La Vigie nr 98 bis (18 JUL 2018) : Mixed war | Alliance : vacancy or emptyness ? | from Lorgnette : foot and strategy

Posted on by A M

Lettre La Vigie n°98 bis – 18 July 2018

Mixed war

War is no longer effective! it remains, however, but the representation that we have deceives us, from Napoleon to the Hairy and the parade of July 14 to Operations in Africa. We seek to respond to an outdated form of war, knowing that it has taken many other forms (economic, cyber, monetary, media …): as many theaters of operation where take place the real strategies of power. To fail to understand this is necessarily to mislead the commitment of the combat forces that remains necessary, but on the condition of being subordinated to a complete strategy.

Alliance: vacancy or emptiness?

An EU full of false pretenses, a helpless Alliance, a possible Russo-American arrangement on the European back, the strategic failure is confirmed. France should seize it to promote a median position placing Europe to the Urals in a stable equilibrium between America and China, the two commercial competitors who decided to go to a long war. Lorgnette : Foot and strategy JDOK

La Vigie Nr 98 (4 July 2018) : Building the balance of power – Farewell old Europe – From lorgnette :Deraa and realism

Posted on by A M

Letter n° 97,  La Vigie, 20th  June 2018 (to read this issue in French, clic here)

Building the balance of power

Conflictuality evolves and breaks down into various modes of friction: games of go, chess games, commercial negotiations. To be respected requires more than ever a combination of scattered actions by multiple actors in various fields of action. For France, an obligation of lucidity, coherence, strategic planning and internal exemplarity to try to weigh on the march of the world.

Farewell old Europe

Europe is more than the EU, it is a distinct geographical reality characterized by its unity and its differences. The EU was built to solve a European civil war, according to an ambiguous division of power between an unpopular technocracy and states retaining the reality of the decisions: this mechanism was seized, first with the crisis of 2008 then that of the migrants . As for NATO, it falters because of D. Trump who doubts its usefulness. Initiatives are flourishing in both western and eastern Europe. The institutional mechanism built after the Second World War is running out of steam and we are only beginning to discern what will succeed it.

Seen from lorgnette :Deraa and realism

JDOK

La Vigie n° 97 (20 June 2018) : Kim-Trump : Two winners ? – Governance : towards syncretism – Seen from la Lorgnette : Aquarius

Posted on by A M

Letter n° 97,  La Vigie, 20th  June 2018 (to read this issue in French, clic here)

Kim-Trump : Two winners ?

The recent Singapore summit between Presidents Kim and Trump resulted in a rather flat and uncompromising statement: yet both protagonists were very satisfied. However, this is not a “win-win” agreement, since basically everyone thinks they have deceived each other. In fact, beyond the nuclear issue (yet nothing less than anodyne), the most interesting lies in the ulterior motives of the two leaders. They did not say a word and no commentator has deciphered their real calculations. They are much more subtle than we think.

Governance : towards syncretism

To save the idea of a minimal governance of the planet, we will have to introduce a dose of diversity in the principles and values that administer it, especially at the regional level because the universal always has a local color. To preserve the gains of the old multilateral structures that are going down (UN, NATO, EU), it will be necessary to focus on identifying the factors of peace and development that they carry. To contribute, France must be out of alignment.

La Lorgnette : Aquarius

 

JDOK

The withdrawal of the United States from the Vienna Agreement: an injustice for Iranians

Posted on by A M

Following our number 95 (read here for free), we are pleased to welcome Master Ardavan Amir-Aslani who is a business lawyer in Paris. He has published several books on Iran and the Middle East, the last of which, From Persia to Iran, 2500 years of history (L’Archipel, 2018).

On the 8th May, the United States withdrew from the Iranian nuclear agreement signed in Vienna on the 14th July 2015. This decision brought about the re-establishment of sanctions which had been lifted, as well as the implementation of new sanctions on multinationals who want to invest in Iran.

Source

This decision has been seen as an injustice in Tehran, especially when considering Iran’s full compliance with the provisions of the nuclear agreement, which was officially confirmed by the AIEA in eleven successive reports, the last of which intervened on the 9th of May by Yukiya Amano, President of the IAEA. Continue reading “The withdrawal of the United States from the Vienna Agreement: an injustice for Iranians” →

La Vigie n° 96 – 6 June 2018 : The revenge of the depth – Italian divorce – Lorgnette : Master Hassner

Posted on by A M

 

Letter n° 96,  La Vigie, 6th  June 2018 (to read this issue in French, clic here)



 

The revenge of the depths

In crises, the bottom of things is shown. So today the fragile world governance is affected by the return of the collective identities and deep-seated forces of peoples who are taking over illegitimate states, confiscated democracies or systems that neglect their interests or their real weight. So it goes in Europe, the United States, Russia and China. What lessons for France?

