La Vigie Nr 194 : India is on its way | Conceptual wavering | Lorgnette : God save the Queen

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 8 June 2022

India is on its way

India is attracting little interest, even though its rank among nations is growing steadily. Its strategy remains marked by its cumbersome neighbours (Pakistan, China), but its tradition of non-alignment makes it resistant to American neo-imperial embroilment. This is an opportunity for France, which is in good agreement with this South Asian power, an agreement that goes beyond signed contracts.

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Conceptual wavering

From strategic compass to strategic concept, there is a general wavering as the war in Ukraine seems to be stalling. It is the moment of the first assessments among the Europeans who are divided on the way to go. It is perhaps also the time for France to question its defence posture, to take its time to find out how to integrate the lessons of the strategic surprises coming from Moscow and Kiev.

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Lorgnette: God save the Queen

The Queen of England has just celebrated her jubilee, the 70th anniversary of her reign. The longevity is understandably surprising, but not as surprising as the popular fervour that has surrounded these celebrations. A silent sovereign, the Queen nevertheless won the support of her subjects thanks to her remarkable demeanour and reserve: who was not impressed by her brief three-minute statement at the time of the Covid pandemic, calling on her compatriots to hold on? It was a change from the lengthy speeches made by other leaders.

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Yet it is not this exemplary role played by an exceptional personality over these 70 years that counts. It is the tribute to the last human being who came close to the political management of the Second World War. It is true that she had no decision-making power at the time, but she already had the awareness of a national mobilisation to resist the enemy.

This memory is still prominent in contemporary England, which cannot be understood if we ignore the pride of having resisted with sweat, blood and tears. Elizabeth II is also a witness to that moment, to that sacred union of the British people. May God keep you!

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La Vigie Nr 183 : From 2021 to 2022: Still uncertain! | Cordial disagreement | Lorgnette : South-African Nobels

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Leter from La Vigie, dated 5 Jan 2022

From 2021 to 2022: Still uncertain!

The year 2022 still looks very uncertain: a banal America, a declining Russia, a tense China, a hesitant Middle East, a stalled Africa and an undecided Europe do not favour major strategic upheavals. The Sino-American rivalry remains the main structuring factor. As for France, we will have to wait for the presidential election to see clearly.

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Cordial disagreement

The year 2021 marked the end of what was intended to be a year of renewed leadership for the UK in world affairs. As 1 January 2022 marked the first anniversary of the effective entry into force of the Brexit, what can we learn from these twelve months? What does this mean for the future of the Franco-British relationship and the normalisation of the relationship between the EU and the UK?

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Lorgnette: South African Nobels

Two South African Nobel Prize winners have just passed away within a month of each other.

Frederik de Klerk, the last white president of South Africa, ended apartheid and organised a peaceful transition to a democratic regime that allowed blacks to take power. He won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1993 with Nelson Mandela. It was he who changed the doctrine of the National Party from 1989 onwards, legalised the black parties and freed Mandela in 1990. The official abolition of apartheid took place in 1991. He died on 11 November 2021.

Desmond Tutu is a black Anglican bishop who, coming from a modest background, preaches reconciliation between peoples. His fight for non-violence earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 1983. He presided over the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, which shed light on many crimes and avoided the confrontation that everyone predicted would follow the change of regime. He did not hesitate to denounce the excesses of Mandela’s successors, notably J. Zuma. He died on 26 December 2021.

Two good men who will be missed by South Africa, which is currently experiencing a lot of turmoil. May their successors be up to the task.

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LV 157 : Assessment of 2020 | Digital maneuvers | Lorgnette : Brexit, eventually

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Letter n° 157 from La Vigie dated 23rd December 2020

AMR 2020: assessment of a year that put the world out of action

In one year a serious health accident overwhelmed the planet and put the whole world out of action. And the year 2020 will enter the list of the great strategic vintages of the century, alongside 1945, 1989 and 2001. Certainly the tensions that presided over the world before the pandemic have subsided, but the strategic situation has changed profoundly, new dialectics are emerging, but no possible balance is in sight on the horizon. Here is an end-of-year review of this extraordinary episode.

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Digital maneuvers

This month of December sees several high-intensity cyber clashes crackle: whether sabotage, subversion or espionage, the powers are clashing in digital space, to a degree rarely known. Cyberspace is indeed in permanent conflict, but below the threshold. However, other confrontations are emerging, this time between States and powers deprived of digital technology: whether in the United States or in the European Union, legal initiatives aim to bring these new operators, with their inordinate means and unknown ambitions, into line.

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Lorgnette: Brexit, finally

Negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union on the modalities of Brexit have frustrated all the envisaged deadlines. We had been told that we could not go beyond October and then November with the cut-off date of 31 December. The two parties went much further, since the agreement has still not been pronounced on 22 December. This is impressive.

On the one hand, one can only admire Boris Johnson who knew how to hide his intention until the end: nobody really knew whether he wanted an agreement or just a pretext to justify a hard Brexit to his public opinion. Perhaps he hadn’t even made up his mind, waiting for the result of the American election to decide. The fact remains that he was able to preserve his freedom of manoeuvre to the end and therefore to constantly weigh on the content of the negotiations.

