La Vigie Nr 107 (19 DEC 2018) | 2018 : Changing world | 18 month of French foreign policy | Lorgnette : Merry Christmas

Posted on by A M

Lettre de La Vigie (19 DEC 2018).


2018 :  Changing world

In 2018 we have entered a new strategic era, that of general deregulation. In an intense and disordered strategic flow, the conflictuality of the planet has evolved, the modalities of the exercise of power have been affirmed and diversified, laborious transitions and arbitrations have begun. But still no stable state on the horizon.

France : 18 month of foreign policy

President E. Macron had put two words on his foreign policy agenda: Europe and pragmatism. In the realm of pragmatism, there is a welcome discretion in the Middle East, the lack of purpose in the South, the unconvincing promotion of a major Asian strategy, a misguided American policy. For Europe, despite high ambitions based on old software, the results are very disappointing. The former probably explains the latter.

Lorgnette : Merry Christmas

Click here to access the French website and purchase the articles

JDOK

La Vigie Nr 106 (5 DEC 2018) : French-Russian parallel | Sensitive migrations | Lorgnette : Gilets (Free reading)

Posted on by A M

La Vigie Nr 106 (5 DEC 2018) (free reading).

French-Russian parallel: here is a  analysis that examines the paradox of Franco-Russian relations, ancient relations between two countries comparable in their temperament and which have experienced a parallel history, trusting relations and the cold war opposed. With today’s Russia France maintains a critical and demanding dialogue that will lead to a European revival from the Atlantic to the Urals.

Sensitive migrations : Some believe that the migration crisis is a peak now behind us. It ignores the persistence of the economic motive for these migrations; it omits the development of a demographic gradient between the two shores of the Mediterranean, between a Europe at circa 600 Mh in 2050 and an Africa that will increase to 2.5 Mh. The security approach is now the only one proposed, without thinking about the renewal of an encalminated development policy.

Lorgnette : About “gilets“.

To read Nr 106, click here to reach the French version.

JDOK

La Vigie Nr 105 : British isolate | Finishing wars | Lorgnette : Cyberpeace

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La Vigie Nr 105, 21 NOV 2018

To read the French version, click here.

British isolate

Maybe the Brexit will take place. First of all, it shows a British representation of the common destiny, ultimately different from Churchill’s usual preference for the open sea. There is a British exceptionalism and above all a pride of English history in the 20th century that largely explains the Brexit decision. It should be noted that this decision raises complicated regional issues (Scotland, Northern Ireland) but that London should find ways to forge fluid alliances, perhaps better suited to the 21st century. The departure of the United Kingdom does not open the door to important developments in terms of European defence and Paris will have an interest in maintaining the “cordial agreement” that succeeded a century ago in bringing the two old nations together.

Finishing wars

Here is a review of some of the recent wars waged by France, whose conclusions have left a deep mark on it or have ended badly for not having been able to establish real lasting peace: the two world wars, the Algerian war, the Cold war, Mali.

Lorgnette : Cyberpeace

 

JDOK

La Vigie Nr 103 (24 OCT 2018) : Unstable Germany – Contested Deterrence – Lorgnette : Civilians that have been armed

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Unstable Germany

Contrary to popular belief, Germany is currently in a state of profound instability. It is obviously political, but also economic, social and strategic. As a result, it follows now more than ever its sole geopolitical interests, both in the European area and in the global arena. It therefore remains very suspicious of improbable European advances that it does not consider to be the solution to its problems. France must understand the return of this German question before committing itself to a flamboyant strategy that does not meet the expectations of its partner.

Contested Deterrence

Nuclear deterrence has contributed to the strategic regulation of global tensions during the Cold War and beyond. But today it is less effective and more and more often contested, diverted or even replaced by other conflicting modes that progressively invalidate its relevance. Inventory of these disputes.

Lorgnette : Civilians that have been armed

JDOK

To read it, click here to get the French issue.

La Vigie Nr 102 (10 OCT 2018) : Universal service takes it time – Uzbekistan and the Great game –

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The Universal national service (UNS) takes its time

The UNS takes its time. The development of the SNU is laborious, it is that the stake is of importance since it aims at a resocialization of France to reinforce the national cohesion. To achieve this essential objective, which must take its place in the training of young people, it is necessary to develop an entire system based on a broad preparation process leading to a call for civic responsibility by the civilian majority. Developing and implementing it will take time.