 

Italian divorce

The Italian elections are not a populist threat, as some people like to reduce them. They are a democratic alternation that breaks with seven years of “technical” governments, inspired by the rules of the EU, and have not given satisfactory results, either economically or on the issue of migrants . By dint of claiming that there is no other policy, to say that politics is useless in the face of economic and technocratic reason, democracy is weakened. People have their say, whether we like it or not.

 

 

Lorgnette :  Le Maître Hassner

JDOK

Pour lire les articles en entier, connectez-vous ou achetez le numéro dans la boutique!

Attention, vous devez avoir le logiciel Acrobat Reader installé sur votre poste pour lire notre lettre (format .pdf)photo

credit photo : Ti Yab on Visualhunt.com / CC BY

La Vigie n° 95 (free) – 23 May 2018 : Trump, Iran, and impotent Europe – An impossible regulation – Lorgnette : Iraqi populism

Posted on by A M

Lettre n° 95,  La Vigie 23 May 2018

 

Photo credit: IAEA Imagebank on VisualHunt.com / CC BY-NC-ND

 

Trump, Iran, and impotent Europe

Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal only surprised the gullible. It confirms an electoral promise and implements its policy of questioning the state of the world. Of course, it has consequences in the Middle East and on the nuclear order. Above all, it has very deep economic effects that affect Europeans first and foremost. These are in the hour of truth, realizing that the rogue state is not the one they believed. Will they react firmly or will they demonstrate, once again, their helplessness?

 

An impossible regulation

Control and regulate the strategic nuclear system has been a long process slow to establish itself in the bipolar world of the cold war. Deregulation began at the end of this one with multipolarity, tolerances, exceptions and manipulations. It is growing with the US withdrawal of the 2015′ Iranian agreement that threatens the exit of the Korean stalemate, ignores the need for nuclear power, sends countries to reassure towards a creeping military nuclear proliferation. Nuclear disarmament is not for tomorrow.

Lorgnette :  Iraqi populism

JDOK

Photo credit: IAEA Imagebank on Visualhunt / CC BY-SA

To read the full article,  buy the issue in the shop on line

Attention, you need Acrobat Reader  (.pdf)

La Vigie n° 94 – 9 May 2018 : Regionalisms in Spain – The Vietnamese track – The Libanese democratic challenge

Posted on by A M

Letter n° 94 – 9th May 2018

Regionalisms in Spain

The self-dissolution of ETA in the Spanish Basque Country does not only mean the end of an armed struggle, but above all it marks the end of an outdated ideology: that of revolutionary independence. It reveals the internal geopolitical balance of Spain, a country that has little known a strong state and which, in favor of democracy in 1975, invented an original way of decentralization that is not a federation. This helps to understand the current tension between Madrid and Catalonia. This does not mean that regional issues are over, in Spain as in Europe, because they are also responses to the furious globalization.

The Vietnamese track

Vietnam suffers the presence of a cumbersome neighbor which he must accomodate since ages. While imitating his politico-economic model, he must be careful not to fall into his orbit. To do this, it deploys a subtle strategy of the right balance and seeks through multiple partnerships the strategic depth it lacks. The strategy of balance that it deploys must enable it to preserve the centrality of the party, to satisfy an expected development and to contain a nationalist public opinion.

Lorgnette : The Libanese democratic challenge

JDOK

To read the full article,  buy the issue in the shop

Crédit photo :  Ti Yab on Visualhunt.com / CC BY

Attention, you need le logiciel Acrobat Reader  (.pdf)

La Vigie n° 93 – 10 avril 2018 : Bomb. Intimidate – Demonstration of weakness – Lorgnette : Becoming tough

Posted on by A M

Letter n° 93,  25  Avril 2018

L’USS Ross tire un missile d’attaque terrestre tomahawk le 7 avril 2017.

Bomb. Intimidate

What factors prevailed in the French intervention decision against Syrian sites? How can one read the precipitation of the missile strike? Why did one want it limited and without military effect? What indications do these choices give to the political goals pursued? Is military intimidation still possible today? So many legitimate questions for the analyst.

Demonstration of weakness

In addition to strategic analysis, strikes in Syria require geopolitical decoding. The United States, France and the United Kingdom (FRUKUS) basically had two objectives: to restore their credibility, and to regain a position allowing them to influence future negotiations behind the scenes. This explains the disproportion between the media buzz and the weak demonstration of the strikes. Everything was designed to pretend and aim for goals other than those that were so loudly displayed.

