LV 220: The current strategic project | Aviation news | Lorgnette : Italian genrations

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 21 June 2023

Source : https://www.turgisetgaillard.fr/

The current strategic project

On the eve of summer, there are numerous meetings and consultations in a variety of formats between operators around the world who are repositioning themselves. They are all looking ahead to the new strategic era ushered in last year by the war in Ukraine. The result is a major strategic project on multiple fronts, paving the way for a multi-faceted international society with new dividing lines.

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Aviation news

In the wake of the war in Ukraine, the Paris Air Show provides an opportunity to take a look at some of the latest developments in the air: the tactical and strategic lessons to be learned, as well as the technical dimensions and the programmatic and industrial challenges.

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Lorgnette: Italian generations

Silvio Berlusconi is dead: his death has given rise to a great deal of media coverage tinged with a kind of nostalgia. The man with the permanent smile transformed politics, turning it into a communications tool. While many saw him as a predecessor to Trump, we should note that he ushered in a devitalisation of political debate in Europe, with the standardisation of ideas and a passion for the ephemeral quip. Is this the end of an era?

Perhaps, if we look at the career of Georgia Meloni, Italy’s current Prime Minister, who hails from the neo-fascist right. She managed not only to get into power but also to stay there. So here we have a politician from the sovereign right who has managed to come to terms with the EU while developing a series of moves, particularly towards the Maghreb: signing a gas contract with Algeria, supporting Tunisia for an IMF loan, insisting on the issue of migration in the Mediterranean. This is something new that we need to pay attention to, especially if we look at the establishment of sovereign parties in Europe (Finland) or their electoral success (Spain). Does Italy herald a lasting trend?

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LV219 (free): An acceptable programming law, in the end | Strategic illusion | Lorgnette : BRICS and NBD

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 7 June 2023

An acceptable Programming law, in the end

Hastily decided and prepared, preceded by a mediocre Strategic Review, the Military Planning Law is nevertheless ambitious, although it is still a catch-up law. The €413 billion will enable us to continue to increase the density of our armed forces without falling into the trap of high intensity, which would be the ultimate goal of any strategy. Measured and balanced, it maintains a prudent coherence.

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Strategic illusion

Any inherited power creates a bubble of illusion into which only its friends and allies, or those it considers to be such, can enter. There is no room for conflict, which leads to the denial of the other as a potential opponent and to the watering down of the vocabulary. The common good no longer exists because only one voice is allowed, and neither does strategy, which is designed to defend it. Is the strategist an endangered species?

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Lorgnette: RBICS and NBD

The recent meeting of BRICS foreign ministers in Cape Town can be read in different ways. The Western media focused on whether V. Putin would be granted diplomatic immunity for this summer’s summit, given that he is the subject of an ICC arrest warrant. Officially, the BRICS have made no secret of their annoyance at the way international society currently operates, and especially at the priority given to the war in Ukraine, while “the plight of the poor is forgotten“.

However, that was not the most important issue: the ministers discussed above all the introduction of a common currency “including how it could protect other member countries from the repercussions of sanctions such as those imposed on Russia” (link). To achieve this, the BRICS will use the New Development Bank (NBD), which will be able to grant loans in local currency. This is clearly a sign of defiance towards the United States and the dollar. Finally, Saudi Arabia was invited to the summit, and some twenty countries want to join the circle. A political convergence is in the process of being built: this is new (see dossier n°9).

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LV 218 : After Bakhmut | Switzerland reserved | World demography

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After Bakhmout

The fall of Bakhmut puts an end to a strategic sequence that began this winter. This small Russian success says nothing about the future of the fighting, but wear and tear and the beginning of public fatigue suggest that discussions are beginning behind the scenes.

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Switzerland reserved

Continuing our tour of France’s land borders, we take a closer look at Switzerland in this issue. What are its founding myths and why might its original army model interest us in 2023?

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Lorgnette: world demography

Demography rarely makes the news. Yet it is one of the most measured strategic factors, heralding long and predictable trends up to 50 years ahead. Although there is much talk of the digital revolution or global warming, and although globalisation is no longer a popular concept, demography remains a forgotten science that is necessary for building strategies (LV 110).

