La Vigie – English – Page 4 – The bimonthly geostrategic letter

LV 218 : After Bakhmut | Switzerland reserved | World demography

Posted on 24 May 2023 by A M

After Bakhmout

The fall of Bakhmut puts an end to a strategic sequence that began this winter. This small Russian success says nothing about the future of the fighting, but wear and tear and the beginning of public fatigue suggest that discussions are beginning behind the scenes.

To read the article, click here

Switzerland reserved

Continuing our tour of France’s land borders, we take a closer look at Switzerland in this issue. What are its founding myths and why might its original army model interest us in 2023?

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: world demography

Demography rarely makes the news. Yet it is one of the most measured strategic factors, heralding long and predictable trends up to 50 years ahead. Although there is much talk of the digital revolution or global warming, and although globalisation is no longer a popular concept, demography remains a forgotten science that is necessary for building strategies (LV 110).

Now, if Europe is in a phase of accelerated demographic collapse (Italy, Germany, Spain and all the countries of Central and Eastern Europe), the latest figures published show that the world’s population will soon face accelerated ageing. By 2050, there will be fewer births than deaths on the planet. In South Korea, the fertility rate has fallen to 0.8 children per woman. The French population should continue to grow until 2040, but with an increased weight of seniors (1/3 against ¼ today). Beyond social questions (pensions), other issues are looming: what share should be given to immigration, while Africa, a world exception, should see its population double in a few decades? Which soldiers for our armies, which are already struggling to recruit?

JOCVP

Subscribers: click directly on the links to read online or download the pdf issue (here), always with your login/password. New readers: read the article by issue, by clicking on each article (€2.5), or subscribe (discovery subscription €17, annual subscription €70, orga. subscription €300 excl. tax): here, the different options.

Photo crédit: Tobrouk on VisualHunt

LV 217: Peaceful moods in the Arabian Peninsula | Japan’s strategic assertion | Coronation

Posted on 10 May 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 10 May 2023

Peaceful moods in the Arabian Peninsula

The strategic posture of Saudi Arabia has recently evolved a lot, with many factors: personal evolution of MBS, redimensioning of the politico-religious issue, war in Yemen, Iranian rivalry, Middle Eastern environment, oil issue, role attributed to the United States.

To read the article, click here

Japan’s strategic assertion

Japan continues the normalisation of its strategic posture started in 2015 and amplified by the war in Ukraine and the prospects of tension around Taiwan. It is preparing to become a true regional security contractor.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: Coronation

The strong-minded who don’t mind were therefore quick to explain how the coronation of Charles III was an outdated legacy of the past, anachronistic, necessarily out of date. The ‘serious’ newspapers, The Guardian and The Times, found the King sullen, stilted, anxious.

And yet, after the death of Elizabeth II, who had led a transition to modernity and whose death marked the end of a certain twentieth century (LV 200), this coronation marks something both new and very old.

The novelty lies in the modernising touches the king brought to the ceremony. It is better to speak of an update, since the present pomp and circumstance is ultimately a recent invention (see here).

But it is especially important to note the respect of another dimension, going back further, that of the coronation. By definition, it is a unique event, a sacredness of the royal person. Charles III was aware of this and had a hieratic face. This word must mean nothing to strong minds. Yet this dimension was clearly perceptible during the ceremony, a mass in which the king, dressed in liturgical vestments, acquired another state. For from now on, his status precedes the state…

JOCVP

Photo crédit : U.S. Department of State

LV 216: France as a heritage power | Fighting organised crime | Lorgnette : War in Sudan

Posted on 26 April 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 26 APR 2023

France as a heritage power

Controversies about the nature of France’s power continue. Far from its former glory, it is now only an inherited power, managed by expensive and arrogant heirs: it no longer inspires dreams, and the disaffection of its former colonies towards it has spread throughout Europe. Thus appears the real demarcation of the continent: between inherited powers and those who, robbed by the Soviets, have only their future to dream about.

