La Vigie – English – Page 2 – The bimonthly geostrategic letter

LV 242 : Decentralised Spain | Tenacious internal fragility | Lorgnette: The Ukrainian turn

Posted on 16 May 2024 by A M

Letter frm La Vigie, dated 15th May 2024

Decentralised Spain

A new stage in the rediscovery of France’s neighbours on land: Spain. It is a textbook example of a state where the tension between central government and the regions is critical. This political focus explains its strategic ambition, which bears no comparison with the empire it once was.

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Tenacious internal fragility

After leading to conflicts far away, the attacks of the 2010s brought attention back to the domestic front. But the return of war, particularly in Ukraine, is prompting people to look outside again. Yet the situation at home seems more fragile than ever, as many signs show. We must not forget the home front.

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Lorgnette: The Ukrainian turn

After the failure of the Ukrainian offensive in the summer of 2023, the fighting continued throughout the autumn and winter, with slow Russian pressure which, thanks to a very favourable fire ratio, gradually nibbled away at a few positions and crushed the Ukrainian forces. The symbol was the capture of Avdivka in February 2024 (LV 236), a large suburb of Donetsk where the Ukrainians had been fortifying themselves since 2014.

But after a pause in March, the Russians resumed their push more vigorously from April onwards, whether in Chasiv Yar (a suburb of Bakhmut) or to the west of Avdivka, managing to make clearer progress at a rate of 25km² per week. Since last Friday, in addition to recurring fighting along the entire front, they have launched a major push north of Kharkiv, pushing aside the Ukrainian forces and taking several dozen square kilometres. Ukraine is short of weapons, ammunition and manpower. Western aid remains at a low level and the military situation seems very compromised.

It seems that we are witnessing a military turning point on the ground, even though Moscow has not yet launched all its forces. A turning point is taking place and the words ‘collapse’ are being uttered more and more. Are we close to the end?

JOVPN

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LV 241 : Raids in the Middle East and the threshold of disuasion | NATO’s decoupling | Lorgnette: 7 years on

Posted on 2 May 20242 May 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 1st May 2024

Raids in the Middle East and the threshold of disuasion

The reciprocal attack by Iran and Israel in April was the first direct aggression against the Hebrew state for decades: a threshold of escalation has been crossed. But it pits two powers on the nuclear threshold against each other: does the classic grammar of deterrence still apply?

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NATO’s decoupling

The entry of the first Russian troops into Ukraine prompted NATO member states to support the invaded country. European voices then proclaimed that the Alliance was being strengthened, as evidenced by the accession of Sweden and Finland. However, decoupling mechanisms (not just transatlantic) are at work, threatening the Alliance’s very survival.

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Lorgnette: 7 years on

7 years after the 1st speech at the Sorbonne (LV 107), 3 pages of text later, where does France and Europe stand? A list of successes, still implacable observations, progress to be made, incentives to build the European pillar of the Alliance, to implement common strategies, to apply the strategic compass, to rethink energy and agricultural policies, to use France’s nuclear weapons to protect Europe…

There’s nothing fundamentally new here, apart from the fact that we can guess at the impact of farmers’ protests against rising energy prices. We have already dealt with these issues in a previous issue (LV 237), which gives this speech a surprising tone. Can we keep repeating the same observations and the same proposals, betting on our listeners’ amnesia? Some of the German press echoed this perplexity, while French columnists did not hesitate to evoke a “strategic rupture”… Europe is thus at a turning point in the face of uninhibited powers, the risk of falling behind, and the battle of the imagination. “I have come to talk to you about Europe”, he said 7 years ago.

What if we were now to take action?

JOVPN

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LV 240: India at the centre of the power game | War economy | Lorgnette: Junta in trouble

Posted on 17 April 202417 April 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 17 April 2024

India at the centre of the power game

Changes in the strategic context, marked by the growing importance of the Indo-Pacific, are tending to give the Indian Ocean a central role. India, the only credible power in the region, is taking advantage of this to position itself at the barycentre of the power game, between non-alignment and multi-alignment.

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War economy

The war economy has returned to the public discourse in the wake of the war in Ukraine. Yet this concept belongs to historical circumstances (the twentieth century) that are far removed from the country’s current situation. So why are the authorities using this expression?

