LV 244 (free): Extended Mediterranean: Italy’s ambitions beyond Europe | Grand strategy in disarray | Lorgnette: Indian elections

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 12th June 2024

 

Extended Mediterranean: Italy’s ambitions beyond Europe (LV 244) (free)

Since 2022, Italy has decided to adopt a new strategic positioning in an area stretching from the Gulf of Guinea to the north-western Indian Ocean, which it calls the “extended Mediterranean”. This cross-cutting vision, which includes diplomatic and economic as well as military and security aspects, underlines Rome’s ambitions for a southern flank of NATO and the EU that has too often been neglected. In support of this strategy, Italy is also developing a strong naval base, centred on a major upgrade of capabilities and spectacular growth in volumes, making it an essential partner for France, particularly in the Indo-Pacific.

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Grand strategy in disarray (LV 244) (free)

Grand strategy remains a demanding discipline, combining diagnosis and decision, thought and action. Since its inception, La Vigie has tirelessly explored this method. We note its structural weakening, which reflects the deterioration of political debate. Yet other countries have succeeded in implementing major strategies. If we leave it to the course of events, we will encounter tragedy. Then perhaps grand strategy will be reborn.

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Lorgnette : Indian elections

The elections that have just taken place in India are full of lessons. Narendra Modi did not achieve the triumph he had hoped for, even though his coalition managed to secure a third term in office. Domestic factors played their part: doubts about the Prime Minister’s ultra-Hindu political project, the tarnished aura of a man from the bottom, economic successes (7% growth) that do not redistribute enough (unemployment remains high), and persistent regional disparities.

However, this will give him a free hand internationally to continue his balancing act (LV 240). It will continue to combine its grand strategy: cooperation with the West, notably within the framework of the Quad (United States, Australia, Japan), while benefiting from the indulgence of the Europeans; cooperation with the BRICS and notably Russia, whose oil feeds its economy; pursuit of economic development in support of a globalisation that brings prosperity; attachment to its neighbours in the Indian Ocean; a marked effort towards Africa; maintenance of a degree of tension with China and Pakistan.

What is most remarkable is the decorrelation between domestic political life and foreign policy.

JOVPN

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LV 239: The long Tunisian road | Where is the front line ? | Lorgnette: Bleak Olympic games

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Letter from La Vigie, 3rd April 2024

The long Tunisian road

After a lost decade, Tunisia, which was at the forefront of the Arab revolts, has handed over to Kaïs Saïed. A populist who is preparing for re-election at the end of the year, no one knows whether he has a plan or whether he will lock himself into certainties without a project. France has forgotten Tunisia. This silence must be used to rebuild ties.

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Where is the front line?

Curiously, our leaders tell us that our armies are engaged on the “eastern flank”. But if the area between the North Cape and the Caucasus is the flank, where is the front? What is behind this geographical, tactical and doctrinal nonsense? So let’s have the courage to look the front in the face.

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Lorgnette: Bleak olympic games

Paris will be hosting the Olympic Games this summer, and it has to be said that the event is far from enchanting. The older generation will remember the good mood and pride that surrounded the 1992 Albertville Olympics. Nothing like that this year. For one thing, the geopolitical situation does not make the atmosphere very optimistic, and everyone senses that the Games could be the occasion for serious disruptions, whether cyber attacks or terrorist attacks.

Secondly, the Olympic magic has disappeared and this great media machine produces a lot of noise but not necessarily dreams. Amateurism has faded to such an extent and the money machine is so visible that nobody really believes in the show. The prices advertised are insane, both in the stadiums and in the hotels.

Finally, the disruption to everyday life is already there and is accelerating. The major transport works will not be completed and the municipal, regional and even national authorities are doing their utmost to come up with absurdities, encouraging Parisians and French people to flee the area.

With such repulsive communication, how do you expect the party to start? Fleeing the Olympics?

JOVPN

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LV 238: Deterrence and circumvention | Impossible victory | Lorgnette : The implosion of ECOWAS?

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Letter from La Vigie, 20 March 2024

Deterrence and circumvention

The very nature of the war in Ukraine raises questions about the relationship between deterrence and conventional action. The search for a complete integration of military actions, through an approach based on physical environments and immaterial fields, paradoxically offers greater possibilities of circumventing deterrence at the lower end of the spectrum. This question of possible circumvention is becoming increasingly critical for the Atlantic Alliance, with the issues of credibility of resources and solidarity between Allies at stake in the run-up to the American elections.

