LV 259: Rethinking le pré carré | Trump upsets everything | Lorgnette : Predation in Goma

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Rethinking the pré carré

The notion of the ‘pré carré’, which smacks of the 17th century and reminds us of Vauban fortresses, is back! The expansionist ambitions of the new President of the United States have put it back in the spotlight. If the American square is set to grow, then others will follow suit. But what about France? Does it include its overseas territories? Faced with a threat from an ally, we urgently need to get back to strategic work!

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Trump upsets everything

The Trump presidency marks a further stage in the political crisis that has gripped the United States for the last ten years. But the new president has a vision and a programme. He is imposing a new Monroe Doctrine centred on an enlarged America and setting up a new predatory imperialism, hard on allies and soft on adversaries. The allies will have to relearn the grammar of the balance of power with this frenemy.

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Lorgnette: predation in Goma

In Africa, wars come and go, amid general indifference. In addition to the civil war in Sudan, there are some striking developments in eastern DR Congo: the M23 movement, supported and equipped by neighbouring Rwanda, has taken the large city of Goma (800,000 people) in the east of the DRC, despite the Congolese army, armed militias and the UN force MONUSCO.

Eastern DR Congo experienced two ‘Congo wars’ in the 1990s. The protagonists in the current crisis are the same: in addition to Kinshasa, the neighbouring countries (Rwanda and Uganda) are pushing their pawns to take control of the territory.

Two things seem to have changed: firstly, the desire to annex Rwanda is barely concealed and is in line with the predatory movements we are seeing around the world (Crimea, Donbass, Nagorno-Karabakh, Trump’s claims). Secondly, the indulgence enjoyed by P. Kagamé, the Rwandan leader, is reaching its limits: even Great Britain is calling for a reconsideration of its relations with the controversial leader.

Has he gone too far? That would be a first.

JOVPN

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La Vigie Nr 165 : Global Britain | What alliances for France ? | Lorgnette : Europe on a sofa

Posted on by A M

Lettre La Vigie, dated 14 APRIL 2021

Global Britain

Three months after the Brexit came into force, the British government published two documents in March to set out the direction and allocate the resources of a cross-departmental strategy integrating security, defence and development policies with the country’s foreign policy. This exercise enabled the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, to clarify the meaning to be given to the Global Britain concept, which emerged in the aftermath of the referendum sealing the UK’s departure from the EU in 2016. The knowledge of these documents is essential to appreciate the future of a UK/EU relationship to be built and more particularly that to be developed between France and the United Kingdom, linked by common interests, a bilateral security treaty, an alliance within NATO and which, depending on the field, are allies, partners or rivals.

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What alliances for France?

The question of alliances is not so much about who to ally with or against, but about what to ally oneself with. It is true that the institutions inherited from the 20th century remain useful for France, whether it be the UN, the Francophonie, the Atlantic Alliance or the European Union. However, none of them responds to the integral strategy needed in the face of a current conflicts below the threshold. These instruments must therefore be supplemented by other alliances, more fleeting and less structured, but still flexible.

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Lorgnette: Europe on a sofa

The recent meeting between Turkey and European representatives turned into a farce. At the end of the meeting, the President of the Council, Charles Michel, went to sit in an armchair opposite Erdogan, while the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, was left on a sofa.

Commentators were very critical of the Turkish leader, who was suspected of having engineered this bad manners. Then it was Mr Michel who was criticised, accused of machismo. In this case, the fault lies mainly with the EU. Erdogan is accustomed to putting only one chair at his side when he receives a head of state, and he could hardly have put two at the risk of appearing dominated. Moreover, he is currently trying to reconcile himself with the Europeans.

Hierarchically, the President of the Council is above the President of the Commission. One can certainly criticise the European protocol services for not having detected the incident or warned the European leaders. Above all, the Union was wrong to come with two people. It showed its weaknesses and its complicated organisation.

In this case, the Byzantine convolutedness was European, not Turkish.

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photo credit : Bart Heird on Visualhunt.com