LV 207: 2022: strategic review | Ukraine war: perspectives | Lorgnette: World cup

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 21st December

Merry Christmas ! See you in 2023…

2022: strategic review

The past year has seen the collapse of many strategies that lacked depth and were developed at a time when the return of war was not seriously considered. The conflict in Eastern Europe reminds us that strategy is a dialectic of wills using force to resolve their conflict. A revision of strategic thinking is necessary for those who want to remain free.

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Ukraine war: perspectives

The war in Ukraine shows a stabilisation of the fronts, which may not only be due to bad winter weather but also to the exhaustion of the belligerents. Both sides are trying to build up their strength, both in men and in equipment. But despite their declarations, neither can seriously envisage victory. The time for negotiations has come, without promising anything other than a cease-fire.

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Lorgnette: World Cup

The recent World Cup is full of lessons. Let’s start by welcoming Argentina’s victory and France’s improbable but ultimately close-to-success journey. The competition was held in a good atmosphere and the grumblers on both sides were silenced: both the moral teachers who called for a boycott and those who predicted internal dissension after the high-stakes matches, especially against Morocco. Common sense triumphed and a quiet patriotism prevailed.

These sports competitions have a huge virtue: they turn the confrontation and rivalry between nations into a game that is enough to ease most tensions, especially since the opponents are random. A match between the United States and Iran gets attention, but despite the geopolitical background, the confrontation remains benign. Sport makes it possible at little cost (whatever one says about the expenses of the World Cup or the players’ salaries) both to unite nations without pushing them into chauvinistic excesses, and to organise adversities whose outcome is resolved by a simple score.

The pacifying virtue of sport, which distributes happiness and simple emotions.

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LV 206: Back from Singapore | High intensity: taking the high road | Lorgnette: The Kertch bridge

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Letter from La Vigie dated 7 December 2022

Back from Singapore

On his return from a visit to Singapore, the strategist was stunned by what he had seen: here was the capital of globalisation, succeeding in physically and culturally reuniting the East and the West, which, according to Kipling, “will never meet“. And yet, Singapore demonstrates the opposite…

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High intensity: taking the high road

The prevailing discourse, especially since the new phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war started on 24 February 2022, insists on the need for the French armed forces to be prepared to be engaged in a ‘high intensity’ war scenario. While leaving the decision to modify the operational contract of our expeditionary armies to the political power, let us lend ourselves to the exercise: inspired by what we can observe in Ukraine, what are the lessons that we must (re)learn to be able to fight such battles?

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Lorgnette: The Kerch Bridge

On the night of 7-8 October, the Ukrainians managed, to the surprise of everyone, to hit the Kerch Bridge, presumably with the help of a naval drone. This was not only a serious blow to Russian logistics but also a deliberate attack on one of the symbols of Crimea’s attachment to Russia.

On 5 December, barely two months later, Vladimir Putin visited the bridge, which he himself had inaugurated on 15 May 2018.

This visit, which few people expected, is rich in lessons. If Putin travels to and from this bridge in person without any problems, it is because he is healthy enough to do so, that he is not afraid to be absent from places of power despite the conspirators, that he manages to move without foreign intelligence anticipating it, that Russian engineering is working hard and that there is no question, despite the withdrawal from Kherson, of abandoning Crimea.

At the same time, the Ukrainians managed to hit two strategic bases 800 km inside Russia. The political stakes are rising on both sides.

This war is far from over.

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LV 204 : A new strategic world is emerging | Corruption and strategy | Lorgnette : in two voices

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Lettre from La Vigie Nr 204 dated 9 novemrbe 2022

A new strategic world is emerging

The war in Ukraine seems to be stabilising the fronts, which is a setback for Russia and a Ukrainian success. The strategic consequences will be long-lasting, notably by entrenching the West’s opposition to its Moscow neighbour. For all that, this war is not in itself a turning point but the ultimate revelation of a multiform crisis that has shaken up our strategic world for ten years.

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Corruption and strategy

Corruption, which is not generally included in the fundamentals of strategy, nevertheless invites itself into the debates as soon as it is implemented: the corrupter encourages those he corrupts to model their strategy on his own, or at least to make them compatible. Strategists are also affected, as their assessments of the situation may be biased or corrupted, making them less relevant.

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Lorgnette: in two voices

Ah, dear novlangue… that which offers simultaneous and contradictory points of view. A delight in two recent examples.

