LV 254: Initiative, escalation and threshold | Is influence really a strategic function? | Lorgnette: The Court and its warrants

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Letter from La Vigie, 27 November 2024

Initiative, escalation and threshold

The use by Ukrainian forces of strike capabilities in the Russian depth on 19 November was almost immediately followed by a Russian response using a ballistic missile system. This sequence demonstrates Moscow’s determination to retain the initiative in the field of escalation and to always be in a position to dictate where the threshold for the use of weapons lies, albeit with ever-diminishing options.

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Is influence really a strategic function?

The last Strategic Review of 2022 elevated influence to the rank of ‘strategic functions’. The concept is not new, and a number of measures had already been put in place. However, the promotion of this function seems to have been the result of the zeitgeist rather than in-depth strategic thinking. Many questions need to be asked if we are to go beyond the mere declaratory effect, which is struggling to convince.

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Lorgnette: The Court and its warrants

On 21 November 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister B. Netanyahu. This is an historic decision, because it undermines the accusation of double standards (LV 232) that had been levelled against the Court and, beyond that, against a justice system that punishes the defeated and the enemies of the West. For a long time, these were African leaders. The indictment of V. Putin in March 2023 showed that a change was possible: but once again, it was an enemy of the Americans and Europeans who was targeted. From this point of view, the indictment of B. Netanyahu constitutes a revolution and gives credibility to the Court, thus rejecting the accusation of two-tier justice.

However, several countries are already opposing this decision, including the United States and Israel, as well as Hungary and Austria. They say that ‘you don’t indict the leaders of a democracy’, but this immediately reintroduces the accusation of double standards, which is becoming increasingly difficult to accept throughout the world.

The French and British leaders reacted with embarrassment, between support for Israel and support for international justice. However, the rule of law and the independence of the judiciary should prevail.

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LV 147 : Media country, real country | To the south | Lorgnette: Ministry of the Sea

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Letter from La Vigie dated 22 July 2020

Media country, real country

Contemporary media are disappointing, caught in the vise of immediacy, emotion and moral indignation. They therefore contribute greatly to the era of “post-truth” and now constitute a disconnected and subjugated class. Worse, they distance political leaders from their long-term mission and reinforce the drift towards polarization, at the risk of radicalization and therefore division. The strategist cannot remain indifferent to this deleterious development.

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To the south

A strategic vacuum has set in in the Mediterranean, which Turkey and Russia have taken advantage of by arbitrating the inextricable Libyan question in their own way. The time has come for the southern Europeans to take the lead and to conduct with their vis-a-vis a truly trans-Mediterranean strategy to preserve their interests and contribute to the development and security of a Southern flank that is carrying risks that are drawing closer together.

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Lorgnette: Ministry of the Sea

After two unsuccessful attempts (81/83 and 88/91), the recent creation of a Ministry of the Sea is raising hopes for a dynamic sector at the service of an overall maritime strategy. France’s maritime assets are well known (LV 145), as are the pitfalls on which the previous ministries ran aground.

The great complexity and cross-cutting nature of maritime issues requires a strong ministerial and political role, building on the achievements, while the stakes and opportunities offered by the oceans are considerable:

  • a common good to be protected, studied and exploited sustainably;
  • economic prosperity and development of our society drawn from our EEZs by an eco-responsible commitment;
  • integration of our maritime sectors, to lead the world in the wake of our blue growth, by building an innovative economic and ecological force (fishing, food, construction, transport, propulsion, marine energies, ports, river sector);
  • guarantee the safety and security of our activities and maritime spaces with regard to international law.

These objectives, taken from the PR’s speech (Montpellier, 3/12/19), are reflected in the remit of the new ministry (15/7/20). May it become, with everyone’s help, the sought-after strategic accelerator.

JOCV

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