Now, if Europe is in a phase of accelerated demographic collapse (Italy, Germany, Spain and all the countries of Central and Eastern Europe), the latest figures published show that the world’s population will soon face accelerated ageing. By 2050, there will be fewer births than deaths on the planet. In South Korea, the fertility rate has fallen to 0.8 children per woman. The French population should continue to grow until 2040, but with an increased weight of seniors (1/3 against ¼ today). Beyond social questions (pensions), other issues are looming: what share should be given to immigration, while Africa, a world exception, should see its population double in a few decades? Which soldiers for our armies, which are already struggling to recruit?

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LV 217: Peaceful moods in the Arabian Peninsula | Japan’s strategic assertion | Coronation

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 10 May 2023

Peaceful moods in the Arabian Peninsula

The strategic posture of Saudi Arabia has recently evolved a lot, with many factors: personal evolution of MBS, redimensioning of the politico-religious issue, war in Yemen, Iranian rivalry, Middle Eastern environment, oil issue, role attributed to the United States.

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Japan’s strategic assertion

Japan continues the normalisation of its strategic posture started in 2015 and amplified by the war in Ukraine and the prospects of tension around Taiwan. It is preparing to become a true regional security contractor.

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Lorgnette: Coronation

The strong-minded who don’t mind were therefore quick to explain how the coronation of Charles III was an outdated legacy of the past, anachronistic, necessarily out of date. The ‘serious’ newspapers, The Guardian and The Times, found the King sullen, stilted, anxious.

And yet, after the death of Elizabeth II, who had led a transition to modernity and whose death marked the end of a certain twentieth century (LV 200), this coronation marks something both new and very old.

The novelty lies in the modernising touches the king brought to the ceremony. It is better to speak of an update, since the present pomp and circumstance is ultimately a recent invention (see here).

But it is especially important to note the respect of another dimension, going back further, that of the coronation. By definition, it is a unique event, a sacredness of the royal person. Charles III was aware of this and had a hieratic face. This word must mean nothing to strong minds. Yet this dimension was clearly perceptible during the ceremony, a mass in which the king, dressed in liturgical vestments, acquired another state. For from now on, his status precedes the state…

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Photo crédit : U.S. Department of State

LV 216: France as a heritage power | Fighting organised crime | Lorgnette : War in Sudan

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 26 APR 2023

France as a heritage power

Controversies about the nature of France’s power continue. Far from its former glory, it is now only an inherited power, managed by expensive and arrogant heirs: it no longer inspires dreams, and the disaffection of its former colonies towards it has spread throughout Europe. Thus appears the real demarcation of the continent: between inherited powers and those who, robbed by the Soviets, have only their future to dream about.

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Fighting organised crime: a strategic priority

In the event of conflict, the capabilities of deliberately infiltrated agents are often mentioned: espionage, sabotage and subversion are part of their panoply. However, there is a drawback to their use: if they have not been infiltrated early enough, they risk being recognised quickly. On the other hand, organised crime, which has the same range of actions, knows the country and its weaknesses perfectly well, because it takes advantage of them. It is therefore strategic to fight against these criminal organisations in peacetime.

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Lorgnette: War in Sudan

Civil war has broken out in Sudan and already civilian casualties are in the hundreds, with evacuations taking place in a chaotic manner as the fighting rages and no ceasefire holds. The country had raised some hopes after a popular revolt that led to the departure of Omar al-Bashir (LV 155). Some people are surprised that these clashes are not between a government and a democratic opposition that is rebelling, but between two forces within the government. Should we see the action of the Russians and their naval base in Port Sudan (LV 123)? That would be giving them too much influence. Is it then ethnic unrest, like that which led to the secession of South Sudan? Or is it religious unrest with Islamists on one side and “pagans” (animists or Christians) on the other? Probably not.Perhaps there are some of these elements, but the background is even crueller: it is the opposition of two similar forces, the RSF (ex janjawid, these tribal militias of Darfur, see post) and the so-called regular armed forces. Two men are fighting for power and if they have foreign support, they want above all to take precedence over the other.

