Europe – La Vigie

LV 253: The turning point in the world | The strategist and his house | Lorgnette: German dominoes

Posted on 14 November 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, 13 NOV 2024

The turning point in the world

The election of Donald Trump marks the end of the pivotal period that began on 24 February 2022 with the launch of the war in Ukraine. It puts an end to the post-Cold War era and ushers in a period when the West is no more. While the first effects will be felt in Eastern Europe and perhaps the Middle East, and the Asian issue will be central, Europe will have to rise above its existential fears to confront the new world disorder.

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The strategist and his house

While all eyes are on the outside world, the strategist must not forget what is happening at home. The importance of a domestic strategy is emphasised here, involving fair laws, trained and controlled forces of law and order, a good economy and, above all, an effort to train the national and local elites in domestic strategy.

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Lorgnette: German dominoes

Even if the President of the United States remains the President of his own country and not of ours, which should make it possible to dispassionately inform ourselves about the electoral campaign on the other side of the Atlantic, the fact remains that the last election is likely to have a major domino effect.

The first domino is Germany.

German society was quite stunned by Trump’s victory, with some journalists still mistaking their desires for reality. However, the unimaginable did take shape, with a twofold observation: Germany was going to have to take matters into its own hands and provide a greater proportion of its own defence, without any automatic American guarantee, F-35 docking notwithstanding; secondly, the first observation had already been made when Trump first won the election, i.e. eight years ago. What has happened in those eight years? Not much, really, apart from much more difficult conditions (insecurity in Eastern Europe, the end of cheap energy). And as no one considers that the current Chancellor, O. Scholz, has the shoulders to firmly lead the country, the government is in the process of falling.

What will the next dominoes be?

JOVPN

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LV 252 : Will the Netherlands stay ? | BRICS+ or the anti-West | Lorgnette : forgotten Sudan

Posted on 30 October 202430 October 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 30 OCT 2024

Will the Netherlands stay?

As the final stage in our tour of France’s land borders, let’s take a look at the Netherlands, which France borders in the West Indies on the island of Saint Martin. Although this old European country is naturally turned towards the overseas territories – today the United Kingdom and the United States – it is nonetheless extremely pragmatic, which opens up interesting possibilities for cooperation for France, just as the Netherlands is multiplying international cooperation in the military field.

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BRICS+ or the anti-West

The BRICS+ meeting in Kazan does not simply reveal a more or less isolated Russia. This meeting of the recalcitrant bears witness to a certain disenchantment with the West, not necessarily hostility. Finally, the building blocks of a de-dollarisation movement have been put in place.

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Lorgnette: Forgotten Sudan

Since April 2023, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary militia led by General Hemetti, have been fighting a civil war against General Abdel al-Buhran’s Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The RSF are backed by the United Arab Emirates, and Chad, while the SAF are now supported by Russia (which had once backed the RSF via Wagner), Egypt and Turkey, as well as Iran and Qatar.

While the RSF, heirs to the Janjaweed militias, had taken control of a large part of the country (west and south), in recent weeks the RSF (which holds the east, north and Port Sudan) has had some success, even though the capital Khartoum remains in rebel hands.

The human toll is catastrophic: 10 million people displaced and 150,000 civilians killed. In addition to the war (and numerous war crimes), famine and floods (a dam has burst, for example) are compounding the calamities and suffering.

These tragedies are not attracting the interest of international public opinion, which is currently focused on two subjects: the American elections and the war in the Middle East. Even Ukraine has lost its appeal. So it’s hardly surprising that Sudan has been forgotten.

JOVPN

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LV 249 : Global turmoil | Dividing up the world | Lorgnette : Trouble at the commission

Posted on 18 September 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 18 September 2024

Global turmoil

After an overview of the summer’s turbulent international scene (despite the Olympic truce), the conclusion is clear: the world is facing global turmoil, which reflects both the disarray of Westerners who see their domination crumbling and the blurred situation from which no clear perspective has yet emerged.

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Dividing up the world

The world was first divided in 1494 with the Treaty of Tordesillas. Since then, globalization has taken place one after the other, mainly by sea, as the planet has been slowly reorganized. The Portuguese example is still alive today: let’s emulate the ten qualities that enabled it to develop a clear strategic intent.

