LV 250 (free): Enchanted interlude and strategic disenchantment | Should we win the war or prevent it? | Lorgnette: Iran’s dilemma

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Lettre de La Vigie, dated 2 October 2024

Enchanted interlude and strategic disenchantment

During the Olympic and Paralympic Games, France showed the world that it knew how to organise major international and popular events in a sumptuous setting, without any security hiccups. However, the term ‘enchanted interlude’ is surprising: why should day-to-day security be an interlude rather than a permanent feature? How can we ensure safety for all?

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Should we win the war or prevent it?

The war is back: everyone can see it, and the Vigie is constantly analysing it. In recent months, while high-intensity words have taken centre stage, the issue of deterrence has also come back with a vengeance. But is current nuclear regulation enough?

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Lorgnette: Iran’s dilemma

Iran has been accumulating setbacks for some time. Until now, it had managed to operate in the Near and Middle East thanks to a network of allies that enabled it to balance the Saudi opposition on the one hand and the Israeli challenge on the other. The Shiite networks in Iraq, the Syrian support point, the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthis were all effective relays for an influential policy in the region. Despite everything, things were changing. The Abraham Accords had launched an Israeli-Arab reconciliation (LV 217). Teheran responded by reconciling with Riyadh (LV 226).

The attack on 7 October turned the situation upside down by forcing Israel to react and re-establish its conventional deterrent, both in Gaza and against Hezbollah (note). Iran, which was challenged this summer (assassination of the head of Hamas in Teheran), must react but not too forcefully, as it is prey to a domestic fragility that must not be overlooked. On the other hand, it cannot allow the blows dealt by Israel (assassination in Teheran, attack by Hezbollah) to go unanswered. This is the reason for today’s missile strike.

The escalation continues and no one knows where it will lead. The fact remains that Iran is on its own in the region.

To read the appendix to this issue, LV 250 bis, Ten years of La Vigie, click here

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LV 157 : Assessment of 2020 | Digital maneuvers | Lorgnette : Brexit, eventually

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Letter n° 157 from La Vigie dated 23rd December 2020

AMR 2020: assessment of a year that put the world out of action

In one year a serious health accident overwhelmed the planet and put the whole world out of action. And the year 2020 will enter the list of the great strategic vintages of the century, alongside 1945, 1989 and 2001. Certainly the tensions that presided over the world before the pandemic have subsided, but the strategic situation has changed profoundly, new dialectics are emerging, but no possible balance is in sight on the horizon. Here is an end-of-year review of this extraordinary episode.

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Digital maneuvers

This month of December sees several high-intensity cyber clashes crackle: whether sabotage, subversion or espionage, the powers are clashing in digital space, to a degree rarely known. Cyberspace is indeed in permanent conflict, but below the threshold. However, other confrontations are emerging, this time between States and powers deprived of digital technology: whether in the United States or in the European Union, legal initiatives aim to bring these new operators, with their inordinate means and unknown ambitions, into line.

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Lorgnette: Brexit, finally

Negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union on the modalities of Brexit have frustrated all the envisaged deadlines. We had been told that we could not go beyond October and then November with the cut-off date of 31 December. The two parties went much further, since the agreement has still not been pronounced on 22 December. This is impressive.

On the one hand, one can only admire Boris Johnson who knew how to hide his intention until the end: nobody really knew whether he wanted an agreement or just a pretext to justify a hard Brexit to his public opinion. Perhaps he hadn’t even made up his mind, waiting for the result of the American election to decide. The fact remains that he was able to preserve his freedom of manoeuvre to the end and therefore to constantly weigh on the content of the negotiations.

On the other hand, the strength of the EU is also remarkable. While London had hoped to be able to crack the European bloc, it held out against all odds and withstood British pressure. This shows proven collective nerves that are to be commended. As for Brexit, we shall see in ten years’ time what the real effects will be on both sides.

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