LV 242 : Decentralised Spain | Tenacious internal fragility | Lorgnette: The Ukrainian turn

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Letter frm La Vigie, dated 15th May 2024

Decentralised Spain

A new stage in the rediscovery of France’s neighbours on land: Spain. It is a textbook example of a state where the tension between central government and the regions is critical. This political focus explains its strategic ambition, which bears no comparison with the empire it once was.

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Tenacious internal fragility

After leading to conflicts far away, the attacks of the 2010s brought attention back to the domestic front. But the return of war, particularly in Ukraine, is prompting people to look outside again. Yet the situation at home seems more fragile than ever, as many signs show. We must not forget the home front.

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Lorgnette: The Ukrainian turn

After the failure of the Ukrainian offensive in the summer of 2023, the fighting continued throughout the autumn and winter, with slow Russian pressure which, thanks to a very favourable fire ratio, gradually nibbled away at a few positions and crushed the Ukrainian forces. The symbol was the capture of Avdivka in February 2024 (LV 236), a large suburb of Donetsk where the Ukrainians had been fortifying themselves since 2014.

But after a pause in March, the Russians resumed their push more vigorously from April onwards, whether in Chasiv Yar (a suburb of Bakhmut) or to the west of Avdivka, managing to make clearer progress at a rate of 25km² per week. Since last Friday, in addition to recurring fighting along the entire front, they have launched a major push north of Kharkiv, pushing aside the Ukrainian forces and taking several dozen square kilometres. Ukraine is short of weapons, ammunition and manpower. Western aid remains at a low level and the military situation seems very compromised.

It seems that we are witnessing a military turning point on the ground, even though Moscow has not yet launched all its forces. A turning point is taking place and the words ‘collapse’ are being uttered more and more. Are we close to the end?

JOVPN

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Photo credit: La Moncloa - Gobierno de España on Visualhunt

LV 229: The United States and the new world | Strategic issues for the seabed | Lorgnette: Spanish turmoil

Posted on by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 15 November 2023

 

The United States and the new world

Faced with the upheavals underway, America is redefining its priorities. Despite its domestic political difficulties, and backed by a buoyant economy, it is returning to the Middle East, closing the Ukrainian question and renewing its ties with China. This pragmatism should come as no surprise, but we need to draw the consequences.

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Strategic issues for the seabed

The seabed, whose relatively long-standing exploitation has been facilitated by the implementation of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, is becoming a major strategic territory. With the growth in economic activity and the energy and digital transitions underway, they are home to critical infrastructures that need to be able to monitor them and intervene if necessary.

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Lorgnette: Spanish turmoil

Spanish politics never ceases to surprise us. After a party of vacuums (LV 180), the Catalan question is back (LV 94). Last May, the Left in power (LV 117) suffered a debacle in the local elections. P. Sánchez decided to dissolve the assembly and won his gamble in the July elections, where his party held its own. But to stay in power, he needed to secure a majority, which he could only find among the independentists, particularly the Catalans. This agreement was reached on 9 November in exchange for a highly controversial amnesty law, which allows Catalan leader C. Puigdemont, who has been in exile (on the run) in Brussels since 2017, to return to the country. In 2017, the country experienced one of the worst political crises in its modern history (LV 80).

However, Mr Sánchez did not come out on top, and if he is able to reach this agreement, it is because the right-wing leader, A. Feijóo, was unable to build a coalition. So here we have the PSOE, a weakened party, which only manages to find a coalition in a minority situation by reviving the question of independence.

Unsurprisingly, demonstrations organised by the right have multiplied since the announcement of the agreement. Spain is set for another troubled period.

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JOVPN