La Vigie Nr 188 : A difficult awakening | Attrition in Ukraine | Lorgnette : Economic backlash

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Letter from La Vigie dated 16 March 2022

Difficult awakening from a long strategic sleep

Ukraine is the revelation of the strategic sleep of the Euro-Atlantic world seeing a threat suddenly appearing on its doorstep. The outsourcing of defence, the primacy of economic factors, the prevalence of national interest: these are all reasons for this abstention. Does the EU still have a heart for strategy after years of lethargy?

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Attrition in Ukraine

The armed conflict in Ukraine is in its third week of fighting. The strategist observes it from multiple angles: first of all, from a military strategy point of view, with several focuses: the course of operations on the ground, aspects of information warfare, the fate of populations or vital infrastructures. He also broadens his view to other aspects, diplomatic or geopolitical, whether they concern Russia, Europe, America or the rest of the world.

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Lorgnette: economic backlash

The economic sanctions are already causing a chain reaction that we do not yet fully understand. They are occurring in an economic context that was already convalescing from the pandemic from which we had not yet fully recovered. Now, the sanctions against Russia are hitting us and many countries around the world as a backlash.

First and foremost, the hydrocarbon market (oil and gas) is permanently affected. No supplier can replace Russia in the short or medium term, contrary to what some hope. The decisions taken in favour of electricity and against nuclear power are a clear obstacle here. In addition to this rise in costs, the fall in the euro is aggravating inflation.

The situation for cereals (wheat, maize, sunflower, nitrogen fertilisers) is even more worrying, as the sanctions affect Russia, while Ukraine can no longer export (and will soon be unable to sow). Many countries in Africa and Asia are likely to experience a violent food crisis, not to mention our farmers. It is not only Russia that will be affected by the sanctions.

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La Vigie Nr 187 : East from West | War in Ukraine | Nuclear factor (Free reading)

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Letter from La Vigie dated 2 March 2022

East from West

Europe did not define its eastern border because it did not reunify at the end of the Soviet era. Little by little, the new Russia has been sidelined by Europe and the Ukrainian issue has become the cause of Moscow’s recent power grab to demilitarise Kiev. For its part, Kemalist Turkey, which was oriented towards Europe, has given way to a frerist Turkey, which is deployed all over the margins of Europe, Western Asia and Africa. Turkey and Russia are competitors of a European Union that no longer knows how to think about its East, which is also the East of the West.

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War in Ukraine

The war between Russia and Ukraine is attracting a lot of attention. It is appropriate to briefly review its causes, both distant and immediate, and the factors that led V. Putin personally to decide to start it, the goals in the war and the possible aims of the war, and finally the global reactions, both from the Atlantic Alliance and from third countries, especially China.

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Lorgnette: The Nuclear Factor

This crisis obviously has a nuclear dimension. Indeed, the Russian aggression in Ukraine is a conventional war fought in an disymmetric framework (Ukraine cannot win on the ground). It is a change from the asymmetric conflicts we have known for the past two decades, which operated below a certain intensity threshold. In this case, that threshold has been crossed. But it does not only operate in the land, air and sea domains: the other domains of multi-milieu and multi-field operations (M2MC, FR equivalent to MDO) are also open: space, cyber, electromagnetic, cognitive…

In so doing, this conflict raises the question of another threshold, the one that overhangs it and separates it from the nuclear domain. Indeed, physical aggression calls for the mechanics of escalation. This is why V. Putin quickly set this limit by threatening reprisals for any attempt to counter his offensive militarily. The French Foreign Minister replied that the Alliance was also a nuclear alliance. This is a reminder of the rhetoric that defines the grammar of deterrence. It is another sign of a return to a new Cold War in Europe.

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Crédit photo :Ministère de la défense d’Ukraine

La Vigie Nr 186 : African coups | Torn Georgia | Lorgnette : Indonesian opening

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African coups

The recent coups in Mali and Burkina Faso show the disappointment of African elites and populations towards France. This can be explained by a major strategic error, a mixture of good conscience, overuse of the military tool, inappropriate governance manoeuvres and, finally, misunderstood and therefore misimplemented interests. France has disappointed and it is to blame. It must draw the consequences.

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Georgia torn

Georgia is the only country in the Transcaucasus that is open to the West, to the Black Sea, to Europe. The country is haunted by the demons of conflict with separatist provinces and its complicated relationship with Russia. Its attempt at rapprochement with the United States ended in failure, especially militarily, but Georgia has since embarked on a new path towards the European Union. Perhaps this is not a bad idea!

