LV 260 : After the Paris Naval Conference | Europe knocked out | Lorgnette : Clouded intelligence

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Letter from La Vigie, 19 February 2025

After the Paris Naval Conference

The Paris Naval Conference 2025, whose theme was the relationship between the naval and the maritime, provided an opportunity to explore the links between state navies and private players in the blue economy. In this particular context, we need to consider the sometimes contradictory dynamics that underpin the maritime world, with at the heart of these the question of the return of security as a parameter of international trade. This is a cost that companies need to reintegrate.

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Europe knocked out

Last week’s US statements have knocked Europe out. They are a reminder of what America has been saying for 25 years, ignored by Europe, and mark the end of a double illusion on this side of the Atlantic: that of the transatlantic link and that of a globalised and regulated order.

The strategic options that remain are heartbreaking.

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Lorgnette: Clouded Intelligence

The recent AI summit held in Paris was the occasion for a series of statements, each more famous than the last: here, the prowess of new software (Chinese Deep Seek, French Mistral) that is far more economical than the Americans in terms of computing power; there, investments to the tune of €109 billion when, the previous week, Trump had announced $500 billion. In both cases, the aim is to build ‘data farms’.

But despite the headlines about artificial intelligence that have been repeated over and over again for the past ten years, the key issue is data. To process it, you first need to gather it together, and the question of where it is stored is becoming crucial: the physical layer provides sovereignty where immateriality used to reign. Localising data at home means avoiding the continental migration of data made possible by the cloud. With D. Trump reaffirming his desire to regain control, in particular by bypassing the confidentiality agreements signed with the EU, localising data becomes the means of guaranteeing our sovereignty in this new field of economic and technological warfare.

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LV 259: Rethinking le pré carré | Trump upsets everything | Lorgnette : Predation in Goma

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Rethinking the pré carré

The notion of the ‘pré carré’, which smacks of the 17th century and reminds us of Vauban fortresses, is back! The expansionist ambitions of the new President of the United States have put it back in the spotlight. If the American square is set to grow, then others will follow suit. But what about France? Does it include its overseas territories? Faced with a threat from an ally, we urgently need to get back to strategic work!

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Trump upsets everything

The Trump presidency marks a further stage in the political crisis that has gripped the United States for the last ten years. But the new president has a vision and a programme. He is imposing a new Monroe Doctrine centred on an enlarged America and setting up a new predatory imperialism, hard on allies and soft on adversaries. The allies will have to relearn the grammar of the balance of power with this frenemy.

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Lorgnette: predation in Goma

In Africa, wars come and go, amid general indifference. In addition to the civil war in Sudan, there are some striking developments in eastern DR Congo: the M23 movement, supported and equipped by neighbouring Rwanda, has taken the large city of Goma (800,000 people) in the east of the DRC, despite the Congolese army, armed militias and the UN force MONUSCO.

Eastern DR Congo experienced two ‘Congo wars’ in the 1990s. The protagonists in the current crisis are the same: in addition to Kinshasa, the neighbouring countries (Rwanda and Uganda) are pushing their pawns to take control of the territory.

Two things seem to have changed: firstly, the desire to annex Rwanda is barely concealed and is in line with the predatory movements we are seeing around the world (Crimea, Donbass, Nagorno-Karabakh, Trump’s claims). Secondly, the indulgence enjoyed by P. Kagamé, the Rwandan leader, is reaching its limits: even Great Britain is calling for a reconsideration of its relations with the controversial leader.

Has he gone too far? That would be a first.

JOVPN

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LV 251 : What if Trump wins ? | Where has Turkey gone ? | Lorgnette : Identifying yourself

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 16 OCT 2024

What if Trump wins ?

The presidential campaign is perfectly undecided because the arrival of K. Harris has rebalanced the poll. With only three weeks to go before the election, no one can seriously predict who will win. We must also look at the parliamentary elections, which will take place on the same day and will give – or not – some room for manoeuvre to the winner. Similarly, what reaction will the losing camp have? So many uncertainties for a crucial election.

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Whzere has Turkey gone ?

Turkey, which may have emerged as one of the major players in the war in Ukraine in 2022, has gradually seen its international position weaken. Several factors may explain this relative diplomatic weakness in 2024: an overly opportunistic multi-alignment on Ukrainian affairs, a maximalist position on the Middle East that provoked Washington’s mistrust and, above all, a nagging economic crisis that forced Ankara to adopt austerity measures.