COP27 is currently taking place in Sharm-el-Sheikh and developed countries would like emerging economies to finally stop their frenetic consumption of hydrocarbon energy – while the West reopens coal-fired power stations, Europe builds LNG terminals and buys shale gas from the US.

German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD) criticised Qatar and its protection of human rights two weeks before the start of the World Cup.

The Qatari Foreign Minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, reacted in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung: he feels irritated by the German double standard, which has nothing against Qatar when it comes to evacuating nationals from Afghanistan or buying Qatari gas or oil, but which gets on its high horse when it comes to sports…

Let us not mock too much: let he who has never sinned cast the first stone.

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LV 203: Crisis: a question of morale | Did you say deterrence ? | Lorgnette: stiff China

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Letter from La Vigie Nr 203 dated 26 October 2022

Crisis: a question of morale

We are living in a state of protean crises, which are becoming endless and simultaneous, creating a climate of anxiety. War is a form of crisis and the military are specialists in crisis management and insist on the importance of morale in order to overcome them. Shouldn’t we draw inspiration from the military model to face current crises?

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Did you say deterrence?

President Macron’s statements the other night on deterrence may have been clumsy. However, they bring up the debate on an essential question, renewed by a world nuclear order that is unravelling, from NWBT to the end of the INF treaty, from Ukraine to North Korea. It is high time to get back to the terms of the discussion.

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Lorgnette: Stiff China

As we predicted last summer (LV 197), the Chinese stiffening has been accentuated on the occasion of this 20th Congress of the CCP. Let us remember that in China, power belongs to the party. We saw the humiliating way in which Hu Jintao, the previous leader, was ruthlessly dismissed in front of the world’s television channels, and also the composition of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau, in which only Xi Jinping’s supporters were promoted.

Despite the difficulties, or more likely because of them, the Chinese leadership has chosen to persevere: in its noxious anti-Covid strategy, in the pursuit of an economic policy that has produced disappointing results this year, and in its opposition to Taiwan, which is now enshrined in the CCP charter. This clear hardening accompanies Xi’s unlimited power, designated for a third term.

The hard line can be expected to become more pronounced, both in opposition to the US and in support of V. Putin. Yet the possibility of failure increases the risk of a breakout action in the zone, notably against Taiwan, betting on a weakening US following the mid-terms. Worrying.

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La Vigie Nr 200 (special): Power, Europe, speeches | N° 200: eight years of La Vigie | Strategic fasting | Lorgnette: New Kingdom

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Letter from La Vigie, 14 September 2022

Power, Europe, speeches

Olaf Scholz in Prague and Emmanuel Macron in front of the ambassadors have both just given speeches that mention their visions of Europe. If there are real convergences, let us note that the perspectives seem different. Yet, despite the apparent persistence of divisions, the European Union has managed to move forward. Its ability to compromise is perhaps what makes it truly powerful.

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N° 200: eight years of La Vigie

With this issue 200 of La Vigie, we wanted to draw the guiding thread of the strategic transition that has affected all security issues for the past eight years, from 2014 to 2022. For France, three milestones are decisive: 2015, the year in which the country was warned about terrorism on its own territory; 2019, the year of the global health breakdown; and 2022, with the Russian invasion in the heart of Europe. To do this, we consulted our eight end-of-year reviews, which are highly instructive: yes, we have indeed changed our strategic framework and we will have to adapt to it.

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Strategic fasting

It is accepted, whether for religious or non-religious reasons, that frugality and fasting have virtues for the human body. Figuratively speaking, it is becoming urgent for our state social bodies to adopt a more frugal posture, at all levels, in order to safeguard their independence and thus their sovereignty.

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Lorgnette: New Kingdom

At the time of the Queen of England’s Golden Jubilee, we hailed her as the last living political witness to the Second World War (LV 194). Her death coincides with the arrival at 10 Downing Street of Liz Truss, a sort of B. Johnson in petticoats. The simultaneity of the two events marks the definitive end of an era, that of a British twentieth century that had managed to make the transition from the world’s leading power to a European power that had fallen into line. This phantasmagorical England, which tries to maintain its traditions in the face of a changing world, is the source of the ‘soft power’ narrative of popular television series (The Crown, Downton Abbey, Peaky Blinders). That England is no more.

We have entered a new world, the post-Brexit world, perhaps the world of a ‘Global Britain’ (LV 165). There is no guarantee that the new king, Charles III, will have the reassuring prestige that Elizabeth II had built up. That discreet charm of the monarchy has thus left us. But the small regret at the fading of “yesterday’s world”, as S. Zweig said, is in the end the nostalgic characteristic of all changes of era.

