LV 255: The air-ballistic sphere | Victorious defeats | Lorgnette: What kind of Syria tomorrow?

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Letter from La Vigie, 11 December 2024

The air-ballistic sphere

The third dimension is now very well furnished, according to observations of the most recent wars: shells, rockets, reconnaissance or strike drones, short or long range, missiles of all types in the atmosphere or ballistic missiles, manoeuvring or not… And of course, aircraft which are losing their primacy as a result. How are the Air Force and the Army jointly having to transform to deal with this new air-ballistic operational sphere?

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Victorious defeats

The French military did not take kindly to the news that Chad and Senegal no longer wanted a French military presence in their country. At a time when the French were trying to do a good job on the ground at a tactical level, this is yet another political and strategic setback. This discrepancy is becoming unbearable, but it’s nothing new: history repeats itself. We urgently need to avoid this for our future commitments.

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Lorgnette: What kind of Syria tomorrow?

The fall of Bashar al-Assad (see post) raises many questions about both its causes and its future consequences. While some see it as the consequence of the 7 October attacks and the Israeli reaction, others point to the fragility of the regime itself, which has never been able to take the initiative and has always withdrawn behind its sponsors, without really helping them. Have Iran and Russia given up on the dictator? Israel and Turkey obviously have an immediate interest in this, even if developments in the country are still very opaque.

This raises another question: is Abu Joulani, the leader of the HTS who has just taken Damascus, sincere? As a former jihadist who has become simply an ‘Islamist’, he has become acceptable. His management of the Idlib pocket has certainly enabled communities to coexist. Similarly, there have been no acts of violence since he took control of the country. But difficulties lie ahead: minorities are likely to clash in a country in ruins where resentments can quickly turn sour. In addition to the internal difficulties, can Joulani accept the de facto dismemberment of Syria between Kurdish isolation and Turkish and Israeli occupation, not to mention the jihadists? Will he have to impose his authority, at the risk of brutality?

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LV 220: The current strategic project | Aviation news | Lorgnette : Italian genrations

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 21 June 2023

Source : https://www.turgisetgaillard.fr/

The current strategic project

On the eve of summer, there are numerous meetings and consultations in a variety of formats between operators around the world who are repositioning themselves. They are all looking ahead to the new strategic era ushered in last year by the war in Ukraine. The result is a major strategic project on multiple fronts, paving the way for a multi-faceted international society with new dividing lines.

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Aviation news

In the wake of the war in Ukraine, the Paris Air Show provides an opportunity to take a look at some of the latest developments in the air: the tactical and strategic lessons to be learned, as well as the technical dimensions and the programmatic and industrial challenges.

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Lorgnette: Italian generations

Silvio Berlusconi is dead: his death has given rise to a great deal of media coverage tinged with a kind of nostalgia. The man with the permanent smile transformed politics, turning it into a communications tool. While many saw him as a predecessor to Trump, we should note that he ushered in a devitalisation of political debate in Europe, with the standardisation of ideas and a passion for the ephemeral quip. Is this the end of an era?

Perhaps, if we look at the career of Georgia Meloni, Italy’s current Prime Minister, who hails from the neo-fascist right. She managed not only to get into power but also to stay there. So here we have a politician from the sovereign right who has managed to come to terms with the EU while developing a series of moves, particularly towards the Maghreb: signing a gas contract with Algeria, supporting Tunisia for an IMF loan, insisting on the issue of migration in the Mediterranean. This is something new that we need to pay attention to, especially if we look at the establishment of sovereign parties in Europe (Finland) or their electoral success (Spain). Does Italy herald a lasting trend?

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La Vigie Nr 180 : Air and space environments: displaying power | FR CHOD strategic vision | Spain : party of the void

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Letter from La Vigie, November 24, 2021

Air and space environments: displaying power

Air power implies mastering technology, which has led to certain excesses in the thinking of the air and space community that are now being questioned. The need for a return to deployable mass and the contribution of drones seems to be a method for achieving this. But the Franco-German projects (SCAF) are uncertain. Finally, the air environment has logically extended to space which is becoming a demanding environment where challenges abound.

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FR CHOD Strategic Vision

The public launch of the new Chief of Defence Staff’s strategic vision is a good opportunity to give the military a voice to specify their contribution to the country’s security. Three sensitive issues emerge: high intensity confrontation, strategic surprise and the need for a global security policy for France.

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Lorgnette: Spain, party of the void

Contemporary Spain (LV 172) is, like Italy, adept at political innovation. It had invented Podemos, a far-left party. Founded in 2014, it obtained 20% of the vote in 2015 and has participated in a coalition government since 2019. Ciudadanos, a liberal party, originally Catalan, spread throughout Spain from 2014. But these good electoral results of 2015 and 2016 have not been confirmed. These political parties want to get out of the alternative between PSOE, PP and independents.

A new attempt is emerging, that of the Party of Emptiness (España Vaciada: Emptied Spain), formed in September. A poll already promises it 15 deputies. It brings together the neglected territories, neither capital nor rich coastal region (i.e. Catalonia and the Basque Country). They are disconnected from the networks (motorways, TGV, high-speed Internet). They are reminiscent of the Yellow Vests, but above all of the French “Diagonal of Emptiness”, that scarf of underdevelopment crossing the hexagon from the North-East to the South-West.

We must be attentive to this non-ideological but territorial political experiment, bringing together the “somewhere” against the “anywhere”. The return of the local (LV 94) will perhaps be the next surprise.

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