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Lorgnette: Identifying yourself

Hard wars have been returning for three years now. In 2023, there were nine: Burma, Gaza, Nigeria, DRC, Sahel, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine and Yemen. In 2024, Ethiopia is likely to join this fateful procession once again. While French and European public opinion may be interested in Ukraine or the Middle East, it is completely unaware of Sudan or Burma. Why this difference?

Because in the first cases there is a phenomenon of identification, not in the others. In some ways, Ukrainians or Israelis (or Palestinians) are seen as others of ourselves, as well as being geographically close. War, often seen as the violent matrix of national identities, puts our own identity under strain. It is because we are worried internally that we project ourselves onto what is happening externally.

The victim mechanism adds to this phenomenon. We are always on the side of the victim. But just as the victim is easy to identify in the case of Ukraine, so there is competition for victims in the Middle East, between the victims of 7 October and the victims of Tsahal. The subject is all the more thorny because France has the largest Jewish population and the largest Arab-Muslim population in Europe.

JOVPN

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LV 229: The United States and the new world | Strategic issues for the seabed | Lorgnette: Spanish turmoil

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 15 November 2023

 

The United States and the new world

Faced with the upheavals underway, America is redefining its priorities. Despite its domestic political difficulties, and backed by a buoyant economy, it is returning to the Middle East, closing the Ukrainian question and renewing its ties with China. This pragmatism should come as no surprise, but we need to draw the consequences.

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Strategic issues for the seabed

The seabed, whose relatively long-standing exploitation has been facilitated by the implementation of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, is becoming a major strategic territory. With the growth in economic activity and the energy and digital transitions underway, they are home to critical infrastructures that need to be able to monitor them and intervene if necessary.

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Lorgnette: Spanish turmoil

Spanish politics never ceases to surprise us. After a party of vacuums (LV 180), the Catalan question is back (LV 94). Last May, the Left in power (LV 117) suffered a debacle in the local elections. P. Sánchez decided to dissolve the assembly and won his gamble in the July elections, where his party held its own. But to stay in power, he needed to secure a majority, which he could only find among the independentists, particularly the Catalans. This agreement was reached on 9 November in exchange for a highly controversial amnesty law, which allows Catalan leader C. Puigdemont, who has been in exile (on the run) in Brussels since 2017, to return to the country. In 2017, the country experienced one of the worst political crises in its modern history (LV 80).

However, Mr Sánchez did not come out on top, and if he is able to reach this agreement, it is because the right-wing leader, A. Feijóo, was unable to build a coalition. So here we have the PSOE, a weakened party, which only manages to find a coalition in a minority situation by reviving the question of independence.

Unsurprisingly, demonstrations organised by the right have multiplied since the announcement of the agreement. Spain is set for another troubled period.

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JOVPN

LV 214: The Second 21st Century: An Inventory Essay | The end of the American dream | Lorgnette: street violence

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Letter from La Vige, dated 29 March 2023

The Second 21st Century: An Inventory Essay

Here is a first attempt at an inventory of the global governance that prevails after the change of strategic era caused by the Russian aggression in Ukraine. What has disappeared, what remains, what is emerging, what we do not know, the consequences for France … Uncertainties and vigilance

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The end of the American dream

America has lost its soft power and now only shows its hard power. Disinterested in the world’s margins, no longer able to influence the whole planet, it is pulling its European ally into its anti-China obsession, without seeing that the rest of the world is organising itself without it.

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Lorgnette: street violence

The successive demonstrations in France show a level of violence that is increasing. The precedents of the Notre-Dame des Landes ZAD and the Yellow Vests have indeed convinced many radicals that violence can change the course of things these days. The governmental retreats of the past authorise current audacities, which are all the more vivid because political life is sluggish. Whatever the legality of the political representations given by the institutions, the authorities have lost their majesty and therefore the auctoritas that accompanied them, and hence their legitimacy. But the disaffection with political power may go back further, when the 2005 referendum was disavowed two years later by a reform made on the sly.

Let us note that the democratic crisis is general, in Europe (Great Britain, Germany) or elsewhere (huge demonstrations in Israel). Elections do not guarantee democracy. Unfortunately, demonstrations rarely prevail, see the recent examples of Iran (LV 202), Sri Lanka (LV 190) or Algeria (file 11).

