La Vigie letter, dated 12 May 2021
The French security fronts
Of all the fronts on which France is engaged in this period of persistent pandemic, one is an exception, that of internal security. Is this a fate, a challenge, a transition or a threat? The military are worried about it and say so. La Vigie, which has regularly addressed this issue, remembers. If the country comes together to face up collectively, then the proven targeting of France by Islamism will be defeated without the armed forces having to intervene to guarantee public order.
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The high intensity
The chiefs of staff are now talking about a high-intensity war for which we should be prepared again. Yet this seems unlikely, for both strategic and geopolitical reasons. The military chiefs are well aware of this, but insist on it anyway, for valid but indirect reasons. The fact remains that other fields, below the threshold, deserve very close attention. They should not be forgotten because of the high intensity.
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Lorgnette: Afghan withdrawal
President Biden’s decision to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan makes sense. It had tempted B. Obama as well as D. Trump: to take his losses, to note that the mission has not been fulfilled and that the objectives pursued for twenty years have not been achieved. Remember, at the Bonn conference in 2001, the international community committed itself to accompanying Afghanistan in a democratic transition towards prosperity. Although progress has been made in education and even in the economy, the Taliban have won, thanks to the support of neighbouring Pakistan, which has become the real Islamist sponsor of the region, with the support of China.
So what does the future hold? The current Afghan government has a lot to worry about, as it will probably be ousted fairly quickly. The other neighbours will try to keep the mess together: to the north (Central Asian countries and beyond Russia), to the west (Iran) and to the south (India). But it is likely that the country will once again become an epicentre of international jihadism, abandoned to the ‘barbarians’. Will the Pakistani godfather and the Chinese big brother be strong enough to control Kabul? Nothing is less certain.
JOCV
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