Letter from La Vigie dated 27 OCtober 2021

Strategic identity of France in 2022

There can be no European autonomy without a prior strategic identity, and no strategic identity without a desire for sovereignty. The time of strategic rivalries is over, it is the time of the 20th century. The time of regulated coexistence could become that of the 21st century. It is up to France to propose in 2022 a European de-alignment and a return to centrality and thus to strategic sovereignty.

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The German question

The German question, born at the beginning of the 19th century, seemed to have been resolved in 1990 with the reunification of the two Germanies. It has simply changed form and one cannot understand the European question without discerning an underlying German question. Its economic power and geographical centrality allow it to exercise a new benign neglect that is not in our interest.

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Lorgnette: Diplomacy is a combat sport

Diplomatic manoeuvres are in fashion. France cannot do without them, either by using them or by paying for them. In the gradation of a diplomatic crisis, the first rung is the summoning of the foreign ambassador to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: this was the recent decision of Algeria (September) and Mali (October), following remarks deemed excessive by President Macron.

The next level is a recall for consultation: this was the case with allied countries: Italy in 2019, Turkey in 2020, the United States and Australia this summer. Algeria has just recalled its ambassador following the president’s remarks on the memorial rent. However, the embassy’s services continue to function.

The next step is to dismiss the ambassador. This is what Belarus decided last week and Turkey this weekend. The next decisions are to close the embassy and then to break off diplomatic relations.

It is clear that this autumn is very active and that France is particularly targeted, which is a sign that it is expressing itself at the risk of displeasing.

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Letter from La Vigie, September 29, 2021

AUKUS: the irremediable defiance

The AUKUS affair is not primarily commercial but fundamentally political. France has not only been fooled but also scorned. This calls into question not only the reliability of our alliances but above all that of the United States whose amateurism is obvious. The consequences are irremediable and France must question many of its certainties, both with regard to the Alliance and above all to the EU. As for the concept of the Indo-Pacific, marked by an obsolete concept of containment of China, it is necessary to quickly move away from it and return to a balanced Asian policy. Finally, be more cunning.

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Maritime environment: what is at stake?

After the “perspectives of the terrestrial environment” for the Army (LV 175), here are the “stakes of the maritime environment” for the French Navy, which finds itself in the wide open spaces of a deployment on the four naval and strategic fronts that fall to it and which require many more resources. An integral maritime strategy for France is emerging as a new ambition for France in the 21st century.

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Lorgnette: Islamist backlash in the Maghreb

The general public does not follow much of what is happening in the Maghreb where, however, significant developments are taking place. For example, in the last Moroccan legislative elections, the local Islamist party (the PJD) largely lost its influence. Whereas yesterday many saw an irremediable progression, here is the sound of its retreat that cannot be attributed to pressure from the Palace alone.

Similarly, the coup de force this summer by Kaïs Saïed (LV 173) marks above all the failure of Ennhadha, the Islamist party that has been part of all governments since the Jasmine Revolution of 2011. Finally, in Algeria, the Islamists are gradually losing their positions and their influence, both with the government and the population.

The Maghreb is thus experiencing a general movement of disaffection towards political Islam. This does not mean that it has disappeared: simply that its dynamic of progress has broken down and that it is considered a marginal option, but certainly no longer inevitable.

However, this does not mean that credible alternatives are emerging. On the contrary, this is a sign of deeply disillusioned populations. This is just as worrying.

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Letter from La Vigie, September 1, 2021 in free reading

Concerns and doubts

At the end of the summer, a deep inner anxiety is emerging in France. It is due to a new generation, the so-called Millennials, but also to a deep geographical fracture of the territory. The ambient malaise goes beyond the question of the health pass and finally awaits a new, homogeneous and coherent domestic strategy, giving meaning to our national community. Far from the declinism of some or simplistic slogans, France’s assets must be mobilised to rebuild cohesion.

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Afghanistan : reason to keep

The withdrawal from Afghanistan was logical and surprises only the candid. It is part of an American continuity that dates back to Obama. It does not constitute a profound decline of the United States which follows its strategic interests of the moment, as it has always done, which should not surprise Europeans.

