La Vigie n° 96 – 6 June 2018 : The revenge of the depth – Italian divorce – Lorgnette : Master Hassner

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Letter n° 96,  La Vigie, 6th  June 2018 (to read this issue in French, clic here)



 

The revenge of the depths

In crises, the bottom of things is shown. So today the fragile world governance is affected by the return of the collective identities and deep-seated forces of peoples who are taking over illegitimate states, confiscated democracies or systems that neglect their interests or their real weight. So it goes in Europe, the United States, Russia and China. What lessons for France?

 

Italian divorce

The Italian elections are not a populist threat, as some people like to reduce them. They are a democratic alternation that breaks with seven years of “technical” governments, inspired by the rules of the EU, and have not given satisfactory results, either economically or on the issue of migrants . By dint of claiming that there is no other policy, to say that politics is useless in the face of economic and technocratic reason, democracy is weakened. People have their say, whether we like it or not.

 

 

Lorgnette :  Le Maître Hassner

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La Vigie n° 95 (free) – 23 May 2018 : Trump, Iran, and impotent Europe – An impossible regulation – Lorgnette : Iraqi populism

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Lettre n° 95,  La Vigie 23 May 2018

 

Photo credit: IAEA Imagebank on VisualHunt.com / CC BY-NC-ND

 

Trump, Iran, and impotent Europe

Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal only surprised the gullible. It confirms an electoral promise and implements its policy of questioning the state of the world. Of course, it has consequences in the Middle East and on the nuclear order. Above all, it has very deep economic effects that affect Europeans first and foremost. These are in the hour of truth, realizing that the rogue state is not the one they believed. Will they react firmly or will they demonstrate, once again, their helplessness?

 

An impossible regulation

Control and regulate the strategic nuclear system has been a long process slow to establish itself in the bipolar world of the cold war. Deregulation began at the end of this one with multipolarity, tolerances, exceptions and manipulations. It is growing with the US withdrawal of the 2015′ Iranian agreement that threatens the exit of the Korean stalemate, ignores the need for nuclear power, sends countries to reassure towards a creeping military nuclear proliferation. Nuclear disarmament is not for tomorrow.

Lorgnette :  Iraqi populism

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La Vigie n° 94 – 9 May 2018 : Regionalisms in Spain – The Vietnamese track – The Libanese democratic challenge

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Letter n° 94 – 9th May 2018

Regionalisms in Spain

The self-dissolution of ETA in the Spanish Basque Country does not only mean the end of an armed struggle, but above all it marks the end of an outdated ideology: that of revolutionary independence. It reveals the internal geopolitical balance of Spain, a country that has little known a strong state and which, in favor of democracy in 1975, invented an original way of decentralization that is not a federation. This helps to understand the current tension between Madrid and Catalonia. This does not mean that regional issues are over, in Spain as in Europe, because they are also responses to the furious globalization.

The Vietnamese track

Vietnam suffers the presence of a cumbersome neighbor which he must accomodate since ages. While imitating his politico-economic model, he must be careful not to fall into his orbit. To do this, it deploys a subtle strategy of the right balance and seeks through multiple partnerships the strategic depth it lacks. The strategy of balance that it deploys must enable it to preserve the centrality of the party, to satisfy an expected development and to contain a nationalist public opinion.

Lorgnette : The Libanese democratic challenge

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La Vigie n° 93 – 10 avril 2018 : Bomb. Intimidate – Demonstration of weakness – Lorgnette : Becoming tough

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Letter n° 93,  25  Avril 2018

L’USS Ross tire un missile d’attaque terrestre tomahawk le 7 avril 2017.

Bomb. Intimidate

What factors prevailed in the French intervention decision against Syrian sites? How can one read the precipitation of the missile strike? Why did one want it limited and without military effect? What indications do these choices give to the political goals pursued? Is military intimidation still possible today? So many legitimate questions for the analyst.

Demonstration of weakness

In addition to strategic analysis, strikes in Syria require geopolitical decoding. The United States, France and the United Kingdom (FRUKUS) basically had two objectives: to restore their credibility, and to regain a position allowing them to influence future negotiations behind the scenes. This explains the disproportion between the media buzz and the weak demonstration of the strikes. Everything was designed to pretend and aim for goals other than those that were so loudly displayed.