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Lorgnette: Junta in trouble

The Burmese junta continues to suffer setbacks. The Karen insurgents, who have rallied to the NUG (Government of National Unity), have just taken the town of Myawaddy, the most important crossing point to Thailand. Since the offensive launched last October, the junta’s opponents have scored a series of successes. While the junta retains control of the skies (thanks to Russian support), its troops on the ground are shaky. Defections are multiplying to such an extent that the junta decided in February to resort to conscription, which has exacerbated the population exodus. It is estimated that in the three years since the end of Burma’s democratic spring, the population of 54 million people has been made up of almost 100,000 refugees and 1.6 million displaced persons.

Is this the end? It is too early to say, because for the moment it is mainly the margins of the country that are being taken over by the rebellion, not the ethnic Burmese heartland, which remains under the overall control of the regime. The regime has little support, but many of its neighbours fear, without saying so, a Burmese chaos. China, which is officially silent on the principle of non-interference, is unhappy to see the Burmese alliance unravel: its aim was to develop direct access to the Bay of Bengal.

JOVPN

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LV 239: The long Tunisian road | Where is the front line ? | Lorgnette: Bleak Olympic games

Posted on 3 April 20243 April 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, 3rd April 2024

The long Tunisian road

After a lost decade, Tunisia, which was at the forefront of the Arab revolts, has handed over to Kaïs Saïed. A populist who is preparing for re-election at the end of the year, no one knows whether he has a plan or whether he will lock himself into certainties without a project. France has forgotten Tunisia. This silence must be used to rebuild ties.

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Where is the front line?

Curiously, our leaders tell us that our armies are engaged on the “eastern flank”. But if the area between the North Cape and the Caucasus is the flank, where is the front? What is behind this geographical, tactical and doctrinal nonsense? So let’s have the courage to look the front in the face.

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Lorgnette: Bleak olympic games

Paris will be hosting the Olympic Games this summer, and it has to be said that the event is far from enchanting. The older generation will remember the good mood and pride that surrounded the 1992 Albertville Olympics. Nothing like that this year. For one thing, the geopolitical situation does not make the atmosphere very optimistic, and everyone senses that the Games could be the occasion for serious disruptions, whether cyber attacks or terrorist attacks.

Secondly, the Olympic magic has disappeared and this great media machine produces a lot of noise but not necessarily dreams. Amateurism has faded to such an extent and the money machine is so visible that nobody really believes in the show. The prices advertised are insane, both in the stadiums and in the hotels.

Finally, the disruption to everyday life is already there and is accelerating. The major transport works will not be completed and the municipal, regional and even national authorities are doing their utmost to come up with absurdities, encouraging Parisians and French people to flee the area.

With such repulsive communication, how do you expect the party to start? Fleeing the Olympics?

JOVPN

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LV 238: Deterrence and circumvention | Impossible victory | Lorgnette : The implosion of ECOWAS?

Posted on 20 March 202420 March 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, 20 March 2024

Deterrence and circumvention

The very nature of the war in Ukraine raises questions about the relationship between deterrence and conventional action. The search for a complete integration of military actions, through an approach based on physical environments and immaterial fields, paradoxically offers greater possibilities of circumventing deterrence at the lower end of the spectrum. This question of possible circumvention is becoming increasingly critical for the Atlantic Alliance, with the issues of credibility of resources and solidarity between Allies at stake in the run-up to the American elections.

Impossible victory

Victory may seem an obvious word, but it is fraught with pitfalls because it is so strongly influenced by history and the Western model of war. Yet the conflicts of the post-Cold War era and the most recent wars show how unsuitable this concept is. We need to rethink victory and see it as an illusion: other objectives need to be pursued.

Lorgnette: The implosion of ECOWAS ?

These are difficult times for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This “sub-regional” organisation (as the African jargon puts it) brought together 15 members from West Africa and the Sahel, from Nigeria to Senegal and Niger (but without Mauritania, which left in 2000). Originally an economic organisation, at the end of the 1990s it added a security mission (creation of Ecomog). It tried its hand at crisis mediation (Mali 2013, Gambia 2017). From 2019, its members will be discussing a common currency to replace the CFA franc. In 2017, Morocco and Mauritania asked to join.