Political disorder leads to disorder in the streets. Politics needs to be refounded.

JOCVP

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LV 211 : South Korea: the nuclear temptation | Europe’s Ukrainian spiral | Lorgnette : balloon hunting

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Letetr from La Vigie dated 15 FEB 2023

South Korea: the nuclear temptation

South Korea is the tenth largest economy in the world but strategically it is heavily dependent on the United States. However, if Europe is interested in Ukraine and Washington is interested in China, the Korean question is becoming more sensitive, with 90 missile tests carried out by Pyongyang. So much so that Seoul is talking very strongly about nuclear capabilities again.

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Europe’s Ukrainian spiral

One year after the Russian aggression in Ukraine, this article answers the following three questions: How did it come to this? How will it finish? How can we avoid a repeat? It advocates an immediate Russian-Ukrainian strategic pat.

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Lorgnette: balloon hunting

The earthquake in Turkey and Syria has claimed 40,000 lives, but the death toll is expected to double or even triple. The disaster took place in the area bordering the two countries, where the last Syrian opponents, many of them jihadists, have taken refuge under Turkish control. International aid is arriving, but the observer senses a kind of embarrassment, both towards the devious Erdogan and towards the banished Assad. As a result, humanitarian emotion seems to be stifled.

Meanwhile, America is dealing with air balloons and sending its best jets to shoot them down, issuing flight bans, suggesting UFOs… The incredulous observer thinks he is dreaming in front of both amateurism and over-reaction. He has the impression that the American government is reacting like in Hollywood superhero movies, when Mars attacks and you have to do everything to defend yourself. The show is shown to the willing public and the message is simple: the alien is China, the alien to be wary of.

At the same time, articles are multiplying to predict that Ukraine will lose.

As if the media washer were saying: Let’s move on…

JOCVP

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La Vigie Nr 196 : NATO: Renaissance or mere respite? | The drone-cannon couple | Lorgnette: Supreme division

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Letter from La Vigie, 6 July 2022

NATO: Renaissance or mere respite?

The Atlantic Alliance summit held in Madrid at the end of June showed a renewed unity of the Allies after three difficult years. The war in Ukraine has simplified the common approach, which has resulted in a new concept, the accession of two new members and a strengthened defensive posture. However, structural differences remain and the proclaimed renaissance may be no more than a respite.

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The drone-cannon couple

The recent conflicts in the Caucasus and Ukraine have revealed the complementarity of the drone and the artillery gun. However, this tactical innovation, which is based on known and potentially cheap components, raises new questions. How are our armies preparing for these new threats? Is it still possible to extend the drone’s field of action? Is autonomous production of each component of this couple possible?

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Lorgnette: Supreme division

The recent decision of the US Supreme Court has already caused a lot of ink to flow. The Vigil will not comment on the legality of this court decision, let alone the substance of the problem.

On the other hand, it must be noted that it reinforces de facto the creeping division of the country. We in LV have long signalled the end of the ‘consensus on consensus’ in American politics. Until now, institutions have always triumphed over partisanship. However, it was a close call on 6 January 2020 when, unlike 6 February 1934 in France, the crowd entered Parliament.

Another institution with recognised legitimacy, the Supreme Court, is reviving a debate that shows no signs of abating. By referring the decision to the local constitutions, it justifies in advance the local decisions that will be taken on the outcome of the elections. All that is needed is for them to be close (all indications are that they will be) and the coup that almost took place will this time be legalised.

American disunity threatens and this should worry us, much more than all the strategic shifts of the moment, even if they are particularly numerous.

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JOCVP

Photo credit: NATO

La Vigie Nr 193 : Technologising armies | What is the outcome of the war? | Lorgnette: Taiwan’s defence

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Leter from La Vigie, dated 25th May 2022

Technologising armies

The technologisation of modern armies, which is supposed to give them a significant advantage over their enemies, is showing signs of running out of steam with the Ukraine campaign. Already threatened by the asymmetric response of improvised devices, these armies are also facing a strain on their basic components. Supplies and their delivery no longer seem to be secure in a conflict with global repercussions.

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What is the outcome of the war?

Traditionally, wars were concluded with peace treaties because the enemy was not demonised. Since the 20th century, the enemy is often portrayed as an evil that must be annihilated: it therefore seems difficult to deal with him. However, war most often requires an end to be reached, and this is achieved through negotiations: one must know how to end a war.