 

Lorgnette :  Becoming tough

JDOK

 

To read the full article,  buy the issue in the shop

Crédit photo :  : Official U.S. Navy Imagery on Visualhunt.com / CC BY

Attention, you need le logiciel Acrobat Reader  (.pdf)

 

 

 

n° 92 (10 April 2018) : Nuclear Patchwork – Time is covering – Homicides in Brasil

Posted on by A M

La Vigie, n° 92 :

Nuclear patchwork

The Cold War was based on a very deep ideological rift between two well-identified camps. This opposition was a perfect match for the construction of a nuclear deterrence based on the strategic dialectic between two actors. Today, the complexity has settled: not only are there several theaters of nuclear opposition, but these still bring together more than two actors and finally, there is now a general connection of these local theatres, without a super actor to polarize the whole. Therefore, a new strategic grammar seems necessary to think about this nuclear patchwork.

Time is covering

The political guaranty and the moral advantage that the countries of freedom derived from their virtuous behavior in the service of global governance have eroded with the wave of globalization whose economic stakes have perverted democracies. In the absence of any benevolent leadership and possible internatioanl regulation, sanctions are resorted to and dangerous games of intimidation are played. It’s a collective regression. Other political and strategic models could then emerge, devoting effective alternative actors. Weather is getting worse.

Lorgnette : Homicides in Brasil

Clic here to buy the issue (5 €)

JDOK

 

In Africa violent non-state actors give the illusion of sovereignty

Posted on by A M

Thomas Flichy de La Neuville , Professor in Saint-Cyr’s military academy – Libya, Central African Republic, Mali.

In a regional context marked by the frailty of the State, little, determined and often violent groups currently drive political evolutions in Africa. These actors are sometimes cemented by ethnic or religious solidarities. Common interests more often gather them. They are thus in constant evolution, in particular as far as their system of alliance is concerned. The French army has been confronted to these actors on three theatres of operations: in Libya,  Central Africa and Mali. The main lesson, which can be drawn in 2017, is that these violent non-state actors – which prosper on the smoking ruins of the state – mimic sovereignty. In Libya, the violent non-state actors are entirely dependent from foreign powers (I). In the Central African Republic, where UN forces are powerless, some of them intend to create new states (II). In Mali, they have decided to seize the countryside, fighting desperately against the territorial chieftaincy (III).

Résultat d’images pour non state actors africa

Source Continue reading “In Africa violent non-state actors give the illusion of sovereignty” →

n° 91 – 28 mars 2018 : Seen from Sirius – Mayotte, island of Comoros – A hero

Posted on by A M

Abonné? Téléchargez directement la lettre en cliquant sur ce lien!

Lettre n° 91, La Vigie du  28 mars 2018

Seen from Sirius

A Cold War climate is spreading in Europe and forces us to once again take the height to make an overview seen from Sirius. We can only see the feverishness of a Eurotlanic community blinded by a media, ecological and cultural overexposure that frightens our public opinion. Balances are changing and the old governance is getting out of date because of Russia and China, who are mainly challenging it, and are starting to develop a credible alternative for stability. We lose our sang-froid. It’s a great opportunity for France to start moving to the center of the game

Mayotte, island of Comoros

The island of Mayotte returns to the top of the news. The situation of this new department, poor and victim of illegal immigration, shows that the 2009 departmentalization did not produce the expected benefits. The case of Mayotte is not simply an internal matter of management of an overseas collectivity, it is also a problem of foreign policy and relations with the Comoros. Beyond this, it should encourage reflection on the French policy of DOM-COM, source of a gigantic maritime territory but also a mirror of all the difficulties of the current globalization.

RIP

Source

Lorgnette :   A hero (LTC Beltrame) Un héros

JDOK

Pour lire les articles en entier, connectez-vous ou achetez le numéro dans la boutique!

Photo crédit : dalbera on VisualHunt / CC BY

 

N° 90 : A cracking EU – A mixed military programmation – Corean detente

Posted on by A M

La Vigie n° 90 : 14 March 2018

A cracking EU

Despite a bounce last year with the French and German elections, the European Union seems to present new cracks that worsen. Notwithstanding the Selmayr affair, let us note that the old split between Old Europe and New Europe no longer seems to be operative, as the recent Italian elections have illustrated. The recovery sought by France faces many old and identified obstacles and it is not sure that Paris and Berlin are as aligned as the dream of France’s European project.

A mixed military programmation

What to think of this LPM straddling two quinquennates? If it dangerously reinstates the extra cost of OPEX in the military budget, it also focuses on the repair of major equipment deficiencies, increases the budget gradually and prepares the renovation of strategic forces. If it appears very imprudent in some respects, it is also realistic on the condition that one exercises the strategic restraint during the legislature.

 

La lorgnette : Corean detente

JDOK

To access the French Issue, please click here