Letter from La Vigie dated 13 April 2022
Western positions
Behind the apparent reunification of the West in response to the conflict in Ukraine, differences are emerging between those who feel they have won in the affair, those who feel they have lost, those who are sticking to their traditional positions and those who are changing very quickly. So the current impression of unity is likely to fade in time.
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Ukraine between the Atlantic and the Urals
Here is an update at D+47 on the genesis, surprise, fog and current strategic dialectic of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which is now crystallising over the Donbass and Crimea.
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Lorgnette: various riots
Various riots have taken place in recent days around the world, with worrying motives.
In Sri Lanka, the economic crisis is worsening: it has arisen from the collapse of tourism following the pandemic but also from the drop in remittances from the diaspora. As a result, the supply of medicines was interrupted and the country sank.
In Peru, the sudden increase in fuel prices triggered the clashes that left six people dead. The rejection of a corrupt political power is also to be taken into account and reminds us of what happened in Chile (LV 185). However, the trigger remains the higher price of oil due to the conflict in Ukraine.
Finally, in China, a sudden rise in Covid contamination led the authorities to impose strict confinements, particularly in Shanghai, one of the country’s largest cities. The lack of supply led to surprisingly localized riots.
These examples and their various causes show that the economic situation is fragile after two years of the pandemic and that further shocks, such as sanctions, will likely have political consequences. This is obviously very worrying.
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JOCVP
photo credit: source