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Lorgnette: Taiwan’s defence

In response to a question about the US military commitment in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, US President J. Biden said on Monday: “Yes, that is what we are committed to”. This statement is a departure from the usual ambiguity: since the Taiwan Relation Act of 1979, Washington had always left uncertainty as to the nature of its support for Taipei but also its respect for the Chinese doctrine of “one China”.

Is this a new outing to which J. Biden has become accustomed, using words and expressions that are often undiplomatic? In any case, his administration was keen to correct the president’s remarks. Several interpretations are possible: there is a difference of opinion between the President and his administration, or following Ukraine the President wants to assure his allies of the solidity of his support or, even more subtle, to be ambiguous in the exit of ambiguity towards China.

One last hypothesis is not mentioned but is worrying: J. Biden is allowing himself to speak without consulting his entourage, a criticism that was long made of his predecessor. This would be worrying.

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JOCVP

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La Vigie Nr 179 : France in 2050 | The American question | Lorgnette : Forgotten Bosnia

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Letter from La Vigie dated November 10th 2021

France in 2050

The news is always quick to emphasise the crises of the moment and the seemingly insurmountable challenges: let’s reverse the point of view and consider what assets France has at its disposal to still be what it is in 2050. The picture is less bleak than is often assumed.

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The American question

Trumpism did not disappear after the last presidential election. Just as the Democrats refused to accept Trump’s victory five years ago, the Republicans refuse to accept Biden’s victory. He was badly elected and is struggling to implement his reforms and to unify the Democrats, divided between radicals and conservatives. A defeat in the next elections (mid-term, presidential 2024) is therefore highly likely. A second Trump presidency would deepen the fragmentation of the country.

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Lorgnette: Forgotten Bosnia

Who still remembers Bosnia-Herzegovina? This small country, born in 1995 from the break-up of the former Yugoslavia, has never found a political balance. This meeting between a “Muslim-Croat federation” and a “Republika Srpska” has never worked. It is under the supervision of the European Union, which is no longer interested in it. So we see the Serbian leader gradually acting in favour of separation (and eventually the reunion of the Serbian part with Serbia in Belgrade). The population is talking about a possible return to war.

However, this does not worry the international community, especially Europe, which is content with a black hole in the Balkans and has no prospects to offer. The Union is struggling to promote a negotiated solution between Kosovo and Serbia. It is not even certain that a secession of the Bosnian Serb part would be violent. In fact, some may think that this separation is a logical option and that 25 years later, with the help of fatigue, what was considered inadmissible at the time is admitted. But this would open the Pandora’s box of border rectifications in Europe. Which it does not need.

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JOCV

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La Vigie Nr 175 : 20 years after (9/11) | Land domain : what future ? | Lorgnette : war in Tigray

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Letter from La Vigie of 15 September 2021

Twenty years after (September 11)

Who remembers September 11? Far fewer people than one might think, even though it was the first event with immediate global resonance, a strategic victory for the aggressors. It marked a turning point for America, which is not as definitive as it is said to be; political Islam has emerged as central, though no one knows if it is really sustainable. Finally, September 11 marked the beginning of European disillusionment from which we have not emerged.

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Land domain: what future?

The French Army has not necessarily been in the spotlight lately. According to its own words, it is preparing for increasingly tough wars and its increase in power, particularly in terms of capabilities, is consistent with its new doctrine. However, given the dangerous nature of the world, we will have to find reliable allies.

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Lorgnette: War in Tigray

Since November 2020, war has been raging in northern Ethiopia. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for his reconciliation with Eritrea, has embarked on a policy of centralising this federal country. He quickly wanted to bring Tigray, the northern province that had played a major political role in past decades, to heel: it was the Tigrayans who had brought down the regime of Mengistu (the Black Stalin), and had led the country since 1991.

A minority (7% of the 110 million people), they had allied themselves with the Oromo ethnic group but had to leave power three years ago because their management was considered too biased. Their successor, who appeared to be a man of compromise, was even more so when he launched hostilities last year. However, after initial setbacks, the Tigrayans regained the advantage and repelled both the Eritreans who were attacking in the north and the Ethiopian army coming from the south. Since then, they have allied themselves with other ethnic groups and the federal model is in danger of breaking up, while massacres and exactions are on the increase.

The second most populous country in Africa is risking its survival.

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