To read the article, click here

Fighting organised crime: a strategic priority

In the event of conflict, the capabilities of deliberately infiltrated agents are often mentioned: espionage, sabotage and subversion are part of their panoply. However, there is a drawback to their use: if they have not been infiltrated early enough, they risk being recognised quickly. On the other hand, organised crime, which has the same range of actions, knows the country and its weaknesses perfectly well, because it takes advantage of them. It is therefore strategic to fight against these criminal organisations in peacetime.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: War in Sudan

Civil war has broken out in Sudan and already civilian casualties are in the hundreds, with evacuations taking place in a chaotic manner as the fighting rages and no ceasefire holds. The country had raised some hopes after a popular revolt that led to the departure of Omar al-Bashir (LV 155). Some people are surprised that these clashes are not between a government and a democratic opposition that is rebelling, but between two forces within the government. Should we see the action of the Russians and their naval base in Port Sudan (LV 123)? That would be giving them too much influence. Is it then ethnic unrest, like that which led to the secession of South Sudan? Or is it religious unrest with Islamists on one side and “pagans” (animists or Christians) on the other? Probably not.Perhaps there are some of these elements, but the background is even crueller: it is the opposition of two similar forces, the RSF (ex janjawid, these tribal militias of Darfur, see post) and the so-called regular armed forces. Two men are fighting for power and if they have foreign support, they want above all to take precedence over the other.

JOCVP

Photo crédit : Hervé S, France on VisualHunt

LV 215: Germany in disarray | The European issue | Lorgnette : Ill Tunisia

Posted on 12 April 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 12 April 2023

Germany in disarray

Year after year, La Vigie studies the evolution of the German question. Chancellor O. Scholz promised a “Zeitenwende” in February 2022, nothing would be the same as before, and behind this catch-all concept, everyone hoped that the situation would improve. What has happened after one year? Let us note that if some profound changes are taking place, notably in the area of defence, German foreign policy has never been so unreadable, apart from being docile to the Americans.

To read the article, click here

The European issue

Paradoxically, Europe has emerged from the war in Ukraine little strengthened, despite last year’s thunderous declarations. It seems to be lined up behind a more fragile and febrile America than before, with the prospect of at least three decades of tensions with its eastern neighbour. At the same time, internal tensions are rising while its external image is deteriorating sharply and it is losing interest in the rest of the world. What was a model in the aftermath of the Cold War now seems to have been singularly depreciated.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: Tunisia ill

Tunisia is sinking into crisis. The hope of the Arab revolts of ten years ago is fading and not reassuring. Ten years of deleterious interplay between political forces and economic decline, not to mention jihadist episodes that have undermined confidence. The election in 2019 of Kaïs Saïed, an inexperienced nationalist, is gradually moving towards an authoritarian system, both to overcome traditional blockages and to serve an obscure policy. The dissolution of the parliament in 2022 followed by the adoption of a new constitution despite a very low turnout was only one step in the political deterioration.

Today, the country is on the verge of insolvency with a huge debt. Spirits are gradually dying down, the president remains inflexible, playing on the support of his Algerian neighbour and advocating economic sovereignty, the reasons for which are hard to see. Wanting to disconnect himself from the West and especially from Europe, he hopes to find external support in China or Russia. But without natural resources, heavily dependent on European tourism and with a long history of European integration, this strategy seems very risky. A worrying stiffening.

JOCVP

Photo crédit : Deutsche Bundesbank

LV 214: The Second 21st Century: An Inventory Essay | The end of the American dream | Lorgnette: street violence

Posted on 28 March 202312 April 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vige, dated 29 March 2023

The Second 21st Century: An Inventory Essay

Here is a first attempt at an inventory of the global governance that prevails after the change of strategic era caused by the Russian aggression in Ukraine. What has disappeared, what remains, what is emerging, what we do not know, the consequences for France … Uncertainties and vigilance

To read the article, click here

The end of the American dream

America has lost its soft power and now only shows its hard power. Disinterested in the world’s margins, no longer able to influence the whole planet, it is pulling its European ally into its anti-China obsession, without seeing that the rest of the world is organising itself without it.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: street violence

The successive demonstrations in France show a level of violence that is increasing. The precedents of the Notre-Dame des Landes ZAD and the Yellow Vests have indeed convinced many radicals that violence can change the course of things these days. The governmental retreats of the past authorise current audacities, which are all the more vivid because political life is sluggish. Whatever the legality of the political representations given by the institutions, the authorities have lost their majesty and therefore the auctoritas that accompanied them, and hence their legitimacy. But the disaffection with political power may go back further, when the 2005 referendum was disavowed two years later by a reform made on the sly.