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Lorgnette: Year in Review and Year 8

Attached is an analytical table of the issues and posts of La Vigie published in the last year.

We have published 118 texts this year, of which 31 were written by external authors: many thanks to our contributors who complement our analyses. This dynamic allows us to broaden our points of view and allows young or experienced authors to express themselves, thus fulfilling the vocation of La Vigie. In addition, we have published 46 additional articles for free reading (in addition to the Lorgnettes, various blog articles). In total, 71 texts can be read without subscription, even if they do not have the coherence sought by the fortnightly letter.

Of the 118 texts, 58 dealt with cross-cutting themes, 60 with specific geographical areas. 28 articles dealt with strategy (general, military or environmental), not to mention those on geopolitics or military deterrence. Let us point out a series on spatial strategy, thanks in particular to our intern, whom we thank here. There are also a few more general considerations (environment, religion, culture), obituaries and reading notes.

Europe has attracted our particular attention (with a series that will be grouped together in a dossier), as well as Africa (Sahel and Maghreb). Asia and the Middle East follow, while the Americas, the Arctic, Central and South Asia and Russia have received little attention.

We are entering our eighth year. More than ever, strategic fluidity is the order of the day and the upcoming economic crisis, the results of the American election or the beginnings of the French presidential campaign will accentuate the difficult high-level reading of our environment. More than ever, we will endeavour to present our analyses to you. We will soon be announcing some changes.

Until then, enjoy your reading… and have a good summer!

Table of publications 2020-2021

The table of publications published by La Vigie in recent months is attached to this issue. You can consult it by downloading the pdf issue here.

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 21th July 2021

The need for foresight

The DNA of the military naturally leads them to foresight and to translate it into action through operational planning procedures. Planning is a virtue and foresight remains more necessary than ever at a time when long-term orientation, a traditionally very Western cultural trait, is being questioned.

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Spanish restraint

Spain is the heir to a long history that began under the Romans, continued through the Visigothic empire before experiencing the long cycle of the Muslim invasion and the Reconquista. At the end of the Middle Ages, a world power was built, combining a European power with the Habsburgs and a colonial power with Latin America. Centuries of long decline and a painful 20th century followed, leaving a democratic Spain in reconstruction, having made a Western choice and more concerned with itself than with its obvious but little used international assets.

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Lorgnette: Olympic Truce

On 23 July the Games of the 32nd Olympiad will open in Tokyo. Restored by Pierre de Coubertin, bringing together every four years the world’s best athletes to compete in a fair joust, celebrating youth, friendship between peoples and the universal values of sport, they usually offer an opportunity for a truce in the development of world tensions and conflicts. This truce should be very brief.

The global politicisation of the Covid-19 pandemic, the virulent rise of nationalist discourses thought to be a thing of the past, the questioning of international law and order, pessimistic editorials heralding the Chaos Games, and the fracturing of most national societies along these lines are among the reasons given. In spite of reinforced health protection measures excluding all spectators from the venues, the Games are expected to attract nearly 4 billion viewers and become the most watched in history. After August 9 and the commemoration of the nuclear holocausts of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, regional geopolitics, usually animated during the summer when Europe is on holiday, will resume its rights.

Long live the athletes and long live Olympism!

JOCV

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 7 July 2021

Providing France with a grand strategy

The discontinuity in the global trajectory caused by the pandemic invites France to rethink the strategic framework of its current action; in the absence of sufficient European coherence, it must adopt a long-term national vision and define the axes of a major long-term strategy for which six key factors to be prioritised and combined are proposed to the reader.

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The games of war and chance

Strategy is too serious a matter not to devote all one’s time to it. Games are an abundant means of doing so. In these times when we are constantly being surprised by our environment, it is time to get serious and finally play.

