LV 233 : Outlook for 2024 | A single objective : Victory ! | Lorgnette : 2023, a hot year

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 10 January 2024

Outlook for 2024

On the whole, 2023 was a gloomy year, with wars in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, Burma, the Sahel and Yemen, Burma, and the crises in the Sahel and Yemen), but there were a few  some positive flashes. 2024 offers an uncertain EU, a weakened United States  United States, a Middle East under great strain, Asia following its own course, Africa in turmoil and France undecided.

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A single objective: victory!

The funds allocated to the armed forces are increasing sharply all over the world. Conversely, many operations and wars, especially in the West, have become bogged down or have ultimately failed, in recent years. The questions that arise are: what is the purpose of the army? and how to achieve victory? A re-reading of Clausewitz  would seem a wise way of answering these highly topical questions.

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Lorgnette: 2023, a hot year

Météo-France made this clear in a note published last month:  2023 is the hottest year since the beginning of the pre-industrial era  (1850-1900). It overtakes 2016 and 2020, 2nd and 3rd. The global temperature is 1.4°C above the “normal” average.

Although some regions experienced temperatures below these long-term averages below these long-term averages (for a short time), the global consequences are clear: sea ice has retreated, many regions have experienced record-breaking heat, fires and floods have increased, and species extinction has developed. 2023 will also be one of the warmest years in years to come. We’ll remember it as an almost normal year, compared with the excessive temperature extremes that await us tomorrow.

There are two options for reducing greenhouse gases, the main cause of global warming. responsible for global warming: reduce our production (and therefore consumption of fossil fuels) or to bet on technological solutions that are slow in coming on the scale we need. But we’ll need both if we want to be able to say: “we’ve been hot! “.

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JOVPN

 

LV 230: The Red Sea and its great game | Monaco perched on its rock | Lorgnette: COP 28

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Letter from La Vigie, 29 Nov 2023

The Red Sea and its great game

The Red Sea is a vital artery of international trade, particularly necessary for Europeans, and is subject to local strategic dynamics between neighbouring countries, regional dynamics with neighbouring areas, and global dynamics with the major players (United States, China, Russia) involved to a greater or lesser extent. Only Europe has little interest in the area. Did you say geopolitics?

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Monaco perched on its rock

Let’s continue our tour of France’s terrestrial neighbours by exploring the principality of Monaco. Gradually moving closer to France in search of a protector, it was only when it lost most of its territory that its development could really begin. Today, relations are friendly and cooperative, but France is still very much present, and Monaco’s sovereignty remains relative.

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Lorgnette: COP 28

The next Conference of the Parties (COP) on the environment will open in Dubai on 30 November. It is the continuation of a process launched at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio, bringing together experts and decision-makers every year under the aegis of the United Nations and with the help of experts from the IPCC. It implements the Kyoto Protocol (signed in 1995 and ratified in 2005), which commits the parties involved to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 5%. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to less than 2°C. Last year in Sharm el-Sheikh, a fund was set up to help poor countries affected by climate change.

This year’s challenge is to reduce the use of fossil fuels (coal, gas and oil). But the current strategic climate is not conducive to a binding international agreement. While the EU needs clear commitments to phase out fossil fuels, many countries in the South are still dependent on fossil fuels for their development, whether they produce them or need them.

Alongside the ongoing conflicts and underlying geopolitical struggles, the mechanics of international negotiation are struggling.

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La Vigie Nr 197 : European security 2022 : to the results | The Chinese question | Lorgnette : Heatwave

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Letter from La Vigie, 20th July 2022

European Security 2022: to the results

At the results in mid-2022, the war in Ukraine appears as a major hitch in the trajectory of European security 30 years after the Cold War: a suffering Ukraine, a raw front line in the heart of a continent that is freezing, a postponed European reunification, a Russia that is turning its back on Europe and engaging in new Asian cooperative horizons. France, which cannot be satisfied with this, must retain its freedom of thought and proposal in the face of this strategic discontinuity. This war is first and foremost a question of European security, to be dealt with first and foremost among Europeans. Can we still force Russia to accept a more cooperative framework of cohabitation in Europe through a real and better coordinated strategic containment? It is by answering this question that France will be able to revise its military posture and avoid the anachronistic trap of a massive capability grooming.

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The Chinese question

China is experiencing a sudden economic slowdown, due in large part to a brutal zero-covid policy. This is undermining a system based on successful growth. It affects Beijing’s international posture: less towards the near abroad than the implementation of its global policy. These economic challenges pose political problems that will be at the heart of the next CCP Congress this autumn.

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Lorgnette: Heatwave

What does the recent heatwave in France and Europe tell us? First of all, the reality of climate change, now measurable by everyone, at the level of human experience. The novelty of the current episode lies in its brutality, which makes it a radical departure from the climatic variations that the earth has experienced in the past, which extended over hundreds and thousands of years. The cause is most certainly also human.