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LV 215: Germany in disarray | The European issue | Lorgnette : Ill Tunisia

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 12 April 2023

Germany in disarray

Year after year, La Vigie studies the evolution of the German question. Chancellor O. Scholz promised a “Zeitenwende” in February 2022, nothing would be the same as before, and behind this catch-all concept, everyone hoped that the situation would improve. What has happened after one year? Let us note that if some profound changes are taking place, notably in the area of defence, German foreign policy has never been so unreadable, apart from being docile to the Americans.

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The European issue

Paradoxically, Europe has emerged from the war in Ukraine little strengthened, despite last year’s thunderous declarations. It seems to be lined up behind a more fragile and febrile America than before, with the prospect of at least three decades of tensions with its eastern neighbour. At the same time, internal tensions are rising while its external image is deteriorating sharply and it is losing interest in the rest of the world. What was a model in the aftermath of the Cold War now seems to have been singularly depreciated.

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Lorgnette: Tunisia ill

Tunisia is sinking into crisis. The hope of the Arab revolts of ten years ago is fading and not reassuring. Ten years of deleterious interplay between political forces and economic decline, not to mention jihadist episodes that have undermined confidence. The election in 2019 of Kaïs Saïed, an inexperienced nationalist, is gradually moving towards an authoritarian system, both to overcome traditional blockages and to serve an obscure policy. The dissolution of the parliament in 2022 followed by the adoption of a new constitution despite a very low turnout was only one step in the political deterioration.

Today, the country is on the verge of insolvency with a huge debt. Spirits are gradually dying down, the president remains inflexible, playing on the support of his Algerian neighbour and advocating economic sovereignty, the reasons for which are hard to see. Wanting to disconnect himself from the West and especially from Europe, he hopes to find external support in China or Russia. But without natural resources, heavily dependent on European tourism and with a long history of European integration, this strategy seems very risky. A worrying stiffening.

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LV 214: The Second 21st Century: An Inventory Essay | The end of the American dream | Lorgnette: street violence

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Letter from La Vige, dated 29 March 2023

The Second 21st Century: An Inventory Essay

Here is a first attempt at an inventory of the global governance that prevails after the change of strategic era caused by the Russian aggression in Ukraine. What has disappeared, what remains, what is emerging, what we do not know, the consequences for France … Uncertainties and vigilance

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The end of the American dream

America has lost its soft power and now only shows its hard power. Disinterested in the world’s margins, no longer able to influence the whole planet, it is pulling its European ally into its anti-China obsession, without seeing that the rest of the world is organising itself without it.

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Lorgnette: street violence

The successive demonstrations in France show a level of violence that is increasing. The precedents of the Notre-Dame des Landes ZAD and the Yellow Vests have indeed convinced many radicals that violence can change the course of things these days. The governmental retreats of the past authorise current audacities, which are all the more vivid because political life is sluggish. Whatever the legality of the political representations given by the institutions, the authorities have lost their majesty and therefore the auctoritas that accompanied them, and hence their legitimacy. But the disaffection with political power may go back further, when the 2005 referendum was disavowed two years later by a reform made on the sly.

Let us note that the democratic crisis is general, in Europe (Great Britain, Germany) or elsewhere (huge demonstrations in Israel). Elections do not guarantee democracy. Unfortunately, demonstrations rarely prevail, see the recent examples of Iran (LV 202), Sri Lanka (LV 190) or Algeria (file 11).

Political disorder leads to disorder in the streets. Politics needs to be refounded.

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LV 213 / Africa farewell ! | New nuclear issues | Lorgnette : Arab-Persian deal

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Letter from La Vigie dated 15 March 2023

Africa farewell!

From the Ouagadougou speech in 2017 to the one in Paris in 2023, one constant appears: the non-existence of France’s African policy. Added to this is the delicate relationship that we see in undiplomatic gestures. Faced with this observation, are we condemned to say: Africa farewell?

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New nuclear issues

Obsessed with the war in Ukraine, we fail to see the profound strategic changes that are taking place elsewhere, for example in the nuclear field: the end of the ballistic monopoly, the ambiguity of carriers, aggressive sanctuarisation, the death of arms control, the questioning of non-proliferation are all issues that are retroacting on the European theatre.