Uzbekistan and the great game

Central Asia is undergoing rapid changes, marked in particular by the ongoing change in Uzbekistan. By reconciling with Tajikistan, organizing a regional forum, proposing a common approach on Afghanistan in the face of the emergence of Islamic state affiliates, Tashkent shows an interesting dynamism. But undoubtedly, even if political control remains strong, Uzbekistan is seeking to revive its economy and above all to take advantage of the Chinese project of new silk routes: for Tashkent, this means reconnecting with a glorious past that has ensured the region’s prosperity for over a millennium.

Lorgnette’s view : Reflux

To read Nr 102, click here and subscribe.

La Vigie Nr 101, (26 SEP 2018) : The return of military services – Strategic genetic coding – Lorgnette’s view: CHOD’s strategic vision

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La Vigie, Nr 101, 26 Sept 2018

The return of military services

The universal national service (SNU) which is established in France will have very little military character: military service is often considered obsolete. However, several countries are in the process of resettling it, in Europe and Africa. The reasons are diverse: strategic, military, social or political, often with a mixture of all these reasons. Is this movement a mere coincidence or does it reflect something more significant? What is its strategic significance? Can we draw ideas for the French SNU, for example, the initiation of a cybersecurity module for all the young people who will be passing through it?

Strategic genetic coding 

European countries with their business cards marked by strong national strategic experiences are struggling to find themselves in a European project that tends to converge with a globalization that is drying up. This is because the people of the old world have their own strategic code that states can not free themselves from and that the economic genetics of the EU can hardly take into account either. Elsewhere, however, American, Russian, Chinese or Turkish power affirmations are shaking up the rules of the game of power. France does not find it easily.

 

Lorgnette’s view: CHOD’s strategic vision

To read the full issue (6 pages), clic here.

JD & OK

La Vigie Nr 100 (12 SEP 2018) : A vicious strategic circle – The end of atlanticism – Lorgnette : conference of ambassadors – Fall readings

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La Vigie n° 99, a strategic letter by Jean Dufourcq et Olivier Kempf

A vicious strategic circle

Disqualifying the classic war has facilitated strategic terrorism; by declassifying nations and states, the governance of the world has been delegated to transversal forces. These two vicious circles by combining creates a general confusion against which we must fight, particularly in France by a large strategy articulated on the return to civil peace in the interior and a new ambition of regional neighborhood abroad. Such is the thesis of this issue number 100.

The end of atlanticism

We must note the end of Atlanticism, visible as well at the last summit of the G7 as at that of NATO. This project, born during the Second World War, closer to what some call “the West”, brings together both banks of the Atlantic on an economic, military and moral domination. Now, these three factors disappear simultaneously, and D. Trump is more of a revelator than a trigger for this movement that comes from far away. The decline seems irreversible, but many conservatives believe they can thwart it rather than build new strategic forms.

Lorgnette : conference of ambassadors

Fall readings

JDOK

To read full articles,  buy the issue on line !

Photo crédit :  European External Action Service - EEAS on Visualhunt.com / CC BY-NC-ND

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La Vigie n° 99 (1st AUG 2018) : Mali, in-between – Russia reinvests Egypt – Lorgnette : Deadlines planet

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La Vigie n° 99, a strategic letter by Jean Dufourcq et Olivier Kempf

Mali, in-between

Seen from France, Mali first poses a security question. Unfortunately, this perception prevents more complex geographical and political realities than the “fight against terrorism”, an awkward slogan that justifies our action. Because the Malian question (and beyond, regional, in the Sahara as in the Sahel which obey to different logics) is first that of the state organization. However, there are some optimistic factors that need to be strengthened so that military success “en premier” is pursued by a political and economic action “en second”.

Russia reinvests Egypt

Russia, which is prospecting for former Soviet positions, is gradually re-establishing itself along the great maritime artery that connects the North Sea with the Indian Ocean. In doing so, she finds in President Sissi’s Egypt a central partner sensitive to her leadership and her strategic, security and economic arguments. Her ability to mediate and her regional ability make her the player in the strategic reconstruction of the Levant, an interlocutor with whom France must now compose to find a place in the game.

Lorgnette : Deadlines planet

To read full articles,  buy the issue on line !

