Africa – La Vigie

LV 259: Rethinking le pré carré | Trump upsets everything | Lorgnette : Predation in Goma

Posted on 5 February 20255 February 2025 by A M

Rethinking the pré carré

The notion of the ‘pré carré’, which smacks of the 17th century and reminds us of Vauban fortresses, is back! The expansionist ambitions of the new President of the United States have put it back in the spotlight. If the American square is set to grow, then others will follow suit. But what about France? Does it include its overseas territories? Faced with a threat from an ally, we urgently need to get back to strategic work!

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Trump upsets everything

The Trump presidency marks a further stage in the political crisis that has gripped the United States for the last ten years. But the new president has a vision and a programme. He is imposing a new Monroe Doctrine centred on an enlarged America and setting up a new predatory imperialism, hard on allies and soft on adversaries. The allies will have to relearn the grammar of the balance of power with this frenemy.

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Lorgnette: predation in Goma

In Africa, wars come and go, amid general indifference. In addition to the civil war in Sudan, there are some striking developments in eastern DR Congo: the M23 movement, supported and equipped by neighbouring Rwanda, has taken the large city of Goma (800,000 people) in the east of the DRC, despite the Congolese army, armed militias and the UN force MONUSCO.

Eastern DR Congo experienced two ‘Congo wars’ in the 1990s. The protagonists in the current crisis are the same: in addition to Kinshasa, the neighbouring countries (Rwanda and Uganda) are pushing their pawns to take control of the territory.

Two things seem to have changed: firstly, the desire to annex Rwanda is barely concealed and is in line with the predatory movements we are seeing around the world (Crimea, Donbass, Nagorno-Karabakh, Trump’s claims). Secondly, the indulgence enjoyed by P. Kagamé, the Rwandan leader, is reaching its limits: even Great Britain is calling for a reconsideration of its relations with the controversial leader.

Has he gone too far? That would be a first.

JOVPN

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Photo credit: Wikipedia

LV 252 : Will the Netherlands stay ? | BRICS+ or the anti-West | Lorgnette : forgotten Sudan

Posted on 30 October 202430 October 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 30 OCT 2024

Will the Netherlands stay?

As the final stage in our tour of France’s land borders, let’s take a look at the Netherlands, which France borders in the West Indies on the island of Saint Martin. Although this old European country is naturally turned towards the overseas territories – today the United Kingdom and the United States – it is nonetheless extremely pragmatic, which opens up interesting possibilities for cooperation for France, just as the Netherlands is multiplying international cooperation in the military field.

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BRICS+ or the anti-West

The BRICS+ meeting in Kazan does not simply reveal a more or less isolated Russia. This meeting of the recalcitrant bears witness to a certain disenchantment with the West, not necessarily hostility. Finally, the building blocks of a de-dollarisation movement have been put in place.

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Lorgnette: Forgotten Sudan

Since April 2023, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary militia led by General Hemetti, have been fighting a civil war against General Abdel al-Buhran’s Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The RSF are backed by the United Arab Emirates, and Chad, while the SAF are now supported by Russia (which had once backed the RSF via Wagner), Egypt and Turkey, as well as Iran and Qatar.

While the RSF, heirs to the Janjaweed militias, had taken control of a large part of the country (west and south), in recent weeks the RSF (which holds the east, north and Port Sudan) has had some success, even though the capital Khartoum remains in rebel hands.

The human toll is catastrophic: 10 million people displaced and 150,000 civilians killed. In addition to the war (and numerous war crimes), famine and floods (a dam has burst, for example) are compounding the calamities and suffering.

These tragedies are not attracting the interest of international public opinion, which is currently focused on two subjects: the American elections and the war in the Middle East. Even Ukraine has lost its appeal. So it’s hardly surprising that Sudan has been forgotten.

JOVPN

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Photo credit : https://photo-summit.brics-russia2024.ru/en/story/list_351209441/

LV 238: Deterrence and circumvention | Impossible victory | Lorgnette : The implosion of ECOWAS?

Posted on 20 March 202420 March 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, 20 March 2024

Deterrence and circumvention

The very nature of the war in Ukraine raises questions about the relationship between deterrence and conventional action. The search for a complete integration of military actions, through an approach based on physical environments and immaterial fields, paradoxically offers greater possibilities of circumventing deterrence at the lower end of the spectrum. This question of possible circumvention is becoming increasingly critical for the Atlantic Alliance, with the issues of credibility of resources and solidarity between Allies at stake in the run-up to the American elections.

Impossible victory

Victory may seem an obvious word, but it is fraught with pitfalls because it is so strongly influenced by history and the Western model of war. Yet the conflicts of the post-Cold War era and the most recent wars show how unsuitable this concept is. We need to rethink victory and see it as an illusion: other objectives need to be pursued.