 

Lorgnette :  Becoming tough

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n° 92 (10 April 2018) : Nuclear Patchwork – Time is covering – Homicides in Brasil

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La Vigie, n° 92 :

Nuclear patchwork

The Cold War was based on a very deep ideological rift between two well-identified camps. This opposition was a perfect match for the construction of a nuclear deterrence based on the strategic dialectic between two actors. Today, the complexity has settled: not only are there several theaters of nuclear opposition, but these still bring together more than two actors and finally, there is now a general connection of these local theatres, without a super actor to polarize the whole. Therefore, a new strategic grammar seems necessary to think about this nuclear patchwork.

Time is covering

The political guaranty and the moral advantage that the countries of freedom derived from their virtuous behavior in the service of global governance have eroded with the wave of globalization whose economic stakes have perverted democracies. In the absence of any benevolent leadership and possible internatioanl regulation, sanctions are resorted to and dangerous games of intimidation are played. It’s a collective regression. Other political and strategic models could then emerge, devoting effective alternative actors. Weather is getting worse.

Lorgnette : Homicides in Brasil

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In Africa violent non-state actors give the illusion of sovereignty

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Thomas Flichy de La Neuville , Professor in Saint-Cyr’s military academy – Libya, Central African Republic, Mali.

In a regional context marked by the frailty of the State, little, determined and often violent groups currently drive political evolutions in Africa. These actors are sometimes cemented by ethnic or religious solidarities. Common interests more often gather them. They are thus in constant evolution, in particular as far as their system of alliance is concerned. The French army has been confronted to these actors on three theatres of operations: in Libya,  Central Africa and Mali. The main lesson, which can be drawn in 2017, is that these violent non-state actors – which prosper on the smoking ruins of the state – mimic sovereignty. In Libya, the violent non-state actors are entirely dependent from foreign powers (I). In the Central African Republic, where UN forces are powerless, some of them intend to create new states (II). In Mali, they have decided to seize the countryside, fighting desperately against the territorial chieftaincy (III).

Résultat d’images pour non state actors africa

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n° 91 – 28 mars 2018 : Seen from Sirius – Mayotte, island of Comoros – A hero

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Lettre n° 91, La Vigie du  28 mars 2018

Seen from Sirius

A Cold War climate is spreading in Europe and forces us to once again take the height to make an overview seen from Sirius. We can only see the feverishness of a Eurotlanic community blinded by a media, ecological and cultural overexposure that frightens our public opinion. Balances are changing and the old governance is getting out of date because of Russia and China, who are mainly challenging it, and are starting to develop a credible alternative for stability. We lose our sang-froid. It’s a great opportunity for France to start moving to the center of the game

Mayotte, island of Comoros

The island of Mayotte returns to the top of the news. The situation of this new department, poor and victim of illegal immigration, shows that the 2009 departmentalization did not produce the expected benefits. The case of Mayotte is not simply an internal matter of management of an overseas collectivity, it is also a problem of foreign policy and relations with the Comoros. Beyond this, it should encourage reflection on the French policy of DOM-COM, source of a gigantic maritime territory but also a mirror of all the difficulties of the current globalization.

RIP

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Lorgnette :   A hero (LTC Beltrame) Un héros

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N° 90 : A cracking EU – A mixed military programmation – Corean detente

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La Vigie n° 90 : 14 March 2018

A cracking EU

Despite a bounce last year with the French and German elections, the European Union seems to present new cracks that worsen. Notwithstanding the Selmayr affair, let us note that the old split between Old Europe and New Europe no longer seems to be operative, as the recent Italian elections have illustrated. The recovery sought by France faces many old and identified obstacles and it is not sure that Paris and Berlin are as aligned as the dream of France’s European project.

A mixed military programmation

What to think of this LPM straddling two quinquennates? If it dangerously reinstates the extra cost of OPEX in the military budget, it also focuses on the repair of major equipment deficiencies, increases the budget gradually and prepares the renovation of strategic forces. If it appears very imprudent in some respects, it is also realistic on the condition that one exercises the strategic restraint during the legislature.