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La Vigie Nr 194 : India is on its way | Conceptual wavering | Lorgnette : God save the Queen

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 8 June 2022

India is on its way

India is attracting little interest, even though its rank among nations is growing steadily. Its strategy remains marked by its cumbersome neighbours (Pakistan, China), but its tradition of non-alignment makes it resistant to American neo-imperial embroilment. This is an opportunity for France, which is in good agreement with this South Asian power, an agreement that goes beyond signed contracts.

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Conceptual wavering

From strategic compass to strategic concept, there is a general wavering as the war in Ukraine seems to be stalling. It is the moment of the first assessments among the Europeans who are divided on the way to go. It is perhaps also the time for France to question its defence posture, to take its time to find out how to integrate the lessons of the strategic surprises coming from Moscow and Kiev.

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Lorgnette: God save the Queen

The Queen of England has just celebrated her jubilee, the 70th anniversary of her reign. The longevity is understandably surprising, but not as surprising as the popular fervour that has surrounded these celebrations. A silent sovereign, the Queen nevertheless won the support of her subjects thanks to her remarkable demeanour and reserve: who was not impressed by her brief three-minute statement at the time of the Covid pandemic, calling on her compatriots to hold on? It was a change from the lengthy speeches made by other leaders.

Source

Yet it is not this exemplary role played by an exceptional personality over these 70 years that counts. It is the tribute to the last human being who came close to the political management of the Second World War. It is true that she had no decision-making power at the time, but she already had the awareness of a national mobilisation to resist the enemy.

This memory is still prominent in contemporary England, which cannot be understood if we ignore the pride of having resisted with sweat, blood and tears. Elizabeth II is also a witness to that moment, to that sacred union of the British people. May God keep you!

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La Vigie Nr 182 : France and the full strategic exercise | New Caledonia: what now? | Lorgnette: sustainable coexistence

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Letter from La Vigie dated 22nd Dec 2021

France and the full strategic exercise

To close this year and feed the strategic debate of the presidential elections, here are the four logics that structure the strategic posture of France at the end of 2021: the neighbours, the competitions, the frictions and the cold wars. In the post-Covid world that is opening up, should we keep this outdated 20th century software? Can we explore a new one to enable France in Europe and Europe in the world to propose another point of balance, free from the rivalry between the United States and China? Will the year 2022 be a milestone in France’s strategic history or a reactivation of its previous actions?

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New Caledonia: what now?

The last referendum logically – and legitimately – decided to keep New Caledonia in the French nation. However, there is still a destiny to be built, as the rock remains divided: these divisions resemble many others, including in metropolitan France. Beyond that, it is a Pacific strategy for France that must be built.

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Lorgnette: sustainable coexistence

The experience of peoples forges the social capital that allows them to be governed. America comes from the conquest of the West and prosperity, China from the idealised Tianxia and prescribed harmony, Europe from the banishment of internal struggles after devastating tragedies. The result is three strategic trajectories that are not convergent today, even if an essential model of Western governance is seen as universal. The Asian model is therefore seen as alternative and therefore antagonistic. But what humanity would gain from political unification would deprive it of the pluralism whose richness comes from accepted diversity.

Here is a lesson from Jean Marie Guéhenno’s latest book, “Le premier XXIe siècle” (here) that LV recommends. His groping but rigorous approach denounces the harebrained triumphalism of a democratic West today in a deep identity crisis that is blinded by a Chinese obsession and wants to unify the world. Just as China wanted to take the best of the West to keep the best of China, should the West not take the best of China to save the best of the West, which is assumed pluralism? To be explored and meditated upon.

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La Vigie Nr 181 : On civil war | Azerbaijan in turmoil | Lorgnette : pre-2022 strategic debate

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Letter from La Vigie, December 8, 2021

On civil war

Civil war is a conflict between parties in a constituted political unit. Its causes have varied throughout history, but like external warfare, it contributes powerfully to the constitution of the state (or to its dissolution). Today, it seems much more frequent than external war, even if it seems unlikely in France.

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Azerbaijan in turmoil

One year after the end of the second Nagorno-Karabakh war, sporadic clashes have resumed. Let us begin a cycle of in-depth analysis of the Transcaucasus and start with Azerbaijan, reviewing its delicate game of alliances and its place in the regional balance.