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Lorgnette: Indonesian opening

The recent sale of 42 Rafale fighters to Indonesia is welcome, for obvious industrial reasons. If it is not sure that it favours French defence, it constitutes on the other hand an asset in our foreign policy, in particular in South-East Asia, a more accurate term here than Indo-Pacific. It should also be noted that this sale is accompanied by that of two Scorpene submarines. The AUKUS affront has been repaired (LV 176).

Paradoxically, it may have served its purpose. Indeed, like many countries in the region, Indonesia is careful to maintain a policy of balance between China and the United States, ensuring that it is not too dependent on either. It had been following our strategic and industrial partnership with India with interest, which prompted it to consider our offer carefully. But it is very likely that the Australians’ unilateral decision played a role: by considering that France was not secure enough, Australia proved that, on the contrary, France had a balanced position in the region. This was probably the decisive argument for Jakarta. Thus, in addition to India and Singapore, France obtains a third partner in this South and South-East Asia. Let’s hope it won’t be the last.

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La Vigie Nr 185 : Pioneering Chile | Strategic feverishness | Lorgnette : Lebanese impasse

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Letter from La Vigie dated 2 Feb 2022

Pioneering Chile

Chile, this country at the end of the world, is first and foremost determined by its geography. Isolated, it is at once American, Oceanic and Antarctic. It has an original political experience which is currently undergoing new developments. It is also a stake in the Sino-American rivalry since it has economic exchanges with both countries. Neglected by France, it could nevertheless become a partner in the Pacific.

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Strategic feverishness

The strategic puzzle is becoming more complicated with the crises surrounding Ukraine and Taiwan. The feverishness of the situation reveals the place taken by the irreducible strategic otherness of the US-China rivalry and the strategic ambiguity facilitated by the use of deception and intimidation. What place is there for strategic autonomy in the growing interdependence? For France in Europe, an incentive to hasten a reasonable reunification of the European continent that is overdue.

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Lorgnette: Lebanese impasse

Lebanon continues its national collapse, this time reaching unknown levels of degradation. It had long been living on an illusion, that of a national pact that had its roots in 1943. The 1975 civil war and the rise of Hezbollah, a pseudo-state, had already shattered this mirage. The reality of a clan-based corruption, spreading widely to the lowest levels of society, is the fundamental factor in the decline of the country of the Cedar.

Several shocks have thwarted the illusion of a return to normalcy that some observed in the 2000s: on the one hand, the Syrian civil war that has thrown 1.7 million refugees (25% of a population of 6.8 million) into Lebanon; on the other hand, the Gulf States, traditional supporters of the political class, have stopped their support. The gigantic explosion that hit the port of Beirut in the summer of 2020 showed the king naked and accelerated the implosion of the state.

There follows a long deterioration, first economic and financial, but also legal and soon security. Society is disintegrating, the ultimate stage of state decay. This process, visible in the Middle East as in Africa, marks the end of the Western model of the state.

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La Vigie Nr 184 : Bruised Armenia | Russian-US negotiations | Lorgnette : Deterrence and espionage on the small screen

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Letter from La Vigie dated 19 Jan 2022

Bruised Armenia

While Turkey has just begun negotiations to try to normalise its relations with its neighbour Armenia – having agreed not to mention the “Armenian genocide” for the time being – it is time for us to continue our trans-Caucasian tour of horizon by looking at Armenia. What place does it occupy in the regional balance?

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Russian-US negotiations

European observers have been very alarmed by the risk of war on the borders of Ukraine. What if it was all a bluff, with Putin playing poker this time and cashing in on the bilateral negotiations with the US? Killing any hope of an autonomous European defence.

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Lorgnette : Deterrence and espionage on the small screen

A television co-production between Arte and the BBC, entitled “VIGIL” and currently on air, stands out. It is a short six-part series.

It begins with an investigation into the suspicious death of a sailor aboard a British SSBN in Scottish territorial waters. While the aerial images are of the actual base at Faslane, the SNLE base is renamed ‘Dunloch’.

Sadly, sacrificing to current conventions regarding the heroine’s moods and omitting a few implausibilities, certainly accepted for dramatic reasons, the series’ interest lies in the way it revisits the underwater film ‘genre’, which can quickly prove tiresome. It is not the ground investigation that offers it, but the way in which the nuclear deterrent is approached. Indeed, the huis clos is an SNLE (sous-marin nucléaire lanceur d’engins) and it soon becomes apparent that the very principle of the deterrent posture is at the heart of a scheme.

