LV 238: Deterrence and circumvention | Impossible victory | Lorgnette : The implosion of ECOWAS?

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Letter from La Vigie, 20 March 2024

Deterrence and circumvention

The very nature of the war in Ukraine raises questions about the relationship between deterrence and conventional action. The search for a complete integration of military actions, through an approach based on physical environments and immaterial fields, paradoxically offers greater possibilities of circumventing deterrence at the lower end of the spectrum. This question of possible circumvention is becoming increasingly critical for the Atlantic Alliance, with the issues of credibility of resources and solidarity between Allies at stake in the run-up to the American elections.

Impossible victory

Victory may seem an obvious word, but it is fraught with pitfalls because it is so strongly influenced by history and the Western model of war. Yet the conflicts of the post-Cold War era and the most recent wars show how unsuitable this concept is. We need to rethink victory and see it as an illusion: other objectives need to be pursued.

Lorgnette: The implosion of ECOWAS ?

These are difficult times for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This “sub-regional” organisation (as the African jargon puts it) brought together 15 members from West Africa and the Sahel, from Nigeria to Senegal and Niger (but without Mauritania, which left in 2000). Originally an economic organisation, at the end of the 1990s it added a security mission (creation of Ecomog). It tried its hand at crisis mediation (Mali 2013, Gambia 2017). From 2019, its members will be discussing a common currency to replace the CFA franc. In 2017, Morocco and Mauritania asked to join.

But coups d’état from 2021 onwards hampered the process. Mali and Guinea were suspended, followed by Burkina-Faso, while Niger saw its trade transactions excluded and some people spoke of military intervention by the organisation to reinstate President Bazoum. The split became even more pronounced in January 2024, when Burkina, Mali and Niger announced that they were leaving the organisation. The heart of the Sahel is moving away from the Gulf of Guinea. The future is uncertain, as if suspended.

JOVPN

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LV 237: European Deterrence – Economic Sovereignty – Lorgnette : Elections in Iran

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Letter from La Vigie, 6 March 2024

European deterrence

Candidate Trump’s recent comments that American protection in NATO was conditional on a European defence effort have reignited the debate on European deterrence. In the event of a strategic default by the US with regard to its European allies, could the French nuclear force take over to protect EU countries? LV takes a detailed look at this sensitive issue at a time of particularly aggressive pressure from Russia.

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Economic sovereignty

The return to favour of the term sovereignty should not conceal the difficulties it implies: is one sovereign in an area when one does not control all its constituent elements? Does the State have the means to defend the companies it intends to keep sovereign? Can sovereignty ignore the management of companies and their legal form? At a time when the world has changed profoundly, a new understanding of the term sovereignty is needed.

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Lorgnette: Elections in Iran

The Iranian elections took place last Friday and were marked by a record abstention rate (41%), even though the conservatives officially won. To conquer without peril is to triumph without glory. This hostility reflects the country’s disappointment with the results of those in power: aspirations for greater freedom have followed one another with yet another uprising (LV 202) last September after the death of Mahsa Amini, who did not respect the headscarf, an uprising that was once again put down in bloodshed. But economic difficulties are also having an impact (50% inflation).

By appointing the Assembly of Experts, the election is also paving the way for the succession of the “Leader”, Ali Khamenei, who is 88 years old. By locking society down to such an extent, the regime is showing a degree of internal feverishness, despite the fact that its diplomacy is gaining ground, succeeding in renewing relations with Saudi Arabia and avoiding confrontation with Israel while at the same time embodying the camp of refusal. Relations with Russia and China have been strengthened.

So Iran is waiting for the American elections (betting on Trump) and the succession of the Leader. Heaven can wait. So can the Iranian people.

JOVPN

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LV 203: Crisis: a question of morale | Did you say deterrence ? | Lorgnette: stiff China

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Letter from La Vigie Nr 203 dated 26 October 2022

Crisis: a question of morale

We are living in a state of protean crises, which are becoming endless and simultaneous, creating a climate of anxiety. War is a form of crisis and the military are specialists in crisis management and insist on the importance of morale in order to overcome them. Shouldn’t we draw inspiration from the military model to face current crises?

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Did you say deterrence?

President Macron’s statements the other night on deterrence may have been clumsy. However, they bring up the debate on an essential question, renewed by a world nuclear order that is unravelling, from NWBT to the end of the INF treaty, from Ukraine to North Korea. It is high time to get back to the terms of the discussion.

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Lorgnette: Stiff China

As we predicted last summer (LV 197), the Chinese stiffening has been accentuated on the occasion of this 20th Congress of the CCP. Let us remember that in China, power belongs to the party. We saw the humiliating way in which Hu Jintao, the previous leader, was ruthlessly dismissed in front of the world’s television channels, and also the composition of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau, in which only Xi Jinping’s supporters were promoted.

Despite the difficulties, or more likely because of them, the Chinese leadership has chosen to persevere: in its noxious anti-Covid strategy, in the pursuit of an economic policy that has produced disappointing results this year, and in its opposition to Taiwan, which is now enshrined in the CCP charter. This clear hardening accompanies Xi’s unlimited power, designated for a third term.

The hard line can be expected to become more pronounced, both in opposition to the US and in support of V. Putin. Yet the possibility of failure increases the risk of a breakout action in the zone, notably against Taiwan, betting on a weakening US following the mid-terms. Worrying.

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