La Vigie n° 176 : AUKUS: the irremediable mistrust | Maritime environment: what are the stakes ? | Lorgnette : islamist reflux in the Maghreb

Letter from La Vigie, September 29, 2021

AUKUS: the irremediable defiance

The AUKUS affair is not primarily commercial but fundamentally political. France has not only been fooled but also scorned. This calls into question not only the reliability of our alliances but above all that of the United States whose amateurism is obvious. The consequences are irremediable and France must question many of its certainties, both with regard to the Alliance and above all to the EU. As for the concept of the Indo-Pacific, marked by an obsolete concept of containment of China, it is necessary to quickly move away from it and return to a balanced Asian policy. Finally, be more cunning.

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Maritime environment: what is at stake?

After the “perspectives of the terrestrial environment” for the Army (LV 175), here are the “stakes of the maritime environment” for the French Navy, which finds itself in the wide open spaces of a deployment on the four naval and strategic fronts that fall to it and which require many more resources. An integral maritime strategy for France is emerging as a new ambition for France in the 21st century.

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Lorgnette: Islamist backlash in the Maghreb

The general public does not follow much of what is happening in the Maghreb where, however, significant developments are taking place. For example, in the last Moroccan legislative elections, the local Islamist party (the PJD) largely lost its influence. Whereas yesterday many saw an irremediable progression, here is the sound of its retreat that cannot be attributed to pressure from the Palace alone.

Similarly, the coup de force this summer by Kaïs Saïed (LV 173) marks above all the failure of Ennhadha, the Islamist party that has been part of all governments since the Jasmine Revolution of 2011. Finally, in Algeria, the Islamists are gradually losing their positions and their influence, both with the government and the population.

The Maghreb is thus experiencing a general movement of disaffection towards political Islam. This does not mean that it has disappeared: simply that its dynamic of progress has broken down and that it is considered a marginal option, but certainly no longer inevitable.

However, this does not mean that credible alternatives are emerging. On the contrary, this is a sign of deeply disillusioned populations. This is just as worrying.

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Photo credit: American Embassy in Australia

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