LV 240: India at the centre of the power game | War economy | Lorgnette: Junta in trouble

Posted on by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 17 April 2024

 

India at the centre of the power game

Changes in the strategic context, marked by the growing importance of the Indo-Pacific, are tending to give the Indian Ocean a central role. India, the only credible power in the region, is taking advantage of this to position itself at the barycentre of the power game, between non-alignment and multi-alignment.

To read the article, click here

War economy

The war economy has returned to the public discourse in the wake of the war in Ukraine. Yet this concept belongs to historical circumstances (the twentieth century) that are far removed from the country’s current situation. So why are the authorities using this expression?

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: Junta in trouble

The Burmese junta continues to suffer setbacks. The Karen insurgents, who have rallied to the NUG (Government of National Unity), have just taken the town of Myawaddy, the most important crossing point to Thailand. Since the offensive launched last October, the junta’s opponents have scored a series of successes. While the junta retains control of the skies (thanks to Russian support), its troops on the ground are shaky. Defections are multiplying to such an extent that the junta decided in February to resort to conscription, which has exacerbated the population exodus. It is estimated that in the three years since the end of Burma’s democratic spring, the population of 54 million people has been made up of almost 100,000 refugees and 1.6 million displaced persons.

Is this the end? It is too early to say, because for the moment it is mainly the margins of the country that are being taken over by the rebellion, not the ethnic Burmese heartland, which remains under the overall control of the regime. The regime has little support, but many of its neighbours fear, without saying so, a Burmese chaos. China, which is officially silent on the principle of non-interference, is unhappy to see the Burmese alliance unravel: its aim was to develop direct access to the Bay of Bengal.

JOVPN

Subscribers: click directly on the links to read online or download the pdf issue (here), always with your login/password. New readers: read the article by issue, by clicking on each article (€2.5), or subscribe (discovery subscription €17, annual subscription €70, orga. subscription €300 excl. tax): here, the different options.

Photo credit: MEAphotogallery on VisualHunt.com

La Vigie Nr 195: Hopes and fears in Norway | At the gun show | Lorgnette: Colombian hope

Posted on by A M

Letter from La Vigie, dated 22 June 2022

Hopes and fears in Norway

Norway is undoubtedly a European country, even if it is not a member of the EU. An ally in NATO, this relatively close country is in fact largely unknown in France. This is a pity, because Norway’s strategic posture is actually very close to France’s, namely to cultivate a certain independence in the midst of our alliance system. It would be in our mutual interest to move closer to that.

To read the article, click here

At the gun show

The Eurosatory land armaments show saw a sharp increase in participation, both in quantity and quality. The war in Ukraine has focused attention on guns and drones, implicitly raising the question of how to manage the third dimension. President Macron’s speech announcing a “war economy” opens up a number of debates on the eve of a new legislature.

To read the article, click here

Lorgnette: Colombian hope

The result of the presidential elections in Colombia is unprecedented: the candidate G. Petro is from the left, which is unusual in this country, where the elites have always succeeded in appointing right-wing presidents who take a hard line in the fight against drug traffickers or the countless guerrilla groups in the Amazon jungle. The newly elected president is himself a former guerrilla… His vice-president, F. Márquez, has an African immigrant background, a first in this South American country.

This choice is radically new in this country beset by many difficulties and, as in Chile (LV 185), this duo crystallises all the hopes of so many “Nadies”, the “people”, the “Nemo”… all the poor, marginalised, left behind. Will the left-wing presidential duo live up to expectations? The risk is that the expectations are a bit unrealistic, in the short and medium term.

Having said that, let’s salute the democratic manoeuvre that remains hopeful in spite of everything: the people have the freedom to choose and express their will. The vote does carry a message. A message of hope.

Subscribers: click directly on the links to read online or download the pdf issue (here), always with your login/password. New readers: read the article by issue, by clicking on each article (€2.5), or subscribe (discovery subscription €17, annual subscription €70, orga. subscription €300 excl. tax): here, the different options.

JOCVP

Photo credit:  Cyrus Smith NW on VisualHunt.com