 

La lorgnette : Corean detente

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La Vigie 89 (28 FEB 2018) : De-escalation as a grand strategy – Syrian escalation – A French narrative

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Escalade et désescalade ...

 

De-escalation as a grand strategy 

The time has come for France to adopt a grand strategy that characterizes it for the beginning of the twenty-first century. At a time when a Cold War episode is looming and the Euro-Atlantic world seems to be losing its composure and cohesion, France could promote widespread de-escalation and a return to the security fundamentals of the European continent. To regain the advantageous position of equilibrium power between America, Europe, Africa and Asia, it will have to some extent to misalign and detox from militant support to the structures and practices of the world of yesterday.

Syrian escalation

In Syria, the civil war has always seen outsiders intervene. As the IS vanished, we are now witnessing a rise in auctions that sees two axes confront almost directly: the United States, Israel and Arabia on one side; Syria, Russia, Iran and Turkey on the other. If all the leaders had shown stability in the past, it would not worry too much. Unfortunately, it is not the case. The risk of escalation is worrying.

La Lorgnette : A French narrative

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N° 88 : Citizens mobilization | Economic reason, political reason | Nuclear posture review

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La vigie, 14th Feb 2018.

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Citizens mobilization

the SNU, universal national service under examination is a short citizen conscription that closes the civic training process provided by the National Education. Breaking with the outmoded practice of military service, the unequalitarianism of the national service, it will have to preserve however the variety of civic sectors preparing for civic responsibility. To strengthen the cohesion of the country and mobilize youth on the same republican project, it is desirable to favor citizen conscription for all in the year of 18.

 

Economic reason, political reason

Since the 1980s, we have been living under the economic reason that undeniably dominates political reason. Globalization has initially reinforced this trend, but we have been witnessing, for the last ten years or so, a slow shift towards the return of political reason. Here is the real contemporary cleavage, more than the one between openness or closure, liberties or populism, conservatives or progressists.

Lorgnette : Nuclear posture review

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N° 87 : On secrecy and intelligence – Trompe l’oeil – Lorgnette : From NPT to NWPT

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About secrecy and intelligence

The debate on false news generally focuses on the relevance of the media and the inexorable popularity of social networks: the quantity would surpass the quality. However, it is not just about over-media that alternately reveals secrets (Wikileaks and whistleblowers) or protects them (hacks and plots). The hidden truth raises the question of secrecy in our societies. Is it a coincidence that the unbridled development of the media has gone hand in hand with the growing role of the intelligence services, but also of the attention paid by governments to these “secrets”, all the more tasty as they were more rare?

Trompe l’œil

By reviewing the recent declarations on our foreign policy and the prospects for the armed forces, we can see that the real effort to reniew France’s strategic posture is first and foremost about the method and not about the options taken earlier. Whether our interventions abroad, our European perspective or the expeditionary dialectic and its domestic benefits. Beyond the imperative of budgetary responsibility, we will seek the foundations of our defense policy. We will be worried about not having learned all the lessons from our strategic commitments since the end of the cold war.

Lorgnette : From NPT to NWPT

N° 86 : Strategic dead angles and French vulnerabilities – Revolts: season 2? – Lorgnette: Missile manouver

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Strategic dead angles and French vulnerabilities

What are the blind spots of our national defense and our national security? Certainly, our defense of the national territory, although imperfect, is always up to France. But our position of internal security remains weakened by the conceptual deficiencies of a national strategy whose coherence is insufficient. It is necessary to put in capacity not only social, political and judicial but also military to ensure the necessary public order guarantee of the rule of law.

Revolts: season 2?

In early 2018, two popular movements affect Iran and Tunisia. If they refer apparently to the previous troubles (respectively in 2009 and 2011), they are distinguished by their mainly social nature. Above all, this means that if political systems are not challenged, internal balances are a problem, whether complicated alliances in Tehran or the coalition in place in Tunis. The hypothesis of a regime change is unlikely, but the absence of an internal political alternative is likely to provoke other similar crises.

Lorgnette: Missile manouver