Lorgnette: The implosion of ECOWAS ?

These are difficult times for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This “sub-regional” organisation (as the African jargon puts it) brought together 15 members from West Africa and the Sahel, from Nigeria to Senegal and Niger (but without Mauritania, which left in 2000). Originally an economic organisation, at the end of the 1990s it added a security mission (creation of Ecomog). It tried its hand at crisis mediation (Mali 2013, Gambia 2017). From 2019, its members will be discussing a common currency to replace the CFA franc. In 2017, Morocco and Mauritania asked to join.

But coups d’état from 2021 onwards hampered the process. Mali and Guinea were suspended, followed by Burkina-Faso, while Niger saw its trade transactions excluded and some people spoke of military intervention by the organisation to reinstate President Bazoum. The split became even more pronounced in January 2024, when Burkina, Mali and Niger announced that they were leaving the organisation. The heart of the Sahel is moving away from the Gulf of Guinea. The future is uncertain, as if suspended.

JOVPN

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LV 224: Africa: a change of cycle – AI and cyber attacks (1/2) – Lorgnette: Back to school, a disaster as usual ?

Posted on 6 September 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie dated 6 Sept. 2023

Africa: a change of cycle

The succession of coups d’état in West and Central Africa is evidence of a change of cycle that goes beyond the loss of French influence, due to a great deal of blundering and blindness. It is time to return to the strategic method.

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AI and cyber attacks (1/2)

The link between artificial intelligence and cyber attacks has curiously not been sufficiently explored. In a series of two articles, we will analyse how the two feed into each other, whether for defence or attack, and what missions and processes can be implemented. In this first part, we trace the major stages in the evolution of cyber conflictuality since the Copernican revolution of the attack on Estonia in 2017.

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Lorgnette: Back to school, a disaster as usual ?

It’s back to school time, and with it comes the usual stress that serves as a smokescreen for all sorts of delays and other problems.

When you look at the news, you are struck by the fact that it is always bad: everything is going wrong. As already noted last year (LV 203), the disaster seems to be total and the crises endless: Ukraine is not winning the war, African countries are staging repeated putsches, inflation is continuing, prices at the petrol pump are as high as ever, school supplies are too expensive, the Restos du cœur are receiving fewer donations but have to help many more people as the population sinks into precariousness, Insecurity is spreading to our towns and cities, the flow of refugees and immigrants is increasing, people no longer have confidence in the government, there aren’t enough teachers, the climate is out of kilter, it’s never been so hot, it’s never been so dry, there are fires, invasive species are destroying biodiversity, and so on.

We should ask ourselves about this trend to turn news into “bad news”: the climate is changing, and it is indeed becoming unhealthy. What is the point of alarmism, defeatism and declinism?

Let’s take a breath and transform the future!

JOCVP

LV 216: France as a heritage power | Fighting organised crime | Lorgnette : War in Sudan

Posted on 26 April 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 26 APR 2023

France as a heritage power

Controversies about the nature of France’s power continue. Far from its former glory, it is now only an inherited power, managed by expensive and arrogant heirs: it no longer inspires dreams, and the disaffection of its former colonies towards it has spread throughout Europe. Thus appears the real demarcation of the continent: between inherited powers and those who, robbed by the Soviets, have only their future to dream about.

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Fighting organised crime: a strategic priority

In the event of conflict, the capabilities of deliberately infiltrated agents are often mentioned: espionage, sabotage and subversion are part of their panoply. However, there is a drawback to their use: if they have not been infiltrated early enough, they risk being recognised quickly. On the other hand, organised crime, which has the same range of actions, knows the country and its weaknesses perfectly well, because it takes advantage of them. It is therefore strategic to fight against these criminal organisations in peacetime.

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Lorgnette: War in Sudan

Civil war has broken out in Sudan and already civilian casualties are in the hundreds, with evacuations taking place in a chaotic manner as the fighting rages and no ceasefire holds. The country had raised some hopes after a popular revolt that led to the departure of Omar al-Bashir (LV 155). Some people are surprised that these clashes are not between a government and a democratic opposition that is rebelling, but between two forces within the government. Should we see the action of the Russians and their naval base in Port Sudan (LV 123)? That would be giving them too much influence. Is it then ethnic unrest, like that which led to the secession of South Sudan? Or is it religious unrest with Islamists on one side and “pagans” (animists or Christians) on the other? Probably not.Perhaps there are some of these elements, but the background is even crueller: it is the opposition of two similar forces, the RSF (ex janjawid, these tribal militias of Darfur, see post) and the so-called regular armed forces. Two men are fighting for power and if they have foreign support, they want above all to take precedence over the other.

