LV 254: Initiative, escalation and threshold | Is influence really a strategic function? | Lorgnette: The Court and its warrants

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Letter from La Vigie, 27 November 2024

Initiative, escalation and threshold

The use by Ukrainian forces of strike capabilities in the Russian depth on 19 November was almost immediately followed by a Russian response using a ballistic missile system. This sequence demonstrates Moscow’s determination to retain the initiative in the field of escalation and to always be in a position to dictate where the threshold for the use of weapons lies, albeit with ever-diminishing options.

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Is influence really a strategic function?

The last Strategic Review of 2022 elevated influence to the rank of ‘strategic functions’. The concept is not new, and a number of measures had already been put in place. However, the promotion of this function seems to have been the result of the zeitgeist rather than in-depth strategic thinking. Many questions need to be asked if we are to go beyond the mere declaratory effect, which is struggling to convince.

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Lorgnette: The Court and its warrants

On 21 November 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister B. Netanyahu. This is an historic decision, because it undermines the accusation of double standards (LV 232) that had been levelled against the Court and, beyond that, against a justice system that punishes the defeated and the enemies of the West. For a long time, these were African leaders. The indictment of V. Putin in March 2023 showed that a change was possible: but once again, it was an enemy of the Americans and Europeans who was targeted. From this point of view, the indictment of B. Netanyahu constitutes a revolution and gives credibility to the Court, thus rejecting the accusation of two-tier justice.

However, several countries are already opposing this decision, including the United States and Israel, as well as Hungary and Austria. They say that ‘you don’t indict the leaders of a democracy’, but this immediately reintroduces the accusation of double standards, which is becoming increasingly difficult to accept throughout the world.

The French and British leaders reacted with embarrassment, between support for Israel and support for international justice. However, the rule of law and the independence of the judiciary should prevail.

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LV 246 : The dilaborescence of organisations | Scotland, reunited or disunited? | Lorgnette : 75 years

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 10th July 2024

The dilaborescence of organisations

Talking about organisation can be ambiguous, because it suggests that the organisation is itself organised. Recent French examples (Atos, dissolution) show that this is not always the case. Organisations, like civilisations, are mortal (and isn’t a civilisation also a form of organisation?). Some, however, adopt an astonishing behaviour, that of dilaborescence, which is decomposition in small steps.

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Scotland, reunited or disunited?

The British elections on 4 July saw a radical change in Scottish representation, with the pro-independence party giving way to Labour. This is an opportunity to take a closer look at the region and the lessons to be learned from this vote.

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Lorgnette: 75 years

The Atlantic Alliance summit which opens this Wednesday in Washington will, as usual, be presented as a success. Such is the law of the genre, for a NATO summit is a rite whose liturgy serves first and foremost to celebrate an act of faith: that of Article 5 and therefore of collective defence, of “one for all and all for one”, of transatlantic solidarity.

As usual, the declaration will be read carefully by the experts, who will be examining two issues: firstly, the Ukrainian question: Kiev must join the Alliance, of course, but by a bridge (the long view of the Americans or the Germans) or a road (the short view of many Europeans, including France)? Given the political weight of each, it will be a “bridge”.

Secondly, the American question. The Alliance only makes sense if Washington plays ball. Celebrating the 75th anniversary of the treaty in Washington is also part of a staged event, this time a domestic political one: J. Biden is in difficulty in his election campaign and all the allies fear the return of D. Trump, who would block the Alliance even more than he did. In the birthday photos, the smiles will be tense.

JOVPN

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LV 243: Paris-Warsaw: Prelude or waltz? | A funeral dirge for international law | Lorgnette: the meaning of war

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Letter from La Vigie, dated 29 May 2024

Paris-Warsaw: Prelude or waltz?

Poland has traditionally had difficulties with its two neighbours, Russia and Germany. The war in Ukraine is reshuffling the cards in its strategic equation and prompting it to take an interest in the new French discourse: is this the prelude to a lasting understanding or just a waltz?

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A funeral dirge for international law

The decision by Karim Khan, the ICC prosecutor, to ask for arrest warrants to be issued for Netanyahu and his defence minister has provoked strong reactions in the United States. Based on morality rather than law, they threaten one of the foundations of the international order, justifying in hindsight all the criticism of a law that would only target countries that are not aligned with the United States. If the threats against the ICC materialise, it could be the death knell of international law.

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Lorgnette: the meaning of war

Soldiers are starting to write: what was still the exception twenty years ago is now becoming commonplace. But let’s take a look at the themes covered in these works: history, ethics or personal accounts, in most cases. In the latter case, the war is described as an experience. The authors show its violence, its injustice and the trauma it caused. France, for example, has been at war for thirty years without realising it, because its soldiers have been under fire (here).

Of course, the reader is left in awe of the examples given, the underlying heroism, and the moral and psychological dimension of war. But they are also bothered by a major omission, that of the political dimension of war. War is not only the work of those who wage it. War has a cause before it has a meaning. It is the work of a society before it is the work of the men who lead it. War is not war because it is an experience, it is war because it is first and foremost a political object. France was not at war because it did not think of itself as being at war. This is, moreover, the criticism we have regularly levelled at recent external operations in which the enemy was not identified.

This confusion remains embarrassing.

JOVPN

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La Vigie Nr 191 : LV 191: Finnish Model | War, Crime and Punishment | Lorgnette: Jacques Perrin

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Letter from La Vigie dated April 27th 20221

Finnish Model

The war in Ukraine has prompted interest in Finland: this neighbouring country of Russia first resisted it during a war, preserved its independence throughout the Cold War, developed admirably at the end of the latter, joined the EU and is preparing to join the Alliance. Can this be a model for Ukraine?

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War, crime and punishment

With varying degrees of success, lawyers have always tried to build a body of law to limit the damage and suffering caused by wars. Can the current complex body of law, although not accepted by all states, be useful in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine?

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Lorgnette: Jacques Perrin

Jacques Perrin was a man of the cinema: one thinks of Cinema Paradiso, the marvellous L’empire du milieu du sud on Indochina and of course Microcosmos. But the strategist will remember above all his military films: 317th Section will remain one of the best war films ever made, which shows the life of a lieutenant at the head of his section in Indochina. L’honneur d’un capitaine shows the same challenges, this time at the level of a unit commander during the Algerian war. Two films made under the direction of Pierre Schoendorffer. La légion saute sur Kolwesi is more anecdotal.

This reality of war, at the level of the man, is obviously fascinating and anyone who has commanded men will find himself in it. The setting of these difficult conflicts deserved something more political: the unforgettable Crabe-tambour, with J. Rochefort and J. Dufilho, will delicately give a glimpse of the political dimensions of the war, never far from the command. Between the carnal and human thickness of the field and the more blind and indifferent objective of politics, it is the whole complex dimension of war that has been rendered.

Thank you, Mr. Perrin, for having shown it so simply. Rest in peace.

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JOCVP

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