Impossible victory

Victory may seem an obvious word, but it is fraught with pitfalls because it is so strongly influenced by history and the Western model of war. Yet the conflicts of the post-Cold War era and the most recent wars show how unsuitable this concept is. We need to rethink victory and see it as an illusion: other objectives need to be pursued.

Lorgnette: The implosion of ECOWAS ?

These are difficult times for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This “sub-regional” organisation (as the African jargon puts it) brought together 15 members from West Africa and the Sahel, from Nigeria to Senegal and Niger (but without Mauritania, which left in 2000). Originally an economic organisation, at the end of the 1990s it added a security mission (creation of Ecomog). It tried its hand at crisis mediation (Mali 2013, Gambia 2017). From 2019, its members will be discussing a common currency to replace the CFA franc. In 2017, Morocco and Mauritania asked to join.

But coups d’état from 2021 onwards hampered the process. Mali and Guinea were suspended, followed by Burkina-Faso, while Niger saw its trade transactions excluded and some people spoke of military intervention by the organisation to reinstate President Bazoum. The split became even more pronounced in January 2024, when Burkina, Mali and Niger announced that they were leaving the organisation. The heart of the Sahel is moving away from the Gulf of Guinea. The future is uncertain, as if suspended.

JOVPN

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LV 234: In war, there is only wealth in men | Depolarisation | Lorgnette : Other Eastern tensions

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Letter from La Vigie, 24th January 2024

 

In war, there is only wealth in men

For three decades, it was thought that expeditionary wars required professional soldiers. The wars of the 21st century show that the debate between quality and quantity, cannon fodder and technology, professionalisation or conscription, active and reserves, nationals and foreigners needs to be revisited.

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Depolarisation

With the fall of the Berlin Wall, the polarised world gave way to a unipolar moment and then to a multipolar world. The proliferation of conflicts that no single power has been able to stop, the collapse of political movements, cultural bases and economic models have led to the emergence of a depolarised world prey to the appetites of the most voracious. However, France has the means to take advantage of this particular moment to reassert itself so that it does not have to choose voluntary servitude.

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Lorgnette: other Eastern tensions

For many analysts, the main issue in the Far East is the Chinese question, with regard to its neighbours or the United States. But the Korean question is likely to become much more sensitive. Last year, Kim Jong-Un stepped up his demonstrations of force (ballistic missile tests), which he is continuing this year: bombing of Yeonpyeong Island, testing of an underwater weapon and a hypersonic IRBM missile. The Constitution once again designates South Korea as the first hostile country.

In South Korea, after attempts at détente (LV 90), a hardening is underway (LV 211), which will be the focus of the April elections. But Kim was humiliated by the negotiations with D. Trump in 2016 (the latter left the table before the end of the talks). He sees that America is embroiled in multiple crises and is in an election year. He has strengthened his ties with Russia and delivered millions of shells for the war in Ukraine. V. Putin will visit Pyongyang this year.

Bluff again or march to war? The Ukrainian example may have given the Korean leader some ideas, despite China’s opposition to this tension.

JOVPN

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LV 233 : Outlook for 2024 | A single objective : Victory ! | Lorgnette : 2023, a hot year

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 10 January 2024

Outlook for 2024

On the whole, 2023 was a gloomy year, with wars in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, Burma, the Sahel and Yemen, Burma, and the crises in the Sahel and Yemen), but there were a few  some positive flashes. 2024 offers an uncertain EU, a weakened United States  United States, a Middle East under great strain, Asia following its own course, Africa in turmoil and France undecided.

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A single objective: victory!

The funds allocated to the armed forces are increasing sharply all over the world. Conversely, many operations and wars, especially in the West, have become bogged down or have ultimately failed, in recent years. The questions that arise are: what is the purpose of the army? and how to achieve victory? A re-reading of Clausewitz  would seem a wise way of answering these highly topical questions.

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Lorgnette: 2023, a hot year

Météo-France made this clear in a note published last month:  2023 is the hottest year since the beginning of the pre-industrial era  (1850-1900). It overtakes 2016 and 2020, 2nd and 3rd. The global temperature is 1.4°C above the “normal” average.

Although some regions experienced temperatures below these long-term averages below these long-term averages (for a short time), the global consequences are clear: sea ice has retreated, many regions have experienced record-breaking heat, fires and floods have increased, and species extinction has developed. 2023 will also be one of the warmest years in years to come. We’ll remember it as an almost normal year, compared with the excessive temperature extremes that await us tomorrow.