Let us note that the democratic crisis is general, in Europe (Great Britain, Germany) or elsewhere (huge demonstrations in Israel). Elections do not guarantee democracy. Unfortunately, demonstrations rarely prevail, see the recent examples of Iran (LV 202), Sri Lanka (LV 190) or Algeria (file 11).

Political disorder leads to disorder in the streets. Politics needs to be refounded.

JOCVP

Photo crédit : drburtoni on VisualHunt.com

LV 213 / Africa farewell ! | New nuclear issues | Lorgnette : Arab-Persian deal

Posted on 15 March 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie dated 15 March 2023

Africa farewell!

From the Ouagadougou speech in 2017 to the one in Paris in 2023, one constant appears: the non-existence of France’s African policy. Added to this is the delicate relationship that we see in undiplomatic gestures. Faced with this observation, are we condemned to say: Africa farewell?

To read the article, click here

New nuclear issues

Obsessed with the war in Ukraine, we fail to see the profound strategic changes that are taking place elsewhere, for example in the nuclear field: the end of the ballistic monopoly, the ambiguity of carriers, aggressive sanctuarisation, the death of arms control, the questioning of non-proliferation are all issues that are retroacting on the European theatre.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: Arab-Persian deal

The recent announcement of an Iranian-Saudi agreement, concluded under the auspices of China, sounded like a thunderclap. Arabia had been announcing for some time that it wanted to break away from the Quincy Pact (LV 205). It did not sign the Abrahamic agreements between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain and the recent Israeli stiffening should not reassure it. As for Iran, the continuation of uranium enrichment despite sanctions and the JCPOA negotiations, the agreement with Russia and the recent popular discontent favour a change in strategic posture.

The agreement gives the impression of a simple restoration of diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Tehran. It seems to include a security dimension, the implementation of which will be seen in Yemen, where the Saudis seem to be negotiating while the UAE and the Americans are refusing. Basically, Arabia seems to want to diversify its sources of security and no longer relies solely on the United States. Washington, which has lost interest in the Middle East, is thus paying for its abstention and loss of credit. As for China, it has two of the main suppliers of hydrocarbons: that is enough for it.

The puzzle is moving in the region…

JOCVP

LV 212: Lost illusions | Luxembourg outside the walls | Lorgnette : One year of war

Posted on 1 March 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie dated 1st March 2023

Lost illusions

France’s foreign policy is facing a field of ruins: all European ambitions are shattered by the realignment caused by the war in Ukraine, our situation in Africa is devastated, our ambitions in the wider world are confused and misunderstood. So this is the perfect time to stop talking out of turn, to reflect and to choose.

To read the article, click here

Luxembourg outside the walls

Let’s continue the tour of the French marches by studying its land neighbours, this time the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. How is it that a country with no strategic depth has managed to have the highest gross domestic product per capita in the world and to be a key player in Europe? Thanks to an influence strategy of extraterritoriality.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: One year of war

The end of February marked one year of war in Ukraine, or more precisely nine if we consider the beginning of the conflict in 2014. But the intensity, the harshness, the length of the fighting and the breadth of the front make it an exceptional war and a mostly industrial war, both classic and contemporary. We have described it at length on our site, whether in our articles or in the weekly situation reports, but also in the book War in Ukraine published in November (here).

But this war can still last. We do not believe in the victory of one of the two, so much so that this term is a misleading word (LV 208). Given the progress made here and there and the tenacity of the parties, this is a war that is not frozen, the outcome of which is still undetermined. The longer the conflict goes on, the less possible it seems that negotiations on an equal footing are possible, as neither of the two belligerents is willing to settle their losses with a bad compromise. The consequences of the war would be long-lasting: a thorn in Europe’s side for decades to come. In addition to the losses, the wounded and the injured, in addition to the massive destruction, it is a European balance that must be rebuilt as quickly as possible.

JOCVP

Photo credit: *rboed* on Visualhunt

LV 211 : South Korea: the nuclear temptation | Europe’s Ukrainian spiral | Lorgnette : balloon hunting

Posted on 14 February 202314 February 2023 by A M

Letetr from La Vigie dated 15 FEB 2023

South Korea: the nuclear temptation

South Korea is the tenth largest economy in the world but strategically it is heavily dependent on the United States. However, if Europe is interested in Ukraine and Washington is interested in China, the Korean question is becoming more sensitive, with 90 missile tests carried out by Pyongyang. So much so that Seoul is talking very strongly about nuclear capabilities again.