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Lorgnette : Trouble at the commission

The recent European elections provided an opportunity to renew the Commission. Bargaining was going well. But whereas they are usually discreet, this time they are making a lot of noise. Already in the first half of the year, many people were speaking out against the reappointment of Ursula von Der Leyen. They criticized her for often interfering in matters that were none of her business, and for living in an ivory tower without giving anything away or even listening to dissenting voices. Unfortunately, coming from the EPP, the conservative political group that had maintained its positions in the European Parliament, and being German with a weakened France, she was chosen. The final negotiation remained: the Commissioners.

She refused to reappoint Thierry Breton. Admittedly, the Frenchman was able to provoke, but relations were at their worst: an eternal dispute between the German and French characters. The Élysée immediately appointed Stéphane Séjourné, the very unconvincing Minister of Foreign Affairs, apparently in exchange for a higher post.

The incident may seem insignificant, but it is indicative of France’s loss of influence: as well as being an inconvenient character, it is also indicative of a real weakening. This is all the more worrying at a time when Europe seems disarmed in the face of the world.

JOVPN

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LV 247: The risks of nuclear counter-shouldering | European disarray | Summer readings

Posted on 24 July 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie dated 24th July 2024

The risks of nuclear counter-shouldering

The concept of a shoulder-to-shoulder link between conventional forces and nuclear deterrence has been part of the French strategic debate since 2020. However, in order to be relevant, a strict separation between nuclear and conventional forces must be maintained on both sides. The development by the main competitors of low-power nuclear weapons that can be carried by cruise missiles or anti-ship missiles is leading to a progressive blurring of the distinction between these categories, rendering the shoulder shield as hitherto conceived ineffective.

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European disarray

The recent elections to the European Parliament and in the United Kingdom have not led to a profound reconsideration of the dynamics, despite the growing political fragmentation. Basically, this democratic exercise conceals neither Europe’s powerlessness nor the disarray that is emerging. The European Union is being ‘continued’ despiteof anything better, unable to adapt to the geopolitical whirlwind.

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Summer reading

A number of reading notes for this summer. See Main article here.

JOVPN

Photo credit: https://lefrenchdebat.fr/lunion-europeenne-et-ses-institutions/

LV 245: Hungary: a European laboratory | Brazil, the future belongs to it | Lorgnette: The Channel that unites

Posted on 25 June 202425 June 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 26 June 2024

Hungary: a European laboratory

Hungary was for a long time disputed by the Austrians and the Ottomans. Barely independent, the Treaty of Trianon cut off two-thirds of its territory. Thirty years later, it came under Soviet control. These historical vicissitudes largely explain V. Orbán’s domestic success. Access to freedom since 1989, through the EU and NATO, must not contradict the need to regain sovereignty. This is the main reason for the Hungarian leader’s illiberalism.

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Brazil, the future belongs to it

The tour of France’s neighbours on land continues overseas, this time looking at the country with which we share the longest border: Brazil. This gigantic country with so many resources remains internally fractured, which is hampering its development. Its military resources are not yet equal to its global standing, but Brazil’s non-Western approach to international relations probably represents the future.

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Lorgnette: The Channel that unites

France and the United Kingdom share similar destinies. Both countries are due to elect their National Assemblies in a few days’ time (July 5 in London, July 7 in Paris) following sudden and surprising dissolutions. In both cases, the incumbent majority is expected to give way to the opposition. Labour is favoured in the United Kingdom, while uncertainty remains in the Republic, where the choice is between a more or less clear majority and an ungovernable chamber.

In the case of the United Kingdom, the changeover comes at the end of a fairly long sequence: that of a Conservative government under Mr Cameron with fairly tough reforms, culminating in an unexpected Brexit (2016), the results of which, eight years on, are pitiful. The country has stagnated, while the provinces have sunk into poverty and inequality.

In the case of France, there has been one crisis after another since 2015: jihadist attacks, yellow jackets, Covid, pension reforms, revolt in the suburbs, riots in New Caledonia. Despite economic indicators that aren’t so bad, the feeling of a fractured and disintegrating society explains the recent vote of rejection.

Here, democratic breathing space is needed to catch our breath. The two sides of the Channel are thus coming together.