Photo crédit : Watsons Wanderings on Visualhunt / CC BY-NC

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La Vigie nr 98 bis (18 JUL 2018) : Mixed war | Alliance : vacancy or emptyness ? | from Lorgnette : foot and strategy

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Lettre La Vigie n°98 bis – 18 July 2018

Mixed war

War is no longer effective! it remains, however, but the representation that we have deceives us, from Napoleon to the Hairy and the parade of July 14 to Operations in Africa. We seek to respond to an outdated form of war, knowing that it has taken many other forms (economic, cyber, monetary, media …): as many theaters of operation where take place the real strategies of power. To fail to understand this is necessarily to mislead the commitment of the combat forces that remains necessary, but on the condition of being subordinated to a complete strategy.

Alliance: vacancy or emptiness?

An EU full of false pretenses, a helpless Alliance, a possible Russo-American arrangement on the European back, the strategic failure is confirmed. France should seize it to promote a median position placing Europe to the Urals in a stable equilibrium between America and China, the two commercial competitors who decided to go to a long war. Lorgnette : Foot and strategy JDOK

La Vigie Nr 98 (4 July 2018) : Building the balance of power – Farewell old Europe – From lorgnette :Deraa and realism

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Letter n° 97,  La Vigie, 20th  June 2018 (to read this issue in French, clic here)

Building the balance of power

Conflictuality evolves and breaks down into various modes of friction: games of go, chess games, commercial negotiations. To be respected requires more than ever a combination of scattered actions by multiple actors in various fields of action. For France, an obligation of lucidity, coherence, strategic planning and internal exemplarity to try to weigh on the march of the world.

Farewell old Europe

Europe is more than the EU, it is a distinct geographical reality characterized by its unity and its differences. The EU was built to solve a European civil war, according to an ambiguous division of power between an unpopular technocracy and states retaining the reality of the decisions: this mechanism was seized, first with the crisis of 2008 then that of the migrants . As for NATO, it falters because of D. Trump who doubts its usefulness. Initiatives are flourishing in both western and eastern Europe. The institutional mechanism built after the Second World War is running out of steam and we are only beginning to discern what will succeed it.

Seen from lorgnette :Deraa and realism

JDOK

La Vigie n° 97 (20 June 2018) : Kim-Trump : Two winners ? – Governance : towards syncretism – Seen from la Lorgnette : Aquarius

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Letter n° 97,  La Vigie, 20th  June 2018 (to read this issue in French, clic here)

Kim-Trump : Two winners ?

The recent Singapore summit between Presidents Kim and Trump resulted in a rather flat and uncompromising statement: yet both protagonists were very satisfied. However, this is not a “win-win” agreement, since basically everyone thinks they have deceived each other. In fact, beyond the nuclear issue (yet nothing less than anodyne), the most interesting lies in the ulterior motives of the two leaders. They did not say a word and no commentator has deciphered their real calculations. They are much more subtle than we think.

Governance : towards syncretism

To save the idea of a minimal governance of the planet, we will have to introduce a dose of diversity in the principles and values that administer it, especially at the regional level because the universal always has a local color. To preserve the gains of the old multilateral structures that are going down (UN, NATO, EU), it will be necessary to focus on identifying the factors of peace and development that they carry. To contribute, France must be out of alignment.

La Lorgnette : Aquarius

 

JDOK

The withdrawal of the United States from the Vienna Agreement: an injustice for Iranians

Posted on by A M

Following our number 95 (read here for free), we are pleased to welcome Master Ardavan Amir-Aslani who is a business lawyer in Paris. He has published several books on Iran and the Middle East, the last of which, From Persia to Iran, 2500 years of history (L’Archipel, 2018).

On the 8th May, the United States withdrew from the Iranian nuclear agreement signed in Vienna on the 14th July 2015. This decision brought about the re-establishment of sanctions which had been lifted, as well as the implementation of new sanctions on multinationals who want to invest in Iran.

Source

This decision has been seen as an injustice in Tehran, especially when considering Iran’s full compliance with the provisions of the nuclear agreement, which was officially confirmed by the AIEA in eleven successive reports, the last of which intervened on the 9th of May by Yukiya Amano, President of the IAEA. Continue reading “The withdrawal of the United States from the Vienna Agreement: an injustice for Iranians” →