It is rare enough to bring these serious issues to such an audience (so within the series there are also all sorts of pacifists): this is the great merit of the series.

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La Vigie Nr 183 : From 2021 to 2022: Still uncertain! | Cordial disagreement | Lorgnette : South-African Nobels

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Leter from La Vigie, dated 5 Jan 2022

From 2021 to 2022: Still uncertain!

The year 2022 still looks very uncertain: a banal America, a declining Russia, a tense China, a hesitant Middle East, a stalled Africa and an undecided Europe do not favour major strategic upheavals. The Sino-American rivalry remains the main structuring factor. As for France, we will have to wait for the presidential election to see clearly.

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Cordial disagreement

The year 2021 marked the end of what was intended to be a year of renewed leadership for the UK in world affairs. As 1 January 2022 marked the first anniversary of the effective entry into force of the Brexit, what can we learn from these twelve months? What does this mean for the future of the Franco-British relationship and the normalisation of the relationship between the EU and the UK?

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Lorgnette: South African Nobels

Two South African Nobel Prize winners have just passed away within a month of each other.

Frederik de Klerk, the last white president of South Africa, ended apartheid and organised a peaceful transition to a democratic regime that allowed blacks to take power. He won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1993 with Nelson Mandela. It was he who changed the doctrine of the National Party from 1989 onwards, legalised the black parties and freed Mandela in 1990. The official abolition of apartheid took place in 1991. He died on 11 November 2021.

Desmond Tutu is a black Anglican bishop who, coming from a modest background, preaches reconciliation between peoples. His fight for non-violence earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 1983. He presided over the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, which shed light on many crimes and avoided the confrontation that everyone predicted would follow the change of regime. He did not hesitate to denounce the excesses of Mandela’s successors, notably J. Zuma. He died on 26 December 2021.

Two good men who will be missed by South Africa, which is currently experiencing a lot of turmoil. May their successors be up to the task.

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La Vigie Nr 182 : France and the full strategic exercise | New Caledonia: what now? | Lorgnette: sustainable coexistence

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Letter from La Vigie dated 22nd Dec 2021

France and the full strategic exercise

To close this year and feed the strategic debate of the presidential elections, here are the four logics that structure the strategic posture of France at the end of 2021: the neighbours, the competitions, the frictions and the cold wars. In the post-Covid world that is opening up, should we keep this outdated 20th century software? Can we explore a new one to enable France in Europe and Europe in the world to propose another point of balance, free from the rivalry between the United States and China? Will the year 2022 be a milestone in France’s strategic history or a reactivation of its previous actions?

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New Caledonia: what now?

The last referendum logically – and legitimately – decided to keep New Caledonia in the French nation. However, there is still a destiny to be built, as the rock remains divided: these divisions resemble many others, including in metropolitan France. Beyond that, it is a Pacific strategy for France that must be built.

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Lorgnette: sustainable coexistence

The experience of peoples forges the social capital that allows them to be governed. America comes from the conquest of the West and prosperity, China from the idealised Tianxia and prescribed harmony, Europe from the banishment of internal struggles after devastating tragedies. The result is three strategic trajectories that are not convergent today, even if an essential model of Western governance is seen as universal. The Asian model is therefore seen as alternative and therefore antagonistic. But what humanity would gain from political unification would deprive it of the pluralism whose richness comes from accepted diversity.

Here is a lesson from Jean Marie Guéhenno’s latest book, “Le premier XXIe siècle” (here) that LV recommends. His groping but rigorous approach denounces the harebrained triumphalism of a democratic West today in a deep identity crisis that is blinded by a Chinese obsession and wants to unify the world. Just as China wanted to take the best of the West to keep the best of China, should the West not take the best of China to save the best of the West, which is assumed pluralism? To be explored and meditated upon.

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La Vigie Nr 181 : On civil war | Azerbaijan in turmoil | Lorgnette : pre-2022 strategic debate

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Letter from La Vigie, December 8, 2021

On civil war

Civil war is a conflict between parties in a constituted political unit. Its causes have varied throughout history, but like external warfare, it contributes powerfully to the constitution of the state (or to its dissolution). Today, it seems much more frequent than external war, even if it seems unlikely in France.

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Azerbaijan in turmoil

One year after the end of the second Nagorno-Karabakh war, sporadic clashes have resumed. Let us begin a cycle of in-depth analysis of the Transcaucasus and start with Azerbaijan, reviewing its delicate game of alliances and its place in the regional balance.