To read the article, click here

Europe’s Ukrainian spiral

One year after the Russian aggression in Ukraine, this article answers the following three questions: How did it come to this? How will it finish? How can we avoid a repeat? It advocates an immediate Russian-Ukrainian strategic pat.

To read the article click here

Lorgnette: balloon hunting

The earthquake in Turkey and Syria has claimed 40,000 lives, but the death toll is expected to double or even triple. The disaster took place in the area bordering the two countries, where the last Syrian opponents, many of them jihadists, have taken refuge under Turkish control. International aid is arriving, but the observer senses a kind of embarrassment, both towards the devious Erdogan and towards the banished Assad. As a result, humanitarian emotion seems to be stifled.

Meanwhile, America is dealing with air balloons and sending its best jets to shoot them down, issuing flight bans, suggesting UFOs… The incredulous observer thinks he is dreaming in front of both amateurism and over-reaction. He has the impression that the American government is reacting like in Hollywood superhero movies, when Mars attacks and you have to do everything to defend yourself. The show is shown to the willing public and the message is simple: the alien is China, the alien to be wary of.

At the same time, articles are multiplying to predict that Ukraine will lose.

As if the media washer were saying: Let’s move on…

JOCVP

Photo credit: U.S. Indo-Pacific Command on VisualHunt

LV 210: There is no magic weapon | Will the rear end hold ? | Lorgnette : Israeli-Palestinian peace process

Posted on 2 February 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 1st FEB 2023

There is no magic weapon

The recent decision by the Europeans and Americans to supply tanks to Ukraine was intended as a show of unity in favour of Kiev. The difficulties in achieving this, and the relief that resulted, show that the issue remains fragile. Above all, it is based on an illusion: that arms alone can change the course of the war, whether by their quality or their quantity. Beyond that, a concern is surreptitiously emerging: is it still about winning or is it now about not losing?

To read the article, click here

Will the rear end hold?

If the fortunes of the weapons mainly decide the fate of a war, it is essential to also worry about the rear: if the combatants develop a certain and indispensable self-sufficiency, this is the result of the efforts made by the rear. The war in Ukraine shows us, however, that the notion of the rear is not as simple as one might think, and that the rear can also have a certain geographical depth.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: Israeli-Palestinian peace process

Recent events in Palestine have once again put the Palestinian question at the heart of the news. While it is likely that everyone will do their best to ignore it, it is important to note that it is still there because no solution has been found. The Abraham Accords promoted by D. Trump explicitly ignored it, organising a peace between Israel and certain Arab countries while agreeing to ignore the Palestinian question. Without going back to the triggering element of this week’s incidents, let us observe that the lukewarmness of international reactions is justified by the assumption that there is a peace process that is taking its course. This is obviously false.

It should be remembered that this is not (despite the use by some of the word terrorism equated with jihadism) a religious issue but a question of national liberation – and therefore of the freedom of peoples to self-determination – and of the political control of a population and of territories by an occupier. This is the original objective of the peace process. That it is obviously not working means that there is no peace. But who draws the conclusions? The EU looks the other way, as it is so quick to agitate for values. It is a sign of its hypocrisy and thus loses its credit.

JOCVP

Photo credit: UNDP Ukraine on Visualhunt

LV 209 : Belgian neighbours and partners | Economics of war, economics of war | Lorgnette: Russian Mountains of the German Army

Posted on 18 January 202318 January 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, 18 January 2023

Full English version accessible here

Belgian neighbours and partners

A new year, a new geographical cycle, this time the land borders of France by looking at its neighbours. Today, we will focus on Belgium, a country that we do not know as well as we think and that has made the radical choice to adopt, via the CaMo partnership, a complete land army model, and not only to buy a few vehicles from the Scorpion range.

To read the article In English, click here

Economics of war, economics of war

Economics plays an important role in war: from building a defence industrial base to imposing sanctions, from mobilising the country for total war to identifying economic targets, warfare entails both an economy of war and an economy in war.

To read the article in English, click here

Lorgnette: Russian Mountains of the German Army

Before February 2022, the chiefs of staff of the German navy and army said that one should understand Putin, the other that the Bundeswehr was on its last legs.

Since the Russian offensive, the chancellor announced (in June) that Germany wanted to have the first European army and to provide it with 100 billion euros.

