 2023

Ambient disaster

The ideologies of the twentieth century, communism and liberalism, have lost their hold on society. For twenty years, the world has witnessed the return of religion as a geopolitical factor, but two catastrophisms – ecological and demographic – have now become replacement ideologies. We need to move beyond them.

To read the article click here

If there’s only one left, it’s IndoPac

For several months, if not years, France’s foreign policy has suffered from a notable lack of clarity in its latest qualification as a “trusted partner power”. Its long-standing partners are taking advantage of this to bully Paris and subject it to historic affronts. Because we have to exist on the international stage, the only thing left is the Indo-Pacific, which we are boosting in the hope that our new partners will have confidence in us.

To read the article click here

Lorgnette: from Korea to Armenia

President Putin welcomed Kim Jong Un, the President of North Korea, with great pomp and ceremony. Kim Jong Un is not accustomed to being received in this way, as his country has opted for long-term strategic isolation. The Korean peninsula is not at peace, since only an armistice was signed in 1953, and since then Pyongyang has maintained a considerable military effort, to the point of developing nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles and possibly a missile-launching submarine. The advantage of military dictatorships is that they have stockpiles. Korea is said to be supplying Russia with 10 million shells to maintain its RAPFEU in Ukraine. You have the allies you can get.

That’s what Armenia told itself when, in 2020, it was unable to resist the Azerbaijani offensive. Russia did just enough to prevent things going too far (LV 151, 154 and 184) and moved on. So its troops went to Ukraine and are still there. From then on, the CSTO, which organised the “near abroad”, lost its strength and Armenia announced that it was organising military exercises with the United States. Moscow is no longer able to guarantee wider security and is losing its most traditional supporters. Azerbaijan is taking advantage. Russia is letting it happen…

JONVP

LV 224: Africa: a change of cycle – AI and cyber attacks (1/2) – Lorgnette: Back to school, a disaster as usual ?

Posted on 6 September 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie dated 6 Sept. 2023

Africa: a change of cycle

The succession of coups d’état in West and Central Africa is evidence of a change of cycle that goes beyond the loss of French influence, due to a great deal of blundering and blindness. It is time to return to the strategic method.

To read the rest, click here

AI and cyber attacks (1/2)

The link between artificial intelligence and cyber attacks has curiously not been sufficiently explored. In a series of two articles, we will analyse how the two feed into each other, whether for defence or attack, and what missions and processes can be implemented. In this first part, we trace the major stages in the evolution of cyber conflictuality since the Copernican revolution of the attack on Estonia in 2017.

To read the rest, click here

Lorgnette: Back to school, a disaster as usual ?

It’s back to school time, and with it comes the usual stress that serves as a smokescreen for all sorts of delays and other problems.

When you look at the news, you are struck by the fact that it is always bad: everything is going wrong. As already noted last year (LV 203), the disaster seems to be total and the crises endless: Ukraine is not winning the war, African countries are staging repeated putsches, inflation is continuing, prices at the petrol pump are as high as ever, school supplies are too expensive, the Restos du cœur are receiving fewer donations but have to help many more people as the population sinks into precariousness, Insecurity is spreading to our towns and cities, the flow of refugees and immigrants is increasing, people no longer have confidence in the government, there aren’t enough teachers, the climate is out of kilter, it’s never been so hot, it’s never been so dry, there are fires, invasive species are destroying biodiversity, and so on.

We should ask ourselves about this trend to turn news into “bad news”: the climate is changing, and it is indeed becoming unhealthy. What is the point of alarmism, defeatism and declinism?

Let’s take a breath and transform the future!

JOCVP

LV 223 : From the Sahel to the Gulf od Guinea | Lorgnette : OSS in Papua | Reading nots

Posted on 2 August 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 3 August 2023

From the Sahel to the Gulf of Guinea

In the Sahel, geography, demography, the environment and cultural practices are obvious obstacles to social and economic development. They are rarely diagnosed, and the excess of virtuous rhetoric and the ineffectiveness of our action lead to a rejection of France. Meanwhile, insecurity is spreading towards the Gulf of Guinea.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: OSS in Papua

Despite the AUKUS slap in the face (LV 176), France was and intended to remain a power in the Asia-Pacific. First stop, N. Modi as guest of honour on 14 July and parade of a Punjabi regiment. Second stage: an ambitious presidential tour to assert France’s presence in Oceania. After the African tours, which confirmed that France was a legacy power with a vague vision of the future (LV 216), New Caledonia, Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea would be France’s heralds.

