LV 255: The air-ballistic sphere | Victorious defeats | Lorgnette: What kind of Syria tomorrow?

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Letter from La Vigie, 11 December 2024

The air-ballistic sphere

The third dimension is now very well furnished, according to observations of the most recent wars: shells, rockets, reconnaissance or strike drones, short or long range, missiles of all types in the atmosphere or ballistic missiles, manoeuvring or not… And of course, aircraft which are losing their primacy as a result. How are the Air Force and the Army jointly having to transform to deal with this new air-ballistic operational sphere?

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Victorious defeats

The French military did not take kindly to the news that Chad and Senegal no longer wanted a French military presence in their country. At a time when the French were trying to do a good job on the ground at a tactical level, this is yet another political and strategic setback. This discrepancy is becoming unbearable, but it’s nothing new: history repeats itself. We urgently need to avoid this for our future commitments.

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Lorgnette: What kind of Syria tomorrow?

The fall of Bashar al-Assad (see post) raises many questions about both its causes and its future consequences. While some see it as the consequence of the 7 October attacks and the Israeli reaction, others point to the fragility of the regime itself, which has never been able to take the initiative and has always withdrawn behind its sponsors, without really helping them. Have Iran and Russia given up on the dictator? Israel and Turkey obviously have an immediate interest in this, even if developments in the country are still very opaque.

This raises another question: is Abu Joulani, the leader of the HTS who has just taken Damascus, sincere? As a former jihadist who has become simply an ‘Islamist’, he has become acceptable. His management of the Idlib pocket has certainly enabled communities to coexist. Similarly, there have been no acts of violence since he took control of the country. But difficulties lie ahead: minorities are likely to clash in a country in ruins where resentments can quickly turn sour. In addition to the internal difficulties, can Joulani accept the de facto dismemberment of Syria between Kurdish isolation and Turkish and Israeli occupation, not to mention the jihadists? Will he have to impose his authority, at the risk of brutality?

JOVPN

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LV 220: The current strategic project | Aviation news | Lorgnette : Italian genrations

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 21 June 2023

Source : https://www.turgisetgaillard.fr/

The current strategic project

On the eve of summer, there are numerous meetings and consultations in a variety of formats between operators around the world who are repositioning themselves. They are all looking ahead to the new strategic era ushered in last year by the war in Ukraine. The result is a major strategic project on multiple fronts, paving the way for a multi-faceted international society with new dividing lines.

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Aviation news

In the wake of the war in Ukraine, the Paris Air Show provides an opportunity to take a look at some of the latest developments in the air: the tactical and strategic lessons to be learned, as well as the technical dimensions and the programmatic and industrial challenges.

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Lorgnette: Italian generations

Silvio Berlusconi is dead: his death has given rise to a great deal of media coverage tinged with a kind of nostalgia. The man with the permanent smile transformed politics, turning it into a communications tool. While many saw him as a predecessor to Trump, we should note that he ushered in a devitalisation of political debate in Europe, with the standardisation of ideas and a passion for the ephemeral quip. Is this the end of an era?

Perhaps, if we look at the career of Georgia Meloni, Italy’s current Prime Minister, who hails from the neo-fascist right. She managed not only to get into power but also to stay there. So here we have a politician from the sovereign right who has managed to come to terms with the EU while developing a series of moves, particularly towards the Maghreb: signing a gas contract with Algeria, supporting Tunisia for an IMF loan, insisting on the issue of migration in the Mediterranean. This is something new that we need to pay attention to, especially if we look at the establishment of sovereign parties in Europe (Finland) or their electoral success (Spain). Does Italy herald a lasting trend?

JOCVP

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LV 163 : The Greek ally | Introduction to multidomain operations | Lorgnette : Senegal in turmoil

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Letter from La Vigie, Dated 17 March 2021

The Greek ally

Since last summer’s tensions in the eastern Mediterranean, France has moved closer to Greece. Greece has settled all its differences with its Balkan neighbours. The deep rivalry with Turkey remains, aggravated by the Cyprus question. The rapprochement with France is logical from Athens’ point of view. For Paris, it will be important to ensure that this is not just a diplomatic coup but a lasting alliance.

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Introduction to multi-domain operations

The synergy of multi-domain military engagements has accelerated since 2014. The development of hybrid strategies, combining military and non-military modes of action, by state and non-state competitors or strategic disruptors, led the United States to structure its approach to multi-domain operations (MDOs) and to solicit its allies. As is the case whenever a new strategic and operational concept emerges, each of them is required to appropriate it before considering a common interoperable and coordinated response. France is preparing for this. The next NATO and EU summits could see the adoption of the first concrete multilateral initiatives.

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Lorgnette: Senegal in turmoil

The events of the last few days in Senegal are worrying. Indeed, the arrest of the main opponent to the government, Ousmane Sonko, triggered a series of bloody riots (a dozen dead, nearly 600 injured). Although the situation has since calmed down, it reveals several trends. First of all, Senegalese democracy, often cited as an example, is not immune to upheaval. We need to remember what happened twenty years ago in Côte d’Ivoire. The president, Macky Sall, remains very ambiguous about a possible third candidacy and has succeeded in eliminating the opposition… except for Ousmane Sonko, who is not from the seraglio. He made a name for himself by coming third in the last presidential election by denouncing corruption but also the French influence.

Now, this anti-French sentiment is spreading throughout the former African pré carré. This is to lend a lot of power to France, but the affair comes at a time when the debate is raging around the Barkhane operation. If minds are focused on the Sahel, it is advisable to remain cautious towards the region’s solid supports. A destabilised Senegal would be very bad news for everyone.

JOCV

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