JOCVP

Photo crédit : Hervé S, France on VisualHunt

LV 213 / Africa farewell ! | New nuclear issues | Lorgnette : Arab-Persian deal

Posted on 15 March 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie dated 15 March 2023

Africa farewell!

From the Ouagadougou speech in 2017 to the one in Paris in 2023, one constant appears: the non-existence of France’s African policy. Added to this is the delicate relationship that we see in undiplomatic gestures. Faced with this observation, are we condemned to say: Africa farewell?

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New nuclear issues

Obsessed with the war in Ukraine, we fail to see the profound strategic changes that are taking place elsewhere, for example in the nuclear field: the end of the ballistic monopoly, the ambiguity of carriers, aggressive sanctuarisation, the death of arms control, the questioning of non-proliferation are all issues that are retroacting on the European theatre.

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Lorgnette: Arab-Persian deal

The recent announcement of an Iranian-Saudi agreement, concluded under the auspices of China, sounded like a thunderclap. Arabia had been announcing for some time that it wanted to break away from the Quincy Pact (LV 205). It did not sign the Abrahamic agreements between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain and the recent Israeli stiffening should not reassure it. As for Iran, the continuation of uranium enrichment despite sanctions and the JCPOA negotiations, the agreement with Russia and the recent popular discontent favour a change in strategic posture.

The agreement gives the impression of a simple restoration of diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Tehran. It seems to include a security dimension, the implementation of which will be seen in Yemen, where the Saudis seem to be negotiating while the UAE and the Americans are refusing. Basically, Arabia seems to want to diversify its sources of security and no longer relies solely on the United States. Washington, which has lost interest in the Middle East, is thus paying for its abstention and loss of credit. As for China, it has two of the main suppliers of hydrocarbons: that is enough for it.

The puzzle is moving in the region…

JOCVP

La Vigie Nr 201: Wild geese | What to think of the SCO ? | Lorgnette : Tigray, a forgotten war

Posted on 29 September 202229 September 2022 by A M

Letter from La Vigie dated 28 September 2022

The wild geese

After having had the wind in their sails at the articulation of the XX° and XXI° centuries, private military companies are being singled out because of Wagner’s actions. The latter is however not a singularity but an illustration of what such a company can be. Its use, which reveals the weaknesses of the Russian army, should also raise questions for those who claim to be strategists. Is the development of such companies compatible with a national strategy?

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What about the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation?

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has just held its annual summit in Samarkand, and it has received exceptional attention from the Western media, which is on the lookout for the slightest dissension between Russia, China and India in support of Moscow. But the important thing is not there but in the enlargement of the organisation to include Iran and the acceptance of a dozen countries, notably from the Middle East, as observers.

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Lorgnette: Tigray, the forgotten war

Here is a war that has been going on for two years, between a federal state that wants to bring a federated state of 6 million people to heel. There have already been 500,000 victims, aerial bombardments of civilian refuges, countless war crimes (including the use of starvation), drones, clashes between army groups of more than 20 divisions each, a 5-month truce suddenly broken, a backhanded attack by a neighbouring country, the regular use of armed drones.

It’s all happening in September 2022 and no, this is not Ukraine, but the conflict between Tigray and the Ethiopian federal government. So war is not back, it has never left our world, but who cares what happens in the Middle East, Yemen, Afghanistan or the Horn of Africa?

Yet the modalities of these wars are not so far removed from what we observe in Ukraine, despite the supposed evidence of “high intensity”, in fact common to all wars. The difference lies not in the armoured-mechanised dimension of one war compared to the other, but in its ultra media coverage.

The emotion in the face of the misfortunes of our fellow human beings should be the same. This is not the case. Wealth is not just about money.

JOCVP

Crédit photo : odi.org

La Vigie Nr 183 : From 2021 to 2022: Still uncertain! | Cordial disagreement | Lorgnette : South-African Nobels

Posted on 4 January 2022 by A M

Leter from La Vigie, dated 5 Jan 2022

From 2021 to 2022: Still uncertain!

The year 2022 still looks very uncertain: a banal America, a declining Russia, a tense China, a hesitant Middle East, a stalled Africa and an undecided Europe do not favour major strategic upheavals. The Sino-American rivalry remains the main structuring factor. As for France, we will have to wait for the presidential election to see clearly.

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Cordial disagreement

The year 2021 marked the end of what was intended to be a year of renewed leadership for the UK in world affairs. As 1 January 2022 marked the first anniversary of the effective entry into force of the Brexit, what can we learn from these twelve months? What does this mean for the future of the Franco-British relationship and the normalisation of the relationship between the EU and the UK?