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Lorgnette : pre-2022 strategic debate

The preparation of the 2022 electoral scene continues with new candidates. Preliminary debates focus on issues of purchasing power, immigration and internal security (see above). They address the domestic issues that are crucial in a presidential election. Yet the prospect of the upcoming French presidency of the European Union opens the door to debates on the posture of the European Union and its strategic autonomy in the current world disorder. French arms export successes underline the rearmament of Middle Eastern countries, the volatility of power relations in West Asia (see above) and the ongoing technological competition. The Sino-American rivalry is more about Taiwan than the New Caledonia referendum and France’s interests in the Asia-Pacific.

The debate of the electoral campaign should, however, seriously address the strategic questions of the ambient conflict, France’s military commitments, France’s place in Europe and Europe’s place in the world, and the means to be devoted to the country’s security.

LV is preparing to contribute to this.

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La Vigie Nr 180 : Air and space environments: displaying power | FR CHOD strategic vision | Spain : party of the void

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Letter from La Vigie, November 24, 2021

Air and space environments: displaying power

Air power implies mastering technology, which has led to certain excesses in the thinking of the air and space community that are now being questioned. The need for a return to deployable mass and the contribution of drones seems to be a method for achieving this. But the Franco-German projects (SCAF) are uncertain. Finally, the air environment has logically extended to space which is becoming a demanding environment where challenges abound.

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FR CHOD Strategic Vision

The public launch of the new Chief of Defence Staff’s strategic vision is a good opportunity to give the military a voice to specify their contribution to the country’s security. Three sensitive issues emerge: high intensity confrontation, strategic surprise and the need for a global security policy for France.

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Lorgnette: Spain, party of the void

Contemporary Spain (LV 172) is, like Italy, adept at political innovation. It had invented Podemos, a far-left party. Founded in 2014, it obtained 20% of the vote in 2015 and has participated in a coalition government since 2019. Ciudadanos, a liberal party, originally Catalan, spread throughout Spain from 2014. But these good electoral results of 2015 and 2016 have not been confirmed. These political parties want to get out of the alternative between PSOE, PP and independents.

A new attempt is emerging, that of the Party of Emptiness (España Vaciada: Emptied Spain), formed in September. A poll already promises it 15 deputies. It brings together the neglected territories, neither capital nor rich coastal region (i.e. Catalonia and the Basque Country). They are disconnected from the networks (motorways, TGV, high-speed Internet). They are reminiscent of the Yellow Vests, but above all of the French “Diagonal of Emptiness”, that scarf of underdevelopment crossing the hexagon from the North-East to the South-West.

We must be attentive to this non-ideological but territorial political experiment, bringing together the “somewhere” against the “anywhere”. The return of the local (LV 94) will perhaps be the next surprise.

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La Vigie n° 177 : Uchronies 2100 | Finally alone ! | Lorgnette : Polish challenge

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Letter from La Vigie dated October 13, 2021

Uchronies 2100

What are the major strategic paths on which France can embark? Where will we be in 2100? We propose three deliberately divergent uchronies to explore the consequences of our actions if nothing changes today. Let’s hope that they will fuel our reflection and help us imagine an enviable original option.

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Alone at last!

Solitude is a possible strategic choice, contrary to what we too often think. It abandons many flaws in the analysis of the current globalisation, and many fantasies of a solution as well. If it is well thought out, by choosing partners here or there on this or that subject, and by not hesitating to seek power relations elsewhere, it should make it possible to find new margins for manoeuvre in line with our long-term interests.

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Lorgnette: Polish challenge

The Polish Constitutional Court this week ruled that the Polish Constitution is superior to the EU treaties in certain cases. This is another stone thrown into the EU’s garden, after the turmoil of the Brexit. Some speak of a legal Polexit. Poland would remain in the Union but would opt out of some common legal rules. Denmark and Germany have said similar things (LV 142). This is a major challenge, since the Union is built on law. The Polish decision calls into question this essential foundation of the Union’s effectiveness (we do not dare use the word “power” in relation to the EU).

The case is eminently political. The threat of the end of subsidies will not scare Warsaw, which may be using this decision to establish a balance of power with Brussels. Other countries (Hungary and even the Czech Republic) will oppose any retaliation that is too serious. Once again, a Brussels certainty is being called into question: the ineluctability of European construction and its superstructure. So far, crises have been overcome, but with increasing difficulty. A road accident can be fatal.

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