LV 256 : 2024, shocks and chaos | EMbarrassments of the law | Lorgnette : Notre-Dame once again

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Letter from LV dated 25th DEC 2024

2024, shocks and chaos

2024 shows a troubled Asia, a troubled Middle East, a confused Africa, a tormented Slavic area, a reshaping America and a chaotic Europe. Looking at elections around the world around the world, LV can see a growing divide between disillusioned voters and increasingly authoritarian systems of government, including in post-democratic countries.

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Embarrassments of the law

While the rule of law is one of the foundations of democracy, the embarrassments into which the law, its interpretation and application plunge leaders into, raises questions about their knowledge and even understanding. Since the purpose of the law is to regulate interactions between people and between institutions, ignorance of it can only can only lead to instability and, a fortiori, disappointment.

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Lorgnette: Notre-Dame once again

Five years ago, the fire at Notre-Dame caused a stir. While it is difficult to speak of the ‘resurrection’ of a building, its ‘recovery’ is good news. This is good news: France is still capable of carrying out major projects (in addition to organising the Olympic Games), thanks in particular to the decisiveness of a leader (General Georgelin) who who knew how to override bureaucratic rigidity.

Lasting and discreet emotion, familiarity, cultural value, architectural prowess, beauty and heritage, but also an emblem of the nation: ‘Notre-Dame ticks almost all the boxes that make a building an emotional heritage’ we wrote (LV 116). The symbol was shared by the powerful people of the world, including D. Trump and E. Musk. Does this mean that France convincing? The same as always, no doubt. Probably less so the management of the moment, despite its willingness to put on a show.

As was the case five years ago, the public rejected the government’s supposed desire to ‘seize the opportunity’ to show off. And we concluded: ‘May the restoration of Notre-Dame put France back on the road to confidence, serenity and the common good’.

JOVPN

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LV 253: The turning point in the world | The strategist and his house | Lorgnette: German dominoes

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Letter from La Vigie, 13 NOV 2024

The turning point in the world

The election of Donald Trump marks the end of the pivotal period that began on 24 February 2022 with the launch of the war in Ukraine. It puts an end to the post-Cold War era and ushers in a period when the West is no more. While the first effects will be felt in Eastern Europe and perhaps the Middle East, and the Asian issue will be central, Europe will have to rise above its existential fears to confront the new world disorder.

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The strategist and his house

While all eyes are on the outside world, the strategist must not forget what is happening at home. The importance of a domestic strategy is emphasised here, involving fair laws, trained and controlled forces of law and order, a good economy and, above all, an effort to train the national and local elites in domestic strategy.

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Lorgnette: German dominoes

Even if the President of the United States remains the President of his own country and not of ours, which should make it possible to dispassionately inform ourselves about the electoral campaign on the other side of the Atlantic, the fact remains that the last election is likely to have a major domino effect.

The first domino is Germany.

German society was quite stunned by Trump’s victory, with some journalists still mistaking their desires for reality. However, the unimaginable did take shape, with a twofold observation: Germany was going to have to take matters into its own hands and provide a greater proportion of its own defence, without any automatic American guarantee, F-35 docking notwithstanding; secondly, the first observation had already been made when Trump first won the election, i.e. eight years ago. What has happened in those eight years? Not much, really, apart from much more difficult conditions (insecurity in Eastern Europe, the end of cheap energy). And as no one considers that the current Chancellor, O. Scholz, has the shoulders to firmly lead the country, the government is in the process of falling.

What will the next dominoes be?

JOVPN

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LV 214: The Second 21st Century: An Inventory Essay | The end of the American dream | Lorgnette: street violence

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Letter from La Vige, dated 29 March 2023

The Second 21st Century: An Inventory Essay

Here is a first attempt at an inventory of the global governance that prevails after the change of strategic era caused by the Russian aggression in Ukraine. What has disappeared, what remains, what is emerging, what we do not know, the consequences for France … Uncertainties and vigilance

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The end of the American dream

America has lost its soft power and now only shows its hard power. Disinterested in the world’s margins, no longer able to influence the whole planet, it is pulling its European ally into its anti-China obsession, without seeing that the rest of the world is organising itself without it.

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Lorgnette: street violence

The successive demonstrations in France show a level of violence that is increasing. The precedents of the Notre-Dame des Landes ZAD and the Yellow Vests have indeed convinced many radicals that violence can change the course of things these days. The governmental retreats of the past authorise current audacities, which are all the more vivid because political life is sluggish. Whatever the legality of the political representations given by the institutions, the authorities have lost their majesty and therefore the auctoritas that accompanied them, and hence their legitimacy. But the disaffection with political power may go back further, when the 2005 referendum was disavowed two years later by a reform made on the sly.

Let us note that the democratic crisis is general, in Europe (Great Britain, Germany) or elsewhere (huge demonstrations in Israel). Elections do not guarantee democracy. Unfortunately, demonstrations rarely prevail, see the recent examples of Iran (LV 202), Sri Lanka (LV 190) or Algeria (file 11).

Political disorder leads to disorder in the streets. Politics needs to be refounded.

JOCVP

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