There are two options for reducing greenhouse gases, the main cause of global warming. responsible for global warming: reduce our production (and therefore consumption of fossil fuels) or to bet on technological solutions that are slow in coming on the scale we need. But we’ll need both if we want to be able to say: “we’ve been hot! “.

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JOVPN

 

LV 231: War in the Middle East: Rereading the classics | Avoid surprise | Lorgnette: things are rocking in Buenos Aires

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 13 Dec 2023

War in the Middle East: Rereading the classics

A number of commentators have described Israel’s operation in the Gaza Strip as a colonial war. This term, which assumes that Gaza is a colony of Israel, is not the most appropriate. Re-reading Trinquier or Beaufre allows us to consider that this is first and foremost a revolutionary war.

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Avoid surprise

Any army in operation, any strategist wishing to launch a war, seeks surprise in order to increase its gains. This article outlines the characteristics of surprise and the need for it. But if the enemy is also trying to surprise us, how can we avoid being surprised ourselves?

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Lorgnette: things are rocking in Buenos Aires

On 19 November, Argentinian voters nominated Javier Milei for the country’s presidency with 56% of the vote. Described as anti-system, populist and ultra-liberal, labels struggle to describe this loud-mouthed opportunist. Many compare him to Trump or Bolsonaro, even though his initial measures show a pragmatism far removed from the excesses of the election campaign.

Is this a sign of political radicalisation in Argentine society? Not really, but rather the weariness of a people in a country that is collapsing, with inflation at 140%, a poverty rate of over 40%, money reserves at rock bottom and an economic situation at half-mast. What’s more, they are exasperated by the endemic corruption of the politicians who have been in power for years. So why not vote for someone who wants to bring down the system, since the system no longer works?

J. Milei has already put some water in his wine, looking for political alliances to be able to govern: he only has 38 seats out of 350. He will have to compromise. It’s not certain that the system won’t digest him too.

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LV 223 (free) : What the war in Gaza tells us | Paper from Armenia | Lorgnette: the fall of Icarus

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 1st November 2023

The Hamourabbi code (source)

What the war in Gaza (or Sukkot) tells us

To go beyond considerations on the ground about the war in Sukkot (Gaza), we will first try to determine the war aims of each side, before asking ourselves what this war says, a further stage in a re-primitivisation of the contemporary act of war.

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Paper from Armenia

The theatres of war and the ways in which they are waged may change, but the invariants of strategy can be observed in all theatres, and there is a high price to pay for neglecting them, whatever the mode of action chosen. Armenia has bitterly rediscovered them because it did not respect them.

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Lorgnette: the fall of Icarus

If you fly too close to the sun, you risk burning your wings and falling into the abyss…

This is what the various dignitaries of the Chinese Communist Party or officials of the State apparatus experience on a regular basis, and when they fall from grace for whatever reason – which is never made public – they are invariably accused of “acts of corruption” and stripped of their professional positions and social standing.

However, the Chinese regime has done particularly well this year, dismissing its foreign affairs and defence ministers one after the other and making them disappear both literally and figuratively (damnatio memoriae by removing all references to them from government websites). The first, Qin Gang, has been missing since 25 June, the second, Li Shangfu, since 29 August. They had been sworn in in March of the same year.

These ruthless purges, while reminiscent of Mao, have rarely been so close to Xi Jingping’s entourage, and are both Stalinist in their implacability and Orwellian in their radicalism.

Still, it’s good to live in the West.

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JOVPN

 

LV 226: Near and Middle East: stabilisation or future crises in sight? | Prudence and strategy | Lorgnette: Elections in Moldova

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 4 October 2023

 

Near and Middle East: stabilisation or future crises in sight?

The recompositions underway in the Middle East, between Syria’s normalisation of its international position, the safeguarding of Turkish influence in the Caucasus and the re-establishment of Saudi Arabia-Iran relations under the auspices of Beijing, are tending to safeguard the strategic triangle of Russia, Turkey and Iran to the detriment of American and European influence.

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Prudence and strategy

Prudence has a bad reputation, yet it is a necessary quality for a strategist: discerning, forward-looking and informed by experience, it supports the two strategic principles of freedom of action and adaptation. Is there any need to stress that France should adopt a more cautious strategy than it does today?