New status for Caledonia, creation of a Pacific Academy, opening of a French embassy in Samoa, commitment to the fight against global warming, establishment of protected areas, Pacific Erasmus, greening of Papuan infrastructures, reiterated refusal of power, departure pilou from Caledonia with dancers wearing the independence flag on their foreheads, departure photo from Papua smelling of neo-colonialism…

57 years after General de Gaulle came to the New Hebrides for the 1st visit of a French president to Papua, China can tremble. OSS 117 is back!
Summer reading notes

To read the article, click here

Reading notes

To read the article, click here

JOCVP

Photo crédit : Magharebia on visual hunt (ici)

LV222 : The temptation of bukelism | Vinius empty-handed | Lorgnette : commission uner control

Posted on 19 July 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 19 July 2023

The temptation of Bukelism

The recent riots in France showed that society was deeply divided and that the signals it was sending to those in power were not being heeded. While the latter are the guarantors of public order and tranquillity, recourse to Bukelism (in reference to the President of El Salvador) could be considered as a way of “closing ranks” among the population, a necessary condition for the implementation of a national strategy.

To read the article, click here

Vilnius empty-handed

The Vilnius summit was billed as a renaissance. It has to be said that the results have been disappointing. President Zelesnky left empty-handed, a sign of the summit’s two unanswered questions: the first concerned the extent of support for Ukraine, and the second the strength of American interest in Europe.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: Commission under control

The European Commission, headed by Ursula van der Leyen (nicknamed VDL), is once again at the centre of criticism. An American (Scott Morton) has been appointed Chief Economist in the Competition Directorate. Apart from her nationality, the fact that she has advised the likes of Apple, Amazon and Microsoft raises questions, given that one of the challenges facing the directorate will be to examine the weight of the American digital majors. This is problematic, as both Paris and the European Parliament have pointed out. In the end, she will not be taking up the post.

But this affair comes on the heels of several others, such as the text messages exchanged between Ms von der Leyen and Pfizer’s CEO at the time of covid, and the clumsy outbursts from the same VDL on international affairs, which is not her role but that of the High Representative.

Is this simply amateurism on her part? Remember that she was unconvincing in her previous ministerial post in Germany and that Berlin was very happy to get rid of her. Or is it a more or less conscious structural alignment with Washington? Just asking the question is embarrassing.

JOCVP

Photo crédit : https://bulgaria.postsen.com/world/224846/Zelensky-played-the-role-of-the-Jewish-grandmother-at-the-NATO-summit.html

LV 221 : Germany’s new security strategy | Croatian crossroads | Lorgnette : Legitimate violence

Posted on 4 July 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 5 JULY 2023

Germany’s new security strategy

Last June, Germany published its first-ever national security strategy. Even though the document is obviously general in scope and its concept of “integrated security” is not necessarily convincing, it has the merit of seeking to instil a culture of security in all Germans and to open up a democratic debate. France also has a special place in this strategy.

To read the article, click here

Croatian crossroads

Croatia is traditionally seen as a Balkan country, although it also sees itself as a Central European country. A good pupil of the EU and NATO, it is gradually freeing itself from the historical legacy (Austro-Hungarian and Yugoslav) that has long corseted it. The Rafale purchase should encourage France to move closer to the country.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: Legitimate violence

The recent riots in France have raised the question of violence in politics. It is seen by some as an alternative route when democratic processes are blocked. Thus, many have justified the violence committed during the Gilets jaunes crisis or the pension reform by a so-called democratic deficit. At least in these two cases there was a political background. This does not seem to be the case with the riots that have been shaking the country for the past few days: the observer gets the feeling of gratuitous, anarchic and destructive violence. While there are undoubtedly social, educational, police or judicial motives behind these actions, the violence nonetheless seems crude and lacking in any political objective.