JOVPN

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LV 244 (free): Extended Mediterranean: Italy’s ambitions beyond Europe | Grand strategy in disarray | Lorgnette: Indian elections

Posted on 12 June 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 12th June 2024

Extended Mediterranean: Italy’s ambitions beyond Europe (LV 244) (free)

Since 2022, Italy has decided to adopt a new strategic positioning in an area stretching from the Gulf of Guinea to the north-western Indian Ocean, which it calls the “extended Mediterranean”. This cross-cutting vision, which includes diplomatic and economic as well as military and security aspects, underlines Rome’s ambitions for a southern flank of NATO and the EU that has too often been neglected. In support of this strategy, Italy is also developing a strong naval base, centred on a major upgrade of capabilities and spectacular growth in volumes, making it an essential partner for France, particularly in the Indo-Pacific.

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Grand strategy in disarray (LV 244) (free)

Grand strategy remains a demanding discipline, combining diagnosis and decision, thought and action. Since its inception, La Vigie has tirelessly explored this method. We note its structural weakening, which reflects the deterioration of political debate. Yet other countries have succeeded in implementing major strategies. If we leave it to the course of events, we will encounter tragedy. Then perhaps grand strategy will be reborn.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette : Indian elections

The elections that have just taken place in India are full of lessons. Narendra Modi did not achieve the triumph he had hoped for, even though his coalition managed to secure a third term in office. Domestic factors played their part: doubts about the Prime Minister’s ultra-Hindu political project, the tarnished aura of a man from the bottom, economic successes (7% growth) that do not redistribute enough (unemployment remains high), and persistent regional disparities.

However, this will give him a free hand internationally to continue his balancing act (LV 240). It will continue to combine its grand strategy: cooperation with the West, notably within the framework of the Quad (United States, Australia, Japan), while benefiting from the indulgence of the Europeans; cooperation with the BRICS and notably Russia, whose oil feeds its economy; pursuit of economic development in support of a globalisation that brings prosperity; attachment to its neighbours in the Indian Ocean; a marked effort towards Africa; maintenance of a degree of tension with China and Pakistan.

What is most remarkable is the decorrelation between domestic political life and foreign policy.

JOVPN

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LV 243: Paris-Warsaw: Prelude or waltz? | A funeral dirge for international law | Lorgnette: the meaning of war

Posted on 29 May 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 29 May 2024

Paris-Warsaw: Prelude or waltz?

Poland has traditionally had difficulties with its two neighbours, Russia and Germany. The war in Ukraine is reshuffling the cards in its strategic equation and prompting it to take an interest in the new French discourse: is this the prelude to a lasting understanding or just a waltz?

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A funeral dirge for international law

The decision by Karim Khan, the ICC prosecutor, to ask for arrest warrants to be issued for Netanyahu and his defence minister has provoked strong reactions in the United States. Based on morality rather than law, they threaten one of the foundations of the international order, justifying in hindsight all the criticism of a law that would only target countries that are not aligned with the United States. If the threats against the ICC materialise, it could be the death knell of international law.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: the meaning of war

Soldiers are starting to write: what was still the exception twenty years ago is now becoming commonplace. But let’s take a look at the themes covered in these works: history, ethics or personal accounts, in most cases. In the latter case, the war is described as an experience. The authors show its violence, its injustice and the trauma it caused. France, for example, has been at war for thirty years without realising it, because its soldiers have been under fire (here).

Of course, the reader is left in awe of the examples given, the underlying heroism, and the moral and psychological dimension of war. But they are also bothered by a major omission, that of the political dimension of war. War is not only the work of those who wage it. War has a cause before it has a meaning. It is the work of a society before it is the work of the men who lead it. War is not war because it is an experience, it is war because it is first and foremost a political object. France was not at war because it did not think of itself as being at war. This is, moreover, the criticism we have regularly levelled at recent external operations in which the enemy was not identified.

This confusion remains embarrassing.

JOVPN

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LV 241 : Raids in the Middle East and the threshold of disuasion | NATO’s decoupling | Lorgnette: 7 years on

Posted on 2 May 20242 May 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 1st May 2024

Raids in the Middle East and the threshold of disuasion

The reciprocal attack by Iran and Israel in April was the first direct aggression against the Hebrew state for decades: a threshold of escalation has been crossed. But it pits two powers on the nuclear threshold against each other: does the classic grammar of deterrence still apply?

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NATO’s decoupling

The entry of the first Russian troops into Ukraine prompted NATO member states to support the invaded country. European voices then proclaimed that the Alliance was being strengthened, as evidenced by the accession of Sweden and Finland. However, decoupling mechanisms (not just transatlantic) are at work, threatening the Alliance’s very survival.

