La Vigie Nr 166 : The end of the state ? | Strategic posture of Italia | Lorgnette : Chadian domino

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Letter La Vigie, dated 28 APRIL 2021

The end of the state?

It seems obvious to us that we live in a state. However, modern state organisation is the result of a long process and the contemporary rule of law is not a constant. Today, states are challenged by various means, which weakens and discredits them. How then can the legitimacy of the state be strengthened?

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Italy’s strategic posture

Contemporary Italy, heir to three Romas, is fundamentally Mediterranean and existentially European. These determinants do not prevent it from having a very deep alliance with the United States while maintaining a special relationship with Russia. In Europe, it has a complicated relationship with Germany, the result of centuries of experience. With the Brexit causing a reshuffling of European balances, this is a good time for a rapprochement between Paris and Rome, despite recent frictions and provided France forgets its condescension.

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Lorgnette: Chadian Domino

The violent death (in troubled circumstances) of Idriss Déby, the Chadian president, constitutes a geopolitical earthquake. It is first and foremost an internal one because, as a good despot, he had not prepared his succession. Without even mentioning the representation of popular aspirations, his system will be difficult to perpetuate and should re-launch rivalries between clans. Let’s remember that the conquest of power has always been done by arms, especially by the northern tribes.

But it is above all the regional balance and the French security apparatus that are weakened. In the military system left in Africa after the Cold War, N’Djamena has always occupied a place of choice thanks to its central position. It has been strengthened more than ever following the troubles in the Sahel-Saharan strip that have followed one another over the past decade, and particularly the intervention in Mali. It should be remembered that the headquarters of Operation Barkhane is located in N’Djamena and that the Chadian troops were the only effective ones in the G5 Sahel on which Paris is basing so much hope. By domino effect, all the countries in the region can now fall. This is bad news.

JOCV

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La Vigie Nr 137 : Persistence of Boko Haram | PANG : Oceanic manoeuvre | Lorgnette : Munich security conference

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Letter from La Vigie of 4 March 2020

Persistence of Boko Haram

The (low) French attention for Africa is concentrated on the Sahel-Saharan strip because of Operation Barkhane. However, another jihadist insurrection persists around Lake Chad: Boko Haram remains and has mutated profoundly. Faced with this, the countries in the area have taken vigorous initiatives over the past five years that have made it possible to confine the crisis centre. Why not looking at this example rather than persisting in a Sahelian strategy that has no end in sight?

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PANG: Oceanic Manoeuvre

The project for a new-generation aircraft carrier outlined by the Ministry of the Armed Forces to replace the Charles de Gaulle in 2038 is still only an industrial and technological dossier. It will soon be clarified. But it remains to give it a real strategic dimension as the military pivot of a global oceanic maneuvering and action capability by 2060 capable of protecting France’s interests in the world at that time.

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Lorgnette: Munich Conference 2020

The theme of the latest Munich Security Conference was the Weakening of the West or Westlessness (14-16 Feb.). It confirmed the western anomie.

After the interview with The Economist (Transatlantic Relations, LV 129) and the speech of the Military Academy (Deterrence, LV 136), it completed the President’s strategic vision of an unstable world that is changing dangerously. It had reaffirmed the need for an expanded European strategy and sovereignty that went beyond military issues to encompass standards, technology, infrastructure, communications, AI or neighbourhoods. He noted America’s remoteness, Germany’s rejection of power and the divergences between Europeans while the EU is invisible in the management of crises that affect its security and its values. Among the issues debated in Munich, Syria was not on the agenda, while the humanitarian crisis crystallised differences in priorities and competition between powers, recourse to the economy or migrants as political weapons. Let us hope that the emergency meeting of EU EA ministers will be a salutary awakening.

JOCV

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