All these fine words have been shattered by the recent resignation of the German Defence Minister, whose term of office had started badly. Having admitted that her appointment was a surprise, which owed more to parity and party balance than to her knowledge of the subject, she successively promised helmets to the Ukrainians, went on holiday with a Bundeswehr helicopter, failed to calm the debate on the delivery of tanks to the Ukraine and presented wishes that were considered strange, to say the least. Auf wiedersehen, meine Dame.

Two things bring her closer to her compatriot Benedict XVI (cf. LV 208): they did not want this position and gave it up. One point distinguishes them: no one remembers her name anymore. The post is vacant, good luck to the German armies.

JOCVP

Photo credit: Min Def Belge

LV 208: The second 21st century | The words that trap | Lorgnette: Benedict XVI, the last modern

Posted on 4 January 20234 January 2023 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 4 Jan 2023

Happy new year 2023 !

The second 21^st century

The conjunction of the global pandemic and the war in Ukraine has tipped the world into a second 21st century with confusing contours. The unleashed conflictuality is now self-sustaining and the planet of 8 billion inhabitants no longer benefits from the regulators inherited from the 20th century which had allowed us to approach the end of the Cold War in relative safety. This dangerous shift into the strategic jungle seems irreversible. France must take this new strategic reality into account.

To read the article, click here

The words that trap

In strategy and international relations, words count. However, contemporary discourse constantly uses words that are based on past conceptions and that do not help to understand, and therefore to resolve, the conflicts of the moment: war, peace, the law of war, victory, territory, negotiation are the most striking examples.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: Benedict XVI, the last modern

The death of Joseph Ratzinger marks the end of an era. Here is a pope who will have been the last modern.

The progressive intellectual of the post-war period, an influential player in the Second Vatican Council, was gradually transformed into the rigorous guardian of a firm Catholic tradition. Elected Pope without having wanted to be, uncomfortable with the media, he chose the name Benedict in reference to Benedict XV and his attempts at peace during the First World War and to Saint Benedict, patron saint of Europe: a very European Pope, in the end, not very much in tune with the planetary world around him.

He is basically the last modern: he lent his pen to John Paul II for the 1988 encyclical Fides et ratio, which perfectly reflected his rational spirit. He was destabilised by the contemporary, post-modern world, where emotion and media hype predominate over the search for truth. This is why we will remember above all his “renunciation” of the papal state in 2013, leaving the chair of Peter to a successor more at ease with the new conditions of the moment. This intellectual was neither a full-fledged pastor nor a true man of power. A rare example of a man who reached the top without having sought it.

JOCVP

Photo credit : Thomas Hawk on Visualhunt

LV 207: 2022: strategic review | Ukraine war: perspectives | Lorgnette: World cup

Posted on 21 December 2022 by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 21st December

Merry Christmas ! See you in 2023…

2022: strategic review

The past year has seen the collapse of many strategies that lacked depth and were developed at a time when the return of war was not seriously considered. The conflict in Eastern Europe reminds us that strategy is a dialectic of wills using force to resolve their conflict. A revision of strategic thinking is necessary for those who want to remain free.

To read the article, click here

Ukraine war: perspectives

The war in Ukraine shows a stabilisation of the fronts, which may not only be due to bad winter weather but also to the exhaustion of the belligerents. Both sides are trying to build up their strength, both in men and in equipment. But despite their declarations, neither can seriously envisage victory. The time for negotiations has come, without promising anything other than a cease-fire.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: World Cup

The recent World Cup is full of lessons. Let’s start by welcoming Argentina’s victory and France’s improbable but ultimately close-to-success journey. The competition was held in a good atmosphere and the grumblers on both sides were silenced: both the moral teachers who called for a boycott and those who predicted internal dissension after the high-stakes matches, especially against Morocco. Common sense triumphed and a quiet patriotism prevailed.

These sports competitions have a huge virtue: they turn the confrontation and rivalry between nations into a game that is enough to ease most tensions, especially since the opponents are random. A match between the United States and Iran gets attention, but despite the geopolitical background, the confrontation remains benign. Sport makes it possible at little cost (whatever one says about the expenses of the World Cup or the players’ salaries) both to unite nations without pushing them into chauvinistic excesses, and to organise adversities whose outcome is resolved by a simple score.

The pacifying virtue of sport, which distributes happiness and simple emotions.

JOCVP

Photo credit : Fred Ortlip on Visualhunt.com