It should also be noted that it coincides with the development of globalisation in the 1980s: the emergence of the Third World and the transformation of numerous countries into manufacturing workshops has led to production, trade and consumption. The heat wave is the counterpart of our prosperity. And if China is responsible for 30% of the planet’s greenhouse gases, it is because it produces for the Western consumer.

Symbolically, this heatwave also reflects the political and economic disruption of the world. Wars and conflicts are still raging (Ukraine, Yemen, Sahel) and popular riots are on the rise (Sri Lanka, Panama). Everywhere, the planet is experiencing a heat wave.

This is worrying.

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JOCVP

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LV 136 : Nuclear deterrence : the satus quo | Ecology and strategy | Mali : speaking the truth

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Letter from La Vigie, 19 FEB 2020

Nuclear deterrence: the status quo

An analysis of the nuclear deterrence discourse of the current legislature shows an assumed continuity and a fairly theoretical openness to a European strategic nuclear perspective. One will readily subscribe to this agreed caution. The reactions recorded reveal a rhetoric whose meaning is fading and priority is fading despite the current disorder.

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Ecology and strategy

The preservation of the environment is a global priority, yet it is rarely mentioned by strategists. However, when it comes to managing scarce resources, there is an opposition between a political vision (ecology) and an economic vision (economy), despite the ideological excesses of some. A response to this global problem should logically be multilateral: the American withdrawal from the Paris agreements hinders this approach. Something else must be imagined, all the more so as the strategic factor will weigh more and more heavily in tomorrow’s conflicts, a prospective that must be examined today.

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Lorgnette: Mali: speaking the truth, the end of denial?

By confirming the offer of direct contacts with Iyad Ag Ghali and Amadou Koufa, two emblematic jihadist leaders, IBK, the Malian Head of State transcends the inclusive national dialogue. What does he have to offer?

Probably little, if not a real sharing of political and social views and even local responsibilities. In fact, the military framework has been well renewed: French reinforcement (600 men for Barkhane and G5 Sahel) after the Pau Summit (LV 134), the symbolic and negotiated return to Kidal of an element of the reconstituted Malian army (based on 2/3 of local paramilitaries) on 16 February, the integration into the FAMA of 500 men from the MSA for Menaka and the launch of Maliko, a vast autonomous Malian military operation to reconquer the territory whose eastern theatre covers Gao, Menaka and Kidal.

At the same time, General (ex-captain putschist) Sanogo was released without trial. It is an attempt to bring together all the Malian actors in a Malian military coalition against AW. Al Saharoui (EIGS) designated to all as the terrorist intruder to be eradicated. Then we’ll talk about everything (political, social, religious) But we’re speaking French too. To be seen, up close

JOCV

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LV 133 : Pespective on 2020 | On common goods of humanity | Lognette : Ottoman Libya

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Letter from La Vigie of 8 January 2020

French perspective on 2020: strategic regulation in question

The strategic disruption of the planet continues. In 2020, it could become even more geo-economically unstable. For France, which needs to refocus its strategy and rethink its alliances, this is undoubtedly the time to reassess its external commitments, to exercise strategic restraint and to prioritise efforts on public security and cohesion in order to regain room for manoeuvre.

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The common goods of humanity

Beyond geopolitical or economic issues, it is at a time when multilateralism is experiencing its deepest crisis that it is most needed, particularly to guarantee the sustainable management of the common goods that the planet offers us. Whether we are talking about the environment, the sea and the oceans, exo-atmospheric and cybernetic space or the infinitely small human body, the preservation and exploitation of these goods, which are common to all humankind, require the practice of effective multilateralism so that they may benefit the human species in the long term. The different societies and human generations must also agree to listen to each other before engaging in dialogue.

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Lorgnette: Ottoman Libya

The situation in Libya is experiencing a new wave of uncertainty. While the Tripoli government was showing its limits (that of not governing anything, despite official UN recognition), while Misrata’s militias and their affiliates constituted the last square to oppose the Marshall Haftar, who had launched the final push to conquer Tripoli and reunify the country, helped in this by his Egyptian and Emirati godfathers, not to mention a number of mercenaries, President Erdogan announced that he was going to intervene.

Let us recall the long filiation between Misrata and Turkey to understand that Ankara basically wishes to defend its last point of support in the southern Mediterranean. Turkey remains a Mediterranean power and its neo-Ottomanism recalls its past domination. The fact remains that it is well established in Syria, that its supporters of Idlib are little by little driven out by the Russian-Syrian offensive and that there is a plethora of violent Islamists to be recycled. Ankara will officially send regular troops: let’s bet that the main one will be made up of jihadist séides.

Bad news for Libya and the Sahel!

JOCV

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