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Lorgnette: Elections in Moldova

Last Saturday, Slovaks went to the polls and Robert Fico’s party came out on top with 23% of the vote. It should not be too difficult for him to form a coalition and run the country for the legislature. A populist accused of corruption, he managed to convince voters with a surprising foreign policy line: while Slovakia had consistently supported Ukraine, the new prime minister explained that peace negotiations with Moscow were necessary.

In so doing, he joins Hungary’s Victor Orban, who is also paying lip service to Kiev. It should be noted that these two countries, along with Poland, are at the forefront of the controversy with Kiev over cereals, which led to a row between Warsaw and Kiev a fortnight ago. The Visegrad group (which also includes the Czech Republic, which remains a loyal supporter of Ukraine) brings together Central European countries that exemplify what some observers describe as illiberalism.

Yet the question they raise is not simply that of Ukraine and its relationship with Moscow, but also that of European balances. While some were congratulating themselves on European solidarity 18 months ago, it is about to be sorely tested.

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JONVP

LV 220: The current strategic project | Aviation news | Lorgnette : Italian genrations

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 21 June 2023

Source : https://www.turgisetgaillard.fr/

The current strategic project

On the eve of summer, there are numerous meetings and consultations in a variety of formats between operators around the world who are repositioning themselves. They are all looking ahead to the new strategic era ushered in last year by the war in Ukraine. The result is a major strategic project on multiple fronts, paving the way for a multi-faceted international society with new dividing lines.

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Aviation news

In the wake of the war in Ukraine, the Paris Air Show provides an opportunity to take a look at some of the latest developments in the air: the tactical and strategic lessons to be learned, as well as the technical dimensions and the programmatic and industrial challenges.

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Lorgnette: Italian generations

Silvio Berlusconi is dead: his death has given rise to a great deal of media coverage tinged with a kind of nostalgia. The man with the permanent smile transformed politics, turning it into a communications tool. While many saw him as a predecessor to Trump, we should note that he ushered in a devitalisation of political debate in Europe, with the standardisation of ideas and a passion for the ephemeral quip. Is this the end of an era?

Perhaps, if we look at the career of Georgia Meloni, Italy’s current Prime Minister, who hails from the neo-fascist right. She managed not only to get into power but also to stay there. So here we have a politician from the sovereign right who has managed to come to terms with the EU while developing a series of moves, particularly towards the Maghreb: signing a gas contract with Algeria, supporting Tunisia for an IMF loan, insisting on the issue of migration in the Mediterranean. This is something new that we need to pay attention to, especially if we look at the establishment of sovereign parties in Europe (Finland) or their electoral success (Spain). Does Italy herald a lasting trend?

JOCVP

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LV219 (free): An acceptable programming law, in the end | Strategic illusion | Lorgnette : BRICS and NBD

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 7 June 2023

An acceptable Programming law, in the end

Hastily decided and prepared, preceded by a mediocre Strategic Review, the Military Planning Law is nevertheless ambitious, although it is still a catch-up law. The €413 billion will enable us to continue to increase the density of our armed forces without falling into the trap of high intensity, which would be the ultimate goal of any strategy. Measured and balanced, it maintains a prudent coherence.

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Strategic illusion

Any inherited power creates a bubble of illusion into which only its friends and allies, or those it considers to be such, can enter. There is no room for conflict, which leads to the denial of the other as a potential opponent and to the watering down of the vocabulary. The common good no longer exists because only one voice is allowed, and neither does strategy, which is designed to defend it. Is the strategist an endangered species?

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Lorgnette: RBICS and NBD

The recent meeting of BRICS foreign ministers in Cape Town can be read in different ways. The Western media focused on whether V. Putin would be granted diplomatic immunity for this summer’s summit, given that he is the subject of an ICC arrest warrant. Officially, the BRICS have made no secret of their annoyance at the way international society currently operates, and especially at the priority given to the war in Ukraine, while “the plight of the poor is forgotten“.

However, that was not the most important issue: the ministers discussed above all the introduction of a common currency “including how it could protect other member countries from the repercussions of sanctions such as those imposed on Russia” (link). To achieve this, the BRICS will use the New Development Bank (NBD), which will be able to grant loans in local currency. This is clearly a sign of defiance towards the United States and the dollar. Finally, Saudi Arabia was invited to the summit, and some twenty countries want to join the circle. A political convergence is in the process of being built: this is new (see dossier n°9).

JOCVP

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