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Lorgnette: South African Nobels

Two South African Nobel Prize winners have just passed away within a month of each other.

Frederik de Klerk, the last white president of South Africa, ended apartheid and organised a peaceful transition to a democratic regime that allowed blacks to take power. He won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1993 with Nelson Mandela. It was he who changed the doctrine of the National Party from 1989 onwards, legalised the black parties and freed Mandela in 1990. The official abolition of apartheid took place in 1991. He died on 11 November 2021.

Desmond Tutu is a black Anglican bishop who, coming from a modest background, preaches reconciliation between peoples. His fight for non-violence earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 1983. He presided over the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, which shed light on many crimes and avoided the confrontation that everyone predicted would follow the change of regime. He did not hesitate to denounce the excesses of Mandela’s successors, notably J. Zuma. He died on 26 December 2021.

Two good men who will be missed by South Africa, which is currently experiencing a lot of turmoil. May their successors be up to the task.

JOCV

Photo credit : gr37 on VisualHunt.com

La Vigie Nr 175 : 20 years after (9/11) | Land domain : what future ? | Lorgnette : war in Tigray

Posted on 14 September 2021 by A M

Letter from La Vigie of 15 September 2021

Twenty years after (September 11)

Who remembers September 11? Far fewer people than one might think, even though it was the first event with immediate global resonance, a strategic victory for the aggressors. It marked a turning point for America, which is not as definitive as it is said to be; political Islam has emerged as central, though no one knows if it is really sustainable. Finally, September 11 marked the beginning of European disillusionment from which we have not emerged.

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Land domain: what future?

The French Army has not necessarily been in the spotlight lately. According to its own words, it is preparing for increasingly tough wars and its increase in power, particularly in terms of capabilities, is consistent with its new doctrine. However, given the dangerous nature of the world, we will have to find reliable allies.

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Lorgnette: War in Tigray

Since November 2020, war has been raging in northern Ethiopia. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for his reconciliation with Eritrea, has embarked on a policy of centralising this federal country. He quickly wanted to bring Tigray, the northern province that had played a major political role in past decades, to heel: it was the Tigrayans who had brought down the regime of Mengistu (the Black Stalin), and had led the country since 1991.

A minority (7% of the 110 million people), they had allied themselves with the Oromo ethnic group but had to leave power three years ago because their management was considered too biased. Their successor, who appeared to be a man of compromise, was even more so when he launched hostilities last year. However, after initial setbacks, the Tigrayans regained the advantage and repelled both the Eritreans who were attacking in the north and the Ethiopian army coming from the south. Since then, they have allied themselves with other ethnic groups and the federal model is in danger of breaking up, while massacres and exactions are on the increase.

The second most populous country in Africa is risking its survival.

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Photo credit :SeeMidTN.com (aka Brent) on VisualHunt.com

La Vigie Nr 166 : The end of the state ? | Strategic posture of Italia | Lorgnette : Chadian domino

Posted on 28 April 202128 April 2021 by A M

Letter La Vigie, dated 28 APRIL 2021

The end of the state?

It seems obvious to us that we live in a state. However, modern state organisation is the result of a long process and the contemporary rule of law is not a constant. Today, states are challenged by various means, which weakens and discredits them. How then can the legitimacy of the state be strengthened?

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Italy’s strategic posture

Contemporary Italy, heir to three Romas, is fundamentally Mediterranean and existentially European. These determinants do not prevent it from having a very deep alliance with the United States while maintaining a special relationship with Russia. In Europe, it has a complicated relationship with Germany, the result of centuries of experience. With the Brexit causing a reshuffling of European balances, this is a good time for a rapprochement between Paris and Rome, despite recent frictions and provided France forgets its condescension.

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Lorgnette: Chadian Domino

The violent death (in troubled circumstances) of Idriss Déby, the Chadian president, constitutes a geopolitical earthquake. It is first and foremost an internal one because, as a good despot, he had not prepared his succession. Without even mentioning the representation of popular aspirations, his system will be difficult to perpetuate and should re-launch rivalries between clans. Let’s remember that the conquest of power has always been done by arms, especially by the northern tribes.

But it is above all the regional balance and the French security apparatus that are weakened. In the military system left in Africa after the Cold War, N’Djamena has always occupied a place of choice thanks to its central position. It has been strengthened more than ever following the troubles in the Sahel-Saharan strip that have followed one another over the past decade, and particularly the intervention in Mali. It should be remembered that the headquarters of Operation Barkhane is located in N’Djamena and that the Chadian troops were the only effective ones in the G5 Sahel on which Paris is basing so much hope. By domino effect, all the countries in the region can now fall. This is bad news.

JOCV

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Crédit photo : pixabay