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Lorgnette: Arab-Persian deal

The recent announcement of an Iranian-Saudi agreement, concluded under the auspices of China, sounded like a thunderclap. Arabia had been announcing for some time that it wanted to break away from the Quincy Pact (LV 205). It did not sign the Abrahamic agreements between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain and the recent Israeli stiffening should not reassure it. As for Iran, the continuation of uranium enrichment despite sanctions and the JCPOA negotiations, the agreement with Russia and the recent popular discontent favour a change in strategic posture.

The agreement gives the impression of a simple restoration of diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Tehran. It seems to include a security dimension, the implementation of which will be seen in Yemen, where the Saudis seem to be negotiating while the UAE and the Americans are refusing. Basically, Arabia seems to want to diversify its sources of security and no longer relies solely on the United States. Washington, which has lost interest in the Middle East, is thus paying for its abstention and loss of credit. As for China, it has two of the main suppliers of hydrocarbons: that is enough for it.

The puzzle is moving in the region…

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LV 212: Lost illusions | Luxembourg outside the walls | Lorgnette : One year of war

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Letter from La Vigie dated 1st March 2023

Lost illusions

France’s foreign policy is facing a field of ruins: all European ambitions are shattered by the realignment caused by the war in Ukraine, our situation in Africa is devastated, our ambitions in the wider world are confused and misunderstood. So this is the perfect time to stop talking out of turn, to reflect and to choose.

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Luxembourg outside the walls

Let’s continue the tour of the French marches by studying its land neighbours, this time the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. How is it that a country with no strategic depth has managed to have the highest gross domestic product per capita in the world and to be a key player in Europe? Thanks to an influence strategy of extraterritoriality.

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Lorgnette: One year of war

The end of February marked one year of war in Ukraine, or more precisely nine if we consider the beginning of the conflict in 2014. But the intensity, the harshness, the length of the fighting and the breadth of the front make it an exceptional war and a mostly industrial war, both classic and contemporary. We have described it at length on our site, whether in our articles or in the weekly situation reports, but also in the book War in Ukraine published in November (here).

But this war can still last. We do not believe in the victory of one of the two, so much so that this term is a misleading word (LV 208). Given the progress made here and there and the tenacity of the parties, this is a war that is not frozen, the outcome of which is still undetermined. The longer the conflict goes on, the less possible it seems that negotiations on an equal footing are possible, as neither of the two belligerents is willing to settle their losses with a bad compromise. The consequences of the war would be long-lasting: a thorn in Europe’s side for decades to come. In addition to the losses, the wounded and the injured, in addition to the massive destruction, it is a European balance that must be rebuilt as quickly as possible.

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LV 211 : South Korea: the nuclear temptation | Europe’s Ukrainian spiral | Lorgnette : balloon hunting

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Letetr from La Vigie dated 15 FEB 2023

South Korea: the nuclear temptation

South Korea is the tenth largest economy in the world but strategically it is heavily dependent on the United States. However, if Europe is interested in Ukraine and Washington is interested in China, the Korean question is becoming more sensitive, with 90 missile tests carried out by Pyongyang. So much so that Seoul is talking very strongly about nuclear capabilities again.

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Europe’s Ukrainian spiral

One year after the Russian aggression in Ukraine, this article answers the following three questions: How did it come to this? How will it finish? How can we avoid a repeat? It advocates an immediate Russian-Ukrainian strategic pat.

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Lorgnette: balloon hunting

The earthquake in Turkey and Syria has claimed 40,000 lives, but the death toll is expected to double or even triple. The disaster took place in the area bordering the two countries, where the last Syrian opponents, many of them jihadists, have taken refuge under Turkish control. International aid is arriving, but the observer senses a kind of embarrassment, both towards the devious Erdogan and towards the banished Assad. As a result, humanitarian emotion seems to be stifled.

Meanwhile, America is dealing with air balloons and sending its best jets to shoot them down, issuing flight bans, suggesting UFOs… The incredulous observer thinks he is dreaming in front of both amateurism and over-reaction. He has the impression that the American government is reacting like in Hollywood superhero movies, when Mars attacks and you have to do everything to defend yourself. The show is shown to the willing public and the message is simple: the alien is China, the alien to be wary of.

At the same time, articles are multiplying to predict that Ukraine will lose.

As if the media washer were saying: Let’s move on…

JOCVP

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