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Lorgnette: Iran and negotiations

In Iran, Ebrahim Raissi was elected President of the Republic on 19 June, after a soft campaign that resulted in a record abstention, a sign of voter disaffection and perhaps the sidelining of all reformist candidates. The press labelled him an ultraconservative. The system probably selected him first for his ability to maintain: he is conservative in the first sense. The fact remains that this impoverished and corrupt country is suffering from the sanctions imposed by D. Trump and that during his campaign, Mr. Raissi constantly affirmed his desire to obtain the lifting of the sanctions.

This is the subject of the Vienna negotiations, which are the focus of the new US president’s attention (LV 168). So we should not be surprised by the latest IAEA report which states that Iran has “begun the necessary steps to produce enriched uranium metal“. This comes as no surprise to anyone, but it is a good way to put pressure on the Iranian authorities to negotiate.

Thus, a new Iranian leadership seems to be in a position to discuss with the new American leadership. Let’s hope that Mr. Raissi’s conservatism will give way to a fine pragmatism to compromise.

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Letter from La Vigie dated 23 June 2021

Joe Biden’s European campaign

The long experience of J. Biden has allowed the success of a meticulously prepared European tour, satisfying all parties (G7, EU, NATO but also V. Putin) while subordinating them to a more global objective, by means of carefully maintained ambiguities not always perceived by his interlocutors.

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Strategic orientation and synthesis

At a rare moment in history, the need to manage a complicated present is preventing policy makers from devoting the necessary time to finding solutions to tomorrow’s challenges. It is time to reintroduce the long time of reflection and strategy, within the State and society, to enable our country to pull its weight in the Great Game that is being set up. For this, the creation of a National Council for Strategic Orientation and Synthesis appears to be a necessity.

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Lorgnette: France and the Indian Ocean

The Indian Ocean, which is part of the Indo-Pacific, occupies a unique position for France. Bordering on the territory (Reunion, Mayotte, TAAF) and the sea (EEZ), it has both permanent sovereignty military forces and those pre-positioned abroad, by virtue of defence agreements concluded with partner countries (Djibouti, UAE), to ensure the protection of citizens and national interests and to contribute to regional peace and stability. It has strong strategic partnerships such as those with India, Australia and Indonesia.

In 2021, it will hold the annual presidency of the IOC, which brings together Mauritius, the Comoros, Madagascar and the Seychelles, whose recently elected SG is French for four years, as well as the two-year presidency of the Indian Ocean Chiefs of Navy Forum (IONS), whose plenary session will be held in La Reunion from 28 to 30 June. It is also a member of the Indian Ocean Rim Association. As the EU Member State that launched Operation ATALANTA to combat piracy off the coast of Somalia, France has valuable assets to guide the Union’s maritime ambitions during its EU Presidency in 2022.

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 9 June 2021

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What is France?

To say France today is much less obvious and shared than in the past. There are many gaps between generations and populations. Beyond that, it is a common understanding of geography, history and the State, these three pillars of the person France, that seems no longer to be shared. Being aware of this is essential before launching any grand strategy project.

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Staying on course

In such a fluid strategic situation, how do you stay on course? How to conduct an effective manoeuvre? How to get rid of untimely strategic biases? From Europe to Africa, the practice is difficult, the difficulties follow one another and are similar.

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Lorgnette : Tchüss, Angèle

Angela Merkel is leaving office: we won’t miss her. This cold-blooded politician knew how to kill her political rivals. She was excellent at coming to and staying in power, but has been a disappointment since. It is true that her measured, nuanced and ‘proper’ side appealed to the French notable, who was impressed by this Germanic restraint which he took for healthy rigour. And yet… she systematically decided late, always taking the time to let situations rot before giving her opinion. The few times she has allowed herself to be guided by instinct, it has been catastrophic: whether it was the decision to stop nuclear power after Fukushima or the decision to welcome a million migrants in the middle of summer 2015.

Of course, her policies may not be bad for Germany, whose short-term interests and ageing, satisfied rentier ideal she has always preserved. Externally, it was worse. She is presented as pro-European: she was the most Germanolist of German leaders since the war. Worse: not a single French leader noticed.

Tschüss Angèle, we will not miss you.

JOCV

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