On the other hand, the strength of the EU is also remarkable. While London had hoped to be able to crack the European bloc, it held out against all odds and withstood British pressure. This shows proven collective nerves that are to be commended. As for Brexit, we shall see in ten years’ time what the real effects will be on both sides.

JOCV

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LV 135 : Europe and the South | Brexit and the end of EU | Coronavirus : Chinese ?

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 5 FEB 2020

Europe and its South

Long regarded as the preserve of southern European countries, the southern Mediterranean shore and its hinterland are now becoming an issue for all European countries, whatever they may be. Only a long-term multilateral strategy will make it possible to resolve the many crises in this region that threaten Europe.

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Brexit and the end of the EU

Brexit thus became law and a country left the European Union for the first time. Admittedly, there are still a few months of negotiations to settle the details of future relations, but the essential points have been said. The EU loses much more than just a 28th of its members: in addition to size (population, GDP) or contribution to the common budget (which will have repercussions on solidarity towards poorer countries, often the latest entrants), it loses a strategic player. While the UK may lose out, the EU sees with its departure the beginning of the end.

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Lorgnette: Coronavirus: Chinese?

The Coronavirus epidemic surprises the observer. As well for its treatment in China, which testifies to the feverishness of the government while the growth rate was ebbing away and that the prior takeover was intended to allow President Xi to better control it. The crisis is generating popular discontent that must be carefully monitored, especially if the power fails to stem the epidemic.

Incidentally, there is a massive movement of quarantines: villages, neighbourhoods, entire cities and even countries, as evidenced by the drastic reduction in relations with China and the closure of borders. We can see here the new phase of globalisation, as we have known it for the last ten years: while trade has increased incredibly (including in diseases), the reaction to the negative effects is closure and local repatriation: here protectionism, there health isolation of a suspect country. The coronavirus is symbolic of geo-economic times and beyond, geopolitical times. Let us hope that this disease is controlled before contaminating everything.

JOCV

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La Vigie Nr 128 : Why Indo-Pacific? – Towards calm in the Middle East – The Lorgnette: The inevitable Brexit

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Letter from La Vigie dated 30 October 2019

Why Indo-Pacific?

In ten years, the term Indo-Pacific (IP) has almost replaced the term Asia-Pacific. What are the reasons for this change in the geographical framework of the main actors’ foreign policies? As the world’s demographic and economic centre of gravity, will the PI become the next challenge in the confrontation between Beijing and Washington or the area of cooperation, freedom and development from which as many people as possible can benefit? To avoid marginalisation, France and Europe must develop a global and coherent vision of the PI accompanied by projects that will concretely meet the expectations of the different sub-regions.

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Towards calm in the Middle East

The Middle East has long been polarized around the Palestinian question and then the jihadist question. From now on, we are in a new phase, initiated before D. Trump came to power. Whether in Turkey, Syria or even Saudi Arabia, policies are changing and one can imagine a region less conflictual than in recent years.

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The Lorgnette: The inevitable Brexit

Very few are able to follow the detours of Euro-British policy around Brexit. However, let us note several things. 1/ The European strategy of blocking Brexit at all costs has failed. It should be noted that the EU was indeed partly responsible for the blockage. Until recently, there was nothing to negotiate. But in the end, the EU negotiated. 2/ Boris Johnson won his bet, contradicting all speculation. Many expected him to seek only a no-deal, but he managed to negotiate, quickly and skilfully, an agreement that was certainly not perfect, which is the hallmark of all agreements. 3/ The British Parliament played an unpleasant role, between persistent blockage and refusal of dissolution: indeed, another of Cameron’s reforms was to introduce a threshold for dissolution, which blocks the system. 4/ The ultimate blockage implemented against BoJo is intended to counter it, not the agreement, which could lead to a no-deal that we were precisely trying to avoid.

Absurdity is indeed a British trait.

But this should not hinder a Brexit that is now inevitable. The result will then have to be assessed in five years or more.

JOCV

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La Vigie Nr 105 : British isolate | Finishing wars | Lorgnette : Cyberpeace

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La Vigie Nr 105, 21 NOV 2018

To read the French version, click here.

British isolate

Maybe the Brexit will take place. First of all, it shows a British representation of the common destiny, ultimately different from Churchill’s usual preference for the open sea. There is a British exceptionalism and above all a pride of English history in the 20th century that largely explains the Brexit decision. It should be noted that this decision raises complicated regional issues (Scotland, Northern Ireland) but that London should find ways to forge fluid alliances, perhaps better suited to the 21st century. The departure of the United Kingdom does not open the door to important developments in terms of European defence and Paris will have an interest in maintaining the “cordial agreement” that succeeded a century ago in bringing the two old nations together.

Finishing wars

Here is a review of some of the recent wars waged by France, whose conclusions have left a deep mark on it or have ended badly for not having been able to establish real lasting peace: the two world wars, the Algerian war, the Cold war, Mali.

Lorgnette : Cyberpeace

 

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