Faced with this, the State must react and ensure public order. This is why lawyers explain that it has a monopoly on legitimate violence. Legitimacy comes from the sovereign people, who delegate to the State the task of organising life in society. The whole issue is that of the violence to be used in response to raw violence. Measuring violence is the way to confirm this legitimacy.

This is certainly a difficult task.

JOCVP

Photo crédit : archer10 (Dennis) on Visualhunt

LV 220: The current strategic project | Aviation news | Lorgnette : Italian genrations

Posted on 21 June 202321 June 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 21 June 2023

Source : https://www.turgisetgaillard.fr/

The current strategic project

On the eve of summer, there are numerous meetings and consultations in a variety of formats between operators around the world who are repositioning themselves. They are all looking ahead to the new strategic era ushered in last year by the war in Ukraine. The result is a major strategic project on multiple fronts, paving the way for a multi-faceted international society with new dividing lines.

To read the article, click here

Aviation news

In the wake of the war in Ukraine, the Paris Air Show provides an opportunity to take a look at some of the latest developments in the air: the tactical and strategic lessons to be learned, as well as the technical dimensions and the programmatic and industrial challenges.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: Italian generations

Silvio Berlusconi is dead: his death has given rise to a great deal of media coverage tinged with a kind of nostalgia. The man with the permanent smile transformed politics, turning it into a communications tool. While many saw him as a predecessor to Trump, we should note that he ushered in a devitalisation of political debate in Europe, with the standardisation of ideas and a passion for the ephemeral quip. Is this the end of an era?

Perhaps, if we look at the career of Georgia Meloni, Italy’s current Prime Minister, who hails from the neo-fascist right. She managed not only to get into power but also to stay there. So here we have a politician from the sovereign right who has managed to come to terms with the EU while developing a series of moves, particularly towards the Maghreb: signing a gas contract with Algeria, supporting Tunisia for an IMF loan, insisting on the issue of migration in the Mediterranean. This is something new that we need to pay attention to, especially if we look at the establishment of sovereign parties in Europe (Finland) or their electoral success (Spain). Does Italy herald a lasting trend?

JOCVP

LV219 (free): An acceptable programming law, in the end | Strategic illusion | Lorgnette : BRICS and NBD

Posted on 8 June 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 7 June 2023

An acceptable Programming law, in the end

Hastily decided and prepared, preceded by a mediocre Strategic Review, the Military Planning Law is nevertheless ambitious, although it is still a catch-up law. The €413 billion will enable us to continue to increase the density of our armed forces without falling into the trap of high intensity, which would be the ultimate goal of any strategy. Measured and balanced, it maintains a prudent coherence.

To read the article, click here

Strategic illusion

Any inherited power creates a bubble of illusion into which only its friends and allies, or those it considers to be such, can enter. There is no room for conflict, which leads to the denial of the other as a potential opponent and to the watering down of the vocabulary. The common good no longer exists because only one voice is allowed, and neither does strategy, which is designed to defend it. Is the strategist an endangered species?

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: RBICS and NBD

The recent meeting of BRICS foreign ministers in Cape Town can be read in different ways. The Western media focused on whether V. Putin would be granted diplomatic immunity for this summer’s summit, given that he is the subject of an ICC arrest warrant. Officially, the BRICS have made no secret of their annoyance at the way international society currently operates, and especially at the priority given to the war in Ukraine, while “the plight of the poor is forgotten“.

However, that was not the most important issue: the ministers discussed above all the introduction of a common currency “including how it could protect other member countries from the repercussions of sanctions such as those imposed on Russia” (link). To achieve this, the BRICS will use the New Development Bank (NBD), which will be able to grant loans in local currency. This is clearly a sign of defiance towards the United States and the dollar. Finally, Saudi Arabia was invited to the summit, and some twenty countries want to join the circle. A political convergence is in the process of being built: this is new (see dossier n°9).

JOCVP