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Lorgnette : pre-2022 strategic debate

The preparation of the 2022 electoral scene continues with new candidates. Preliminary debates focus on issues of purchasing power, immigration and internal security (see above). They address the domestic issues that are crucial in a presidential election. Yet the prospect of the upcoming French presidency of the European Union opens the door to debates on the posture of the European Union and its strategic autonomy in the current world disorder. French arms export successes underline the rearmament of Middle Eastern countries, the volatility of power relations in West Asia (see above) and the ongoing technological competition. The Sino-American rivalry is more about Taiwan than the New Caledonia referendum and France’s interests in the Asia-Pacific.

The debate of the electoral campaign should, however, seriously address the strategic questions of the ambient conflict, France’s military commitments, France’s place in Europe and Europe’s place in the world, and the means to be devoted to the country’s security.

LV is preparing to contribute to this.

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La Vigie Nr 180 : Air and space environments: displaying power | FR CHOD strategic vision | Spain : party of the void

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Letter from La Vigie, November 24, 2021

Air and space environments: displaying power

Air power implies mastering technology, which has led to certain excesses in the thinking of the air and space community that are now being questioned. The need for a return to deployable mass and the contribution of drones seems to be a method for achieving this. But the Franco-German projects (SCAF) are uncertain. Finally, the air environment has logically extended to space which is becoming a demanding environment where challenges abound.

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FR CHOD Strategic Vision

The public launch of the new Chief of Defence Staff’s strategic vision is a good opportunity to give the military a voice to specify their contribution to the country’s security. Three sensitive issues emerge: high intensity confrontation, strategic surprise and the need for a global security policy for France.

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Lorgnette: Spain, party of the void

Contemporary Spain (LV 172) is, like Italy, adept at political innovation. It had invented Podemos, a far-left party. Founded in 2014, it obtained 20% of the vote in 2015 and has participated in a coalition government since 2019. Ciudadanos, a liberal party, originally Catalan, spread throughout Spain from 2014. But these good electoral results of 2015 and 2016 have not been confirmed. These political parties want to get out of the alternative between PSOE, PP and independents.

A new attempt is emerging, that of the Party of Emptiness (España Vaciada: Emptied Spain), formed in September. A poll already promises it 15 deputies. It brings together the neglected territories, neither capital nor rich coastal region (i.e. Catalonia and the Basque Country). They are disconnected from the networks (motorways, TGV, high-speed Internet). They are reminiscent of the Yellow Vests, but above all of the French “Diagonal of Emptiness”, that scarf of underdevelopment crossing the hexagon from the North-East to the South-West.

We must be attentive to this non-ideological but territorial political experiment, bringing together the “somewhere” against the “anywhere”. The return of the local (LV 94) will perhaps be the next surprise.

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La Vigie Nr 179 : France in 2050 | The American question | Lorgnette : Forgotten Bosnia

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Letter from La Vigie dated November 10th 2021

France in 2050

The news is always quick to emphasise the crises of the moment and the seemingly insurmountable challenges: let’s reverse the point of view and consider what assets France has at its disposal to still be what it is in 2050. The picture is less bleak than is often assumed.

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The American question

Trumpism did not disappear after the last presidential election. Just as the Democrats refused to accept Trump’s victory five years ago, the Republicans refuse to accept Biden’s victory. He was badly elected and is struggling to implement his reforms and to unify the Democrats, divided between radicals and conservatives. A defeat in the next elections (mid-term, presidential 2024) is therefore highly likely. A second Trump presidency would deepen the fragmentation of the country.

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Lorgnette: Forgotten Bosnia

Who still remembers Bosnia-Herzegovina? This small country, born in 1995 from the break-up of the former Yugoslavia, has never found a political balance. This meeting between a “Muslim-Croat federation” and a “Republika Srpska” has never worked. It is under the supervision of the European Union, which is no longer interested in it. So we see the Serbian leader gradually acting in favour of separation (and eventually the reunion of the Serbian part with Serbia in Belgrade). The population is talking about a possible return to war.

However, this does not worry the international community, especially Europe, which is content with a black hole in the Balkans and has no prospects to offer. The Union is struggling to promote a negotiated solution between Kosovo and Serbia. It is not even certain that a secession of the Bosnian Serb part would be violent. In fact, some may think that this separation is a logical option and that 25 years later, with the help of fatigue, what was considered inadmissible at the time is admitted. But this would open the Pandora’s box of border rectifications in Europe. Which it does not need.

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