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Lorgnette: 7 years on

7 years after the 1st speech at the Sorbonne (LV 107), 3 pages of text later, where does France and Europe stand? A list of successes, still implacable observations, progress to be made, incentives to build the European pillar of the Alliance, to implement common strategies, to apply the strategic compass, to rethink energy and agricultural policies, to use France’s nuclear weapons to protect Europe…

There’s nothing fundamentally new here, apart from the fact that we can guess at the impact of farmers’ protests against rising energy prices. We have already dealt with these issues in a previous issue (LV 237), which gives this speech a surprising tone. Can we keep repeating the same observations and the same proposals, betting on our listeners’ amnesia? Some of the German press echoed this perplexity, while French columnists did not hesitate to evoke a “strategic rupture”… Europe is thus at a turning point in the face of uninhibited powers, the risk of falling behind, and the battle of the imagination. “I have come to talk to you about Europe”, he said 7 years ago.

What if we were now to take action?

JOVPN

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LV 236: Italian twin | Ukrain : two years on | Lorgnette : the return of war

Posted on 23 February 202423 February 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie dated 21 FEB 2024

Italian twin

La Vigie continues its tour of France’s land borders with a look at Italy. The country has opted for multilateralism, but is currently suffering from a lack of strategic vision at a time when all landmarks are disappearing: France shares this moment of uncertainty, and our interests may well converge.

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Ukraine: two years on

The war in Ukraine began two years ago. After recalling the main phases of the conflict so far, La Vigie takes stock of the situation from the Russians, Ukrainians, Americans, Europeans and French.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: The return of war

In 2023, the number of wars and casualties rose to levels not seen since the end of the Cold War. While the second half of the 20th century saw a decline in the number of wars and armed conflicts, over the last few months these have been on the rise again, both in terms of numbers and victims.

2023 has counted nine major wars around the world, taking place in the Sahel (1,418 deaths in Burkina Faso alone in 2022), Somalia, Sudan (since the start of the war in April 2023, there have been 6 million displaced persons and already 9,000 deaths), Burma, Ukraine (it is plausible that each side could exceed 100,000 deaths, mainly in the military), Gaza, Nigeria, Syria and Yemen, three wars that continue to claim large numbers of victims.

And yet these wars are attracting varied attention: while the French public is interested in Ukraine and, to a lesser extent, Gaza, no one is watching Burma, the African conflicts or Yemen. We should be wary, however, of Western centrism, despite its media power. Finally, with rare exceptions, today’s wars are long. They rarely result in clear-cut victories.

JOVPN

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LV 235 : Portugal or extreme Europe | The EU faced with its contradictions | Lorgnette: the past that won’t go away

Posted on 6 February 2024 by A M

Letter from La Vigie dated 7 FEB 2024

Portugal or extreme Europe

Portugal, this small cape of Europe, appears not only as its extremity but also as its extreme example. Proud of a prestigious history, having dominated large parts of the world that it had to abandon, it is rich to have been. It is a fine European symbol.

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The EU faced with its contradictions

In the run-up to the European elections, and with a change of political leadership in the offing in Brussels, the EU is facing up to the far-reaching consequences of the war in Ukraine, as well as the discontent of many Europeans. Can the word ‘sovereignty’, which has ceased to be taboo, really find a definition in the language of the EU?

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Lorgnette: the past that won’t go away

On Sunday 21 January, almost 1.4 million Germans took to the streets to protest against the rise of the AFD (Alternative für Deutschland), the far-right party that advocates the expulsion not only of immigrants but also of “recent citizens”. The AFD is climbing in the polls, both in the former GDR and in the West.

The issue is not simply the attitude towards a political line but the question of the relationship with the past. For decades, Germany has held back politically because of the guilt it carries and maintains about the Nazi past. However, some members of the AFD have no hesitation in forgetting the past and putting the guilt aside.

Basically, the question posed to Germany is a question posed to the whole of Europe: what balance should be struck between the necessary duty to remember and the equally necessary duty to forget? For while we must not forget the totalitarian excesses and the abominable horrors they directed, radical repentance also appears to be abusive in that it handicaps all action. Writing history has always been a political matter, and it is more so than ever today. Should we always put the past behind us?

JOVPN

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