But coups d’état from 2021 onwards hampered the process. Mali and Guinea were suspended, followed by Burkina-Faso, while Niger saw its trade transactions excluded and some people spoke of military intervention by the organisation to reinstate President Bazoum. The split became even more pronounced in January 2024, when Burkina, Mali and Niger announced that they were leaving the organisation. The heart of the Sahel is moving away from the Gulf of Guinea. The future is uncertain, as if suspended.

JOVPN

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LV 237: European Deterrence – Economic Sovereignty – Lorgnette : Elections in Iran

Posted on 6 March 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, 6 March 2024

European deterrence

Candidate Trump’s recent comments that American protection in NATO was conditional on a European defence effort have reignited the debate on European deterrence. In the event of a strategic default by the US with regard to its European allies, could the French nuclear force take over to protect EU countries? LV takes a detailed look at this sensitive issue at a time of particularly aggressive pressure from Russia.

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Economic sovereignty

The return to favour of the term sovereignty should not conceal the difficulties it implies: is one sovereign in an area when one does not control all its constituent elements? Does the State have the means to defend the companies it intends to keep sovereign? Can sovereignty ignore the management of companies and their legal form? At a time when the world has changed profoundly, a new understanding of the term sovereignty is needed.

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Lorgnette: Elections in Iran

The Iranian elections took place last Friday and were marked by a record abstention rate (41%), even though the conservatives officially won. To conquer without peril is to triumph without glory. This hostility reflects the country’s disappointment with the results of those in power: aspirations for greater freedom have followed one another with yet another uprising (LV 202) last September after the death of Mahsa Amini, who did not respect the headscarf, an uprising that was once again put down in bloodshed. But economic difficulties are also having an impact (50% inflation).

By appointing the Assembly of Experts, the election is also paving the way for the succession of the “Leader”, Ali Khamenei, who is 88 years old. By locking society down to such an extent, the regime is showing a degree of internal feverishness, despite the fact that its diplomacy is gaining ground, succeeding in renewing relations with Saudi Arabia and avoiding confrontation with Israel while at the same time embodying the camp of refusal. Relations with Russia and China have been strengthened.

So Iran is waiting for the American elections (betting on Trump) and the succession of the Leader. Heaven can wait. So can the Iranian people.

JOVPN

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LV 236: Italian twin | Ukrain : two years on | Lorgnette : the return of war

Posted on 23 February 202423 February 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie dated 21 FEB 2024

Italian twin

La Vigie continues its tour of France’s land borders with a look at Italy. The country has opted for multilateralism, but is currently suffering from a lack of strategic vision at a time when all landmarks are disappearing: France shares this moment of uncertainty, and our interests may well converge.

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Ukraine: two years on

The war in Ukraine began two years ago. After recalling the main phases of the conflict so far, La Vigie takes stock of the situation from the Russians, Ukrainians, Americans, Europeans and French.

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Lorgnette: The return of war

In 2023, the number of wars and casualties rose to levels not seen since the end of the Cold War. While the second half of the 20th century saw a decline in the number of wars and armed conflicts, over the last few months these have been on the rise again, both in terms of numbers and victims.

2023 has counted nine major wars around the world, taking place in the Sahel (1,418 deaths in Burkina Faso alone in 2022), Somalia, Sudan (since the start of the war in April 2023, there have been 6 million displaced persons and already 9,000 deaths), Burma, Ukraine (it is plausible that each side could exceed 100,000 deaths, mainly in the military), Gaza, Nigeria, Syria and Yemen, three wars that continue to claim large numbers of victims.

And yet these wars are attracting varied attention: while the French public is interested in Ukraine and, to a lesser extent, Gaza, no one is watching Burma, the African conflicts or Yemen. We should be wary, however, of Western centrism, despite its media power. Finally, with rare exceptions, today’s wars are long. They rarely result in clear-cut victories.

JOVPN

Photo credit : Lukas Johnns chez Pixabay here

LV 235 : Portugal or extreme Europe | The EU faced with its contradictions | Lorgnette: the past that won’t go away

Posted on 6 February 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie dated 7 FEB 2024

Portugal or extreme Europe

Portugal, this small cape of Europe, appears not only as its extremity but also as its extreme example. Proud of a prestigious history, having dominated large parts of the world that it had to abandon, it is rich to have been. It is a fine European symbol.

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The EU faced with its contradictions

In the run-up to the European elections, and with a change of political leadership in the offing in Brussels, the EU is facing up to the far-reaching consequences of the war in Ukraine, as well as the discontent of many Europeans. Can the word ‘sovereignty’, which has ceased to be taboo, really find a definition in the language of the EU?

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Lorgnette: the past that won’t go away

On Sunday 21 January, almost 1.4 million Germans took to the streets to protest against the rise of the AFD (Alternative für Deutschland), the far-right party that advocates the expulsion not only of immigrants but also of “recent citizens”. The AFD is climbing in the polls, both in the former GDR and in the West.

The issue is not simply the attitude towards a political line but the question of the relationship with the past. For decades, Germany has held back politically because of the guilt it carries and maintains about the Nazi past. However, some members of the AFD have no hesitation in forgetting the past and putting the guilt aside.

Basically, the question posed to Germany is a question posed to the whole of Europe: what balance should be struck between the necessary duty to remember and the equally necessary duty to forget? For while we must not forget the totalitarian excesses and the abominable horrors they directed, radical repentance also appears to be abusive in that it handicaps all action. Writing history has always been a political matter, and it is more so than ever today. Should we always put the past behind us?

JOVPN

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LV 234: In war, there is only wealth in men | Depolarisation | Lorgnette : Other Eastern tensions

Posted on 24 January 202424 January 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, 24th January 2024

In war, there is only wealth in men

For three decades, it was thought that expeditionary wars required professional soldiers. The wars of the 21st century show that the debate between quality and quantity, cannon fodder and technology, professionalisation or conscription, active and reserves, nationals and foreigners needs to be revisited.

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Depolarisation

With the fall of the Berlin Wall, the polarised world gave way to a unipolar moment and then to a multipolar world. The proliferation of conflicts that no single power has been able to stop, the collapse of political movements, cultural bases and economic models have led to the emergence of a depolarised world prey to the appetites of the most voracious. However, France has the means to take advantage of this particular moment to reassert itself so that it does not have to choose voluntary servitude.

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Lorgnette: other Eastern tensions

For many analysts, the main issue in the Far East is the Chinese question, with regard to its neighbours or the United States. But the Korean question is likely to become much more sensitive. Last year, Kim Jong-Un stepped up his demonstrations of force (ballistic missile tests), which he is continuing this year: bombing of Yeonpyeong Island, testing of an underwater weapon and a hypersonic IRBM missile. The Constitution once again designates South Korea as the first hostile country.

In South Korea, after attempts at détente (LV 90), a hardening is underway (LV 211), which will be the focus of the April elections. But Kim was humiliated by the negotiations with D. Trump in 2016 (the latter left the table before the end of the talks). He sees that America is embroiled in multiple crises and is in an election year. He has strengthened his ties with Russia and delivered millions of shells for the war in Ukraine. V. Putin will visit Pyongyang this year.

Bluff again or march to war? The Ukrainian example may have given the Korean leader some ideas, despite China’s opposition to this tension.

JOVPN

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LV 233 : Outlook for 2024 | A single objective : Victory ! | Lorgnette : 2023, a hot year

Posted on 10 January 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 10 January 2024

Outlook for 2024

On the whole, 2023 was a gloomy year, with wars in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, Burma, the Sahel and Yemen, Burma, and the crises in the Sahel and Yemen), but there were a few some positive flashes. 2024 offers an uncertain EU, a weakened United States United States, a Middle East under great strain, Asia following its own course, Africa in turmoil and France undecided.

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A single objective: victory!

The funds allocated to the armed forces are increasing sharply all over the world. Conversely, many operations and wars, especially in the West, have become bogged down or have ultimately failed, in recent years. The questions that arise are: what is the purpose of the army? and how to achieve victory? A re-reading of Clausewitz would seem a wise way of answering these highly topical questions.

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Lorgnette: 2023, a hot year

Météo-France made this clear in a note published last month: 2023 is the hottest year since the beginning of the pre-industrial era (1850-1900). It overtakes 2016 and 2020, 2nd and 3rd. The global temperature is 1.4°C above the “normal” average.

Although some regions experienced temperatures below these long-term averages below these long-term averages (for a short time), the global consequences are clear: sea ice has retreated, many regions have experienced record-breaking heat, fires and floods have increased, and species extinction has developed. 2023 will also be one of the warmest years in years to come. We’ll remember it as an almost normal year, compared with the excessive temperature extremes that await us tomorrow.

There are two options for reducing greenhouse gases, the main cause of global warming. responsible for global warming: reduce our production (and therefore consumption of fossil fuels) or to bet on technological solutions that are slow in coming on the scale we need. But we’ll need both if we want to be able to say: “we’ve been hot! “.

JOVPN

LV 232 : Reinventing the maritime security model | Multiple standards | Lorgnette : Dual Kissinger

Posted on 27 December 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie dated 27 December 2023

Reinventing the maritime security model

Recent actions at sea against economic assets, in both the Black and Red Seas, have prompted us to reflect on maritime security. For a long time a subordinate issue of naval strategy, the concept deserves to be reviewed in depth, at a time when the multiplication of activities and critical infrastructures at sea are multiplying, suggesting new risks.

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Multiple standards

In recent weeks, some have criticised the West for adopting a “double standard”, proclaiming virtues that are applied differently depending on the circumstances. Without pointing to the incoherence of other players, it is worth noting that this doubt, taken to extremes, betrays first and foremost the loss of influence of a West that is unravelling and weakening by dint of doubt.

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Lorgnette: Dual Kissinger

The death of Henry Kissinger has prompted us to revisit this astonishing figure. The story of this young man who fled Nazi Germany to become a professor at Harvard and then an active adviser to American presidents remains an extraordinary one. He fascinates because he is one of the rare examples to have been, at the highest level, both a geopolitician and a geopolitologist, both a practitioner and a theoretician. It’s not just a question of giving advice and appraisals to those who govern us from time to time: every geopolitologist does it, at a lesser level. Dear Henry Kissinger was in charge of affairs and, in the conditions of his time, he pushed ahead with the rapprochement with China, which at first appeared to be an attempt to bypass the Soviet Union, but with long-term consequences that can still be seen today.

Kissinger was above all a theoretician, notably through two books: Diplomacy (1994), a brilliant realist overview of international relations over the past two centuries. World Order (2016) attempts to explain that there has never been a world order and that we need not worry about the disorder of the 21st century. Two fascinating books.

JOVPN

Photo credit: La Vigie

LV 231: War in the Middle East: Rereading the classics | Avoid surprise | Lorgnette: things are rocking in Buenos Aires

Posted on 12 December 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 13 Dec 2023

War in the Middle East: Rereading the classics

A number of commentators have described Israel’s operation in the Gaza Strip as a colonial war. This term, which assumes that Gaza is a colony of Israel, is not the most appropriate. Re-reading Trinquier or Beaufre allows us to consider that this is first and foremost a revolutionary war.

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Avoid surprise

Any army in operation, any strategist wishing to launch a war, seeks surprise in order to increase its gains. This article outlines the characteristics of surprise and the need for it. But if the enemy is also trying to surprise us, how can we avoid being surprised ourselves?

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Lorgnette: things are rocking in Buenos Aires

On 19 November, Argentinian voters nominated Javier Milei for the country’s presidency with 56% of the vote. Described as anti-system, populist and ultra-liberal, labels struggle to describe this loud-mouthed opportunist. Many compare him to Trump or Bolsonaro, even though his initial measures show a pragmatism far removed from the excesses of the election campaign.

Is this a sign of political radicalisation in Argentine society? Not really, but rather the weariness of a people in a country that is collapsing, with inflation at 140%, a poverty rate of over 40%, money reserves at rock bottom and an economic situation at half-mast. What’s more, they are exasperated by the endemic corruption of the politicians who have been in power for years. So why not vote for someone who wants to bring down the system, since the system no longer works?

J. Milei has already put some water in his wine, looking for political alliances to be able to govern: he only has 38 seats out of 350. He will have to compromise. It’s not certain that the system won’t digest him too.

JOVPN

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