LV 221 : Germany’s new security strategy | Croatian crossroads | Lorgnette : Legitimate violence

Letter from La Vigie, dated 5 JULY 2023

Germany’s new security strategy

Last June, Germany published its first-ever national security strategy. Even though the document is obviously general in scope and its concept of “integrated security” is not necessarily convincing, it has the merit of seeking to instil a culture of security in all Germans and to open up a democratic debate. France also has a special place in this strategy.

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Croatian crossroads

Croatia is traditionally seen as a Balkan country, although it also sees itself as a Central European country. A good pupil of the EU and NATO, it is gradually freeing itself from the historical legacy (Austro-Hungarian and Yugoslav) that has long corseted it. The Rafale purchase should encourage France to move closer to the country.

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Lorgnette: Legitimate violence

The recent riots in France have raised the question of violence in politics. It is seen by some as an alternative route when democratic processes are blocked. Thus, many have justified the violence committed during the Gilets jaunes crisis or the pension reform by a so-called democratic deficit. At least in these two cases there was a political background. This does not seem to be the case with the riots that have been shaking the country for the past few days: the observer gets the feeling of gratuitous, anarchic and destructive violence. While there are undoubtedly social, educational, police or judicial motives behind these actions, the violence nonetheless seems crude and lacking in any political objective.

Faced with this, the State must react and ensure public order. This is why lawyers explain that it has a monopoly on legitimate violence. Legitimacy comes from the sovereign people, who delegate to the State the task of organising life in society. The whole issue is that of the violence to be used in response to raw violence. Measuring violence is the way to confirm this legitimacy.

This is certainly a difficult task.

JOCVP

Photo crédit : archer10 (Dennis) on Visualhunt

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La Vigie Nr 179 : France in 2050 | The American question | Lorgnette : Forgotten Bosnia

Letter from La Vigie dated November 10th 2021

France in 2050

The news is always quick to emphasise the crises of the moment and the seemingly insurmountable challenges: let’s reverse the point of view and consider what assets France has at its disposal to still be what it is in 2050. The picture is less bleak than is often assumed.

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The American question

Trumpism did not disappear after the last presidential election. Just as the Democrats refused to accept Trump’s victory five years ago, the Republicans refuse to accept Biden’s victory. He was badly elected and is struggling to implement his reforms and to unify the Democrats, divided between radicals and conservatives. A defeat in the next elections (mid-term, presidential 2024) is therefore highly likely. A second Trump presidency would deepen the fragmentation of the country.

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Lorgnette: Forgotten Bosnia

Who still remembers Bosnia-Herzegovina? This small country, born in 1995 from the break-up of the former Yugoslavia, has never found a political balance. This meeting between a “Muslim-Croat federation” and a “Republika Srpska” has never worked. It is under the supervision of the European Union, which is no longer interested in it. So we see the Serbian leader gradually acting in favour of separation (and eventually the reunion of the Serbian part with Serbia in Belgrade). The population is talking about a possible return to war.

However, this does not worry the international community, especially Europe, which is content with a black hole in the Balkans and has no prospects to offer. The Union is struggling to promote a negotiated solution between Kosovo and Serbia. It is not even certain that a secession of the Bosnian Serb part would be violent. In fact, some may think that this separation is a logical option and that 25 years later, with the help of fatigue, what was considered inadmissible at the time is admitted. But this would open the Pandora’s box of border rectifications in Europe. Which